3 Round Mock draft

[Roy P]

I will begin this by apologizing. It's not the 7 round extravaganza that I usually put out this time of year. However, after noticing that I drafted 2 different TEs for Denver, I decided to call it quits. In my vision, the RBs are pushed down again in the draft, only to have a run on them. The CBs are in high demand, but apparently they are in short supply. The same can be said for DL and OLB for the 3/4. It seems that everybody wants one, but there are only so many chairs to claim. Yes, the draft is like a game of musical chairs. As for the WRs, it became apparent that there is some potential out there, but most GMs and coaches don't want to wait 3 years for a guy to develop.

Round 1
1 Det QB Matt Stafford
2 StL LT Eugene Monroe
3 KC ILB Aaron Curry
4 Sea LT Jason Smith
5 Cle OLB Brian Orakpo
6 Cinci OT Michael Oher
7 Oak DT BJ Raji
8 Jax QB Mark Sanchez
9 GB OLB Aaron Maybin
10 SF OT Andre Smith
11 Buf OLB Connor Barwin
12 Den CB Malcolm Jenkins
13 Was DE Everette Brown
14 NO CB Vontae Davis
15 Hou OLB Clay Matthews
16 SD ILB Rey Maualuga
17 NYJ WR Michael Crabtree
18 Den ILB Brian Cushing
19 TB DE Michael Johnson
20 Det OT William Beatty
21 Phi TE Brandon Pettigrew
22 Minn WR Jeremy Maclin
23 NEP OT Ebon Britton
24 Atl DT Peria Jerry
25 Mia ILB James Laurinaitis
26 Bal CB Darius Butler
27 Ind DT Ziggy Hood
28 Phi WR Hakeem Nicks
29 NYG WR Darius Heyward-Bey
30 Tenn DE Robert Ayers
31 Arz RB Knowshon Moreno
32 Pitt OG Max Unger

Round 2
33 Det CB Alphonso Smith
34 NEP OLB Larry English
35 StL RB Donald Brown
36 Cle DE Tyson Jackson
37 Sea QB Josh Freeman
38 Cinci OC Alex Mack
39 Jax OT Jamon Meredith
40 Oak WR Percy Harvin
41 GB DT Ron Brace
42 Buf OLB Clint Sintim
43 SF S William Moore
44 Mia CB Sean Smith
45 NYG TE Jared Cook
46 Hou SS Patrick Chung
47 NEP DE Jarron Gilbert
48 Den FS Louis Delmas
49 Chi WR Brian Robiskie
50 Cle RB LeSean McCoy
51 Dal WR Kenny Britt
52 NYJ CB DJ Moore
53 Phi OT Phil Loadholt
54 Minn CB Asher Allen
55 Atl DE Lawrence Sibury
56 Mia WR Louis Murphy
57 Bal ILB Marcus Freeman
58 NEP OG Andy Levitre
59 Car DE Paul Kruger
60 NYG DT Sen'Derrick Marks
61 Ind OT Gerald Cadogan
62 Tenn OG Duke Robinson
63 Arz CB Keenan Lewis
64 Pitt DE Fili Moala

Round 3
65 Det MLB Darry Beckwith
66 StL WR Juaquin Iglesias
67 KC RB Andre Brown
68 Sea FS Darcel McBath
69 Dal ILB Darnell Ellerbe
70 Cinci RB Rashad Jennings
71 Oak FS Rashad Johnson
72 Jax DT Dorrell Scott
73 GB CB Coye Francies
74 SF OLB Cody Brown
75 Buf TE James Casey
76 NYJ RB Javon Ringer
77 Hou S Chip Vaughn
78 SD DE Alex Magee
79 Den TE Chase Coffman
80 Was CB Victor Harris
81 TB LB Gerald McGrath
82 Det S Chris Clemons
83 GB OT Troy Kropog
84 Den TE Shawn Nelson
85 Phi WR Mohamed Massaquoi
86 Minn OT Herman Johnson
87 Mia FS David Bruton
88 Bal TE Cornelius Ingram
89 NEP WR Jarett Dillard
90 Atl TE Travis Beckum
91 NYG CB Captain Munnerlyn
92 Ind LB Jason Williams
93 Car QB Rhett Bomar
94 Tenn WR Mike Thomas
95 Arz LB Tyrone McKenzie
96 Pitt CB Mike Mickens
97 NEP CB Kevin Barnes
98 Cinci DE Mitch King
99 Chi OC Antoine Caldwell
100 NYG MLB Scott McKillop


I'll be willing to address any of the picks, but for the sake of clarity, I didn't want to put a little comment next to each pick.

[James]

You wouldn't take Crabtree at 15!? Wow . . .I think teaming him with Andre is a no doubter here. Most consider him the top prospect in the draft, no way we can pass up value like that, or at least trade the pick . . .

[Blitzwood]

Wow, that's work.

I guess I'll start with the obvious,

I don't see us drafting two safeties in the first three rounds.

I also don't see P.Harvin lasting until the 40th, he was the most dynamic player in the NCAA last year,
and lastly I don't see Shonn Greene anywhere, IMO he's a top 5 RB. Other than that, great job, I like the late run on WR's and the early run on OT's.

[painekiller]

Wow, that's work.

I guess I'll start with the obvious,

I don't see us drafting two safeties in the first three rounds.


I agree I don't see them drafting two safeties, but if they took these two guys, IMO, they will be set for years with two guys that no one will want to go over the middle against, and both are considered to studs in run game. Oh BTW they both have better cover skills then any safety we have had.

About the only pair of safeties I could compare them to is Taylor and Landry.

[painekiller]

Roy, 1st off excellent effort. A very realistic straight draft.

Where is Eric Woods? No way he falls to the 4th, or do you think Mayock, you and I are the only ones who like him? Isn't clearly ahead of Caldwell?

Also I hope you are wrong on Barwin going #11, I was thinking the other day, What if my desire for Matthews is colored, who else has his type skills but later in the draft? My answer was Barwin. Then I wondered what about him as 1st rounder? I was not ready to listen to the people tell me he is not 1st rounder, like they did about Raji, and Donald Brown. But a big case can be made for him. Even as SAM in the 4-3.

Along those lines I do not see Sidbury lasting to the late 2nd.

Lastly do you really think Freeman can be an ILB? That is different.

[Roy P]

You wouldn't take Crabtree at 15!? Wow . . .I think teaming him with Andre is a no doubter here. Most consider him the top prospect in the draft, no way we can pass up value like that, or at least trade the pick . . .

With the foot surgery and no 40 time, people begin to wonder about how skills will translate at the next level. I can think of a couple of USC WRs who were pretty good in college, but not able to separate in the NFL. That is why I have Crabtree sliding down the board. Also, he was not as tall as his college listed him. Lastly, he played in a system that is pretty prolific at putting up passing numbers. All in all, it's just a hunch on my part that he slides on draft day.

Why did the Texans pass on him? Gee, look at all the rebuttals I got about Jeremy Maclin about how we had the 3rd best offense, the 23rd ranked defense, Kevin Walters is a TD machine who we don't want to move to the slot, etc.

There were many times in which I wanted to make a trade, but it's too much of a headache to try to figure out who has which pick to trade and how much it's worth. So, in stead of trying to come up with one of a bazillion computations, I went with the straight no trade mock.

[Roy P]

I don't see us drafting two safeties in the first three rounds.

I also don't see P.Harvin lasting until the 40th, he was the most dynamic player in the NCAA last year,
and lastly I don't see Shonn Greene anywhere, IMO he's a top 5 RB. Other than that, great job, I like the late run on WR's and the early run on OT's.

Yeah, the first one was to fit a need and the second one was simply best player available in Chip Vaughn. I actually have Vaughn rated higher than Chung on my personal draft board.

Harvin lasted a while because I was looking at WRs who actually play Split End and have a history of running routes. Percy is an athlete, but not a polished WR. Like I said at the beginning, I think WRs are going to be late picks because it takes too much time before they start making an impact. Also, there is more need at other positions. It may be a while before we see a player like Ted Ginn picked in the 1st round.

Shonn Greene's absence was a mistake. I simply thought that he was off the board, and obviously he was not. After going through three rounds, I sorted by name and position to make sure I didn't have one guy being picked twice. If I were to try to slip him in somewhere, it would probably be at #76 instead of Javon Ringer. My mistake.

[Roy P]

I
About the only pair of safeties I could compare them to is Taylor and Landry.

That's what I call helping out the back end. ;)

[Nconroe]

Yes, most excellent effort. I would't mind at all if we got two safeties there, assuming they are top rated on the board at that time.

[Roy P]

Where is Eric Woods? No way he falls to the 4th, or do you think Mayock, you and I are the only ones who like him? Isn't clearly ahead of Caldwell?

Also I hope you are wrong on Barwin going #11,I wondered what about him as 1st rounder? But a big case can be made for him. Even as SAM in the 4-3.

Along those lines I do not see Sidbury lasting to the late 2nd.

Lastly do you really think Freeman can be an ILB? That is different.

Aww crap! That's why I post these things here so you guys can catch where I messed up. I originally placed Eric Woods with the Bengals, but then realized that Mack was still on the board and put him there. However, I forgot that Woods was then still eligible to be drafted. Therefore, if I were to try to put him in the mock now, it would probably be somewhere between #50 - #60 since those teams could use an interior OL like Woods.

Yeah, Buffalo was the team that I was looking to trade down, but decided to just have my mock without trades. Then I realized that I was dealing with Buffalo who don't give a rat's ass about what any draftnik thinks. They need a pass-rusher and they need a TE, why not get both? If I were to trade down and still hope to fill a "need" there are three guys in the first round (I think) that I'd look for. Matthews, Barwin, and Maybin. Buffalo decided to draft McCargo and Whitner when everyone else was saying WTF?

Sidbury has really gotten no respect in my estimation. He has telephone poles for arms and reminds me of a taller version of Elvis Dumervil. I've seen him as a 4th rounder, but with so many teams wanting to rush the passer, it's hard to dismiss his 40 and his 10. He played at Richmond, but people seem to forget that DeMarcus Ware played for Troy, so forget about level of competition. Realistically, I could see GB and Dom Capers falling in love with the kid and drafting him #41, but I had them jumping on Maybin in the 1st round. Could you imagine drafting Maybin and Sidbury for a 3/4?

I had Freeman going to a 3/4 team. He has decent size and pretty good athleticism. Basically, he allows Ray Lewis to do his thing and cleans up. That's what Bart Scott did. Everyone seems to think that you only put robots in the middle of a 3/4 like Junior Seau or Teddy Bruschi to hide their limitations. I would imagine that putting a guy with some speed in the middle of the 3/4 wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Roy P]

You wouldn't take Crabtree at 15!?
. . .

I just checked my draft board against my mock.

I would have picked
15. Jeremy Maclin
46. Eric Woods
77. Chip Vaughn

So, I've adjusted my board and now would pick
15. Matthews
46. Sidbury
77. Vaughn and I'll be honest, I'm teetering on whether I should move up Shonn Greene.

[mussop]

I just checked my draft board against my mock.

I would have picked
15. Jeremy Maclin
46. Eric Woods
77. Chip Vaughn

So, I've adjusted my board and now would pick
15. Matthews
46. Sidbury
77. Vaughn and I'll be honest, I'm teetering on whether I should move up Shonn Greene.

Roy what has Woods done to make you think he is a day 1 pick? I just dont see him going before the 4th round. Did I miss something. Im really curious.

[Keith]

77. Vaughn and I'll be honest, I'm teetering on whether I should move up Shonn Greene.

I have a hard time believing the Texans will be waiting past the third round to select a RB. There just doesn't seem to be an option they're crazy about in FA (though I'd give Tony Hunt a call, but apparently I'd be the only one talking to him), and I'm not buying that Chris Brown is in their plans.

Slaton's backup is getting to be a pretty big priority. He's probably stronger now being a rookie and all last year, but Slaton had a hard time handling the workload he had last season (remember when Kubiak basicially rested him for a game?).

[painekiller]

Roy what has Woods done to make you think he is a day 1 pick? I just dont see him going before the 4th round. Did I miss something. Im really curious.

Watch him play. He seems to be a perfect fit for what Gibbs wants in a center.

[Roy P]

Roy what has Woods done to make you think he is a day 1 pick? I just dont see him going before the 4th round. Did I miss something. Im really curious.

I'd love to get him in the 4th round. The thing is with so many teams going to a 3/4 defense, the OC has to be able to hold up against a NT. Woods did pretty well against B.J. Raji so I'd imagine his services will be sought after. The thing is he really has good athleticism to go along with strength, so he'd be a ZBS capable OL.

[Roy P]

I have a hard time believing the Texans will be waiting past the third round to select a RB. There just doesn't seem to be an option they're crazy about in FA (though I'd give Tony Hunt a call, but apparently I'd be the only one talking to him), and I'm not buying that Chris Brown is in their plans.

Yeah, yeah. I just moved up Greene ahead of Vaughn. Remember last season when I was begging the Texans to draft BenJarvis Green-Ellis? Then I wanted to snatch him off the practice squad of the Patriots? Problem would have been solved.

Anyway, this year's BJGE s Javarris Williams. Write it down. :rolleyes:

Maybe a trade for Jalen Parmele with the Ravens, Michael Bush with the Raiders, or DeShawn Wynn with the Packers could be worked out?

[jppaul]

Roy maybe I just need another pair of eyes but is Beanie Wells on there?

[mussop]

Watch him play. He seems to be a perfect fit for what Gibbs wants in a center.

How many teams are running ZB scheme now? Serious question.

[jppaul]

Washington, Denver, Oakland, Houston, Green Bay, Carolina

[Roy P]

Roy maybe I just need another pair of eyes but is Beanie Wells on there?

I can see now that I'm going to have to do this all over again. There's just way too many mistakes. It's another case of putting a guy in, then taking them out, only to forget to put him back in. Originally, Beanie was going to Arizona, then I saw Knowshon was still on the board, so I removed Wells for Moreno. So, that would put Wells with the Browns as the hometown hero to replace Jamal Lewis.

[Roy P]

How many teams are running ZB scheme now? Serious question.

While Woods would fit the ZBS, he's not a guy who can ONLY play in a ZBS. Any team who wants a C could plug him in. Most of the time, a ZBS C is a light guy like Nalen or McClure.

[NBT]

Draft Vaughn, forget about Chung!

[Roy P]

I can see now that I'm going to have to do this all over again.

Okay, and this time I inserted a 4th round and made some changes. Please review.

1st round
1 Det QB Matt Stafford - 1
2 StL LT Eugene Monroe - 8
3 KC ILB Aaron Curry - 4
4 Sea LT Jason Smith - 2
5 Cle OLB Brian Orakpo - 13
6 Cinci DE Everette Brown - 43 Big Miss on my part
7 Oak DT BJ Raji - 9
8 Jax QB Mark Sanchez - 5 I had this right to begin with but moved him down.
9 GB OLB Aaron Maybin - 11
10 SF OT Michael Oher - 23 That was a bit high now looking back at it.
11 Buf DE Connor Barwin - 46 Yeah, I'm happy to be wrong about this pick.
12 Den CB Malcolm Jenkins - 14
13 Was OT Andre Smith - 6 Well, he didn't slip as much as I thought.
14 NO CB Vontae Davis - 25 Could be great could flop.
15 Hou OLB Clay Matthews - 26 I drank the kool aid. I knew not to listen to John McClain.
16 SD ILB Rey Maualuga - 38 I still believe the Chargers blew this one.
17 NYJ WR Michael Crabtree - 10 I thought he'd slip, just not so much it appears.
18 Den ILB Brian Cushing - 15 I wonder if we considered trading down, but thought we'd lose our guy.
19 TB DE Michael Johnson - 70 There aren't that many owners in the NFL like Al Davis.
20 Det OT Ebon Britton - 39 The Jags got good value in my opinion.
21 Phi TE Brandon Pettigrew - 20 Not too far off
22 Minn WR Jeremy Maclin - 19
23 NEP CB Darius Butler - 41 New England waited and still got their guy
24 Atl DT Peria Jerry - 24 Nailed it!
25 Mia WR Percy Harvin - 22
26 Bal ILB James Laurinaitis - 35
27 Ind DT Ziggy Hood - 32
28 Phi WR Hakeem Nicks - 29 Just missed.
29 NYG WR Darius Heyward-Bey - 7 Should have listend to Michael Lombardi on this one.
30 Tenn DE Robert Ayers - 18
31 Arz RB Knowshon Moreno - 12 The need of defensive players led me down this path
32 Pitt DE Tyson Jackson - 3 Are you freakin' kidding me?

2nd round
33 Det CB Alphonso Smith - 37
34 NEP OT William Beatty - 60 This is when I was expecting a reach on OTs
35 StL RB Donald Brown - 27 I even knew this guy had 1st round talent.
36 Cle RB Beannie Wells - 31
37 Sea QB Josh Freeman - 19 Predicting when a QB will be selected is hard work.
38 Cinci OC Alex Mack - 21 My apologies to the Mack family.
39 Jax OT Jamon Meredith - 162 I guess I wasn't the only one who took him off the draft board.
40 Oak WR Louis Murphy - 124 This was my Al Davis reach. Big Al took him later - where he should have.
41 GB DT Ron Brace - 40
42 Buf OLB Marcus Freeman - 154 Oh my. Again, I bit on the measurable instead of my eyeballs. I took him off my board, but put him back on.
43 SF OLB Lawrence Sibury - 125 Man is this painful.
44 Mia CB Sean Smith - 61 Right team, right round, wrong pick.
45 NYG TE Jared Cook - 89 Another player I'm glad that I removed from "My guys"
46 Hou S William Moore - 55 I let my emotions get the better of me
47 NEP DE Jarron Gilbert - 68
48 Den SS Patrick Chung - 34
49 Chi WR Brian Robiskie - 36
50 Cle FS Louis Delmas - 33 Everyone loves this guy more than I do.
51 Dal WR Kenny Britt - 30 I was happy to be wrong about this guy.
52 NYJ CB DJ Moore - 119 A CB with slow 40 time - not a good combo
53 Phi OG Max Unger - 49 At least I knew we would pass on him.
54 Minn CB Asher Allen - 86 Another emotional pick
55 Atl OLB Clint Sintim - 45
56 Mia OLB Larry English - 16 I'm not a fan
57 Bal TE James Casey - 152 Wow, give Rick Smith a raise people.
58 NEP OC Eric Wood - 28 Now who said he was a 4th rounder?
59 Car DE Paul Kruger - 57
60 NYG RB LeSean McCoy - 53
61 Ind DT Sen'Derrick Marks - 62 Just a bit outside
62 Tenn OG Duke Robinson - 163 I was hoping they'd reach
63 Arz DE Fili Moala - 56
64 Pitt CB Keenan Lewis - 96 Right team, wrong round.

3rd round
65 Det MLB Darry Beckwith - Undrafted Free Agent. Could we please get his agent on the phone?
66 StL WR Juaquin Iglesias - 99
67 KC RB Andre Brown -129 Who would think KC would take another RB so early? Oh yeah, me. :(
68 Sea FS Darcel McBath - 48
69 Dal OT Phil Loadholt - 54
70 Cinci RB Shonn Greene - 65 That's why the JETS moved up.
71 Oak FS Rashad Johnson - 95
72 Jax DT Dorrell Scott - 103 They took a different DT (a guy I wanted in the 6th round)
73 GB RB Rashad Jennings - 250 This guy must have a LOT of baggage.
74 SF QB Rhett Bomar - 151 Another QB to f'ckd things up.
75 Buf TE Chase Coffman - 98
76 NYJ RB Javon Ringer - 173 Titans got a steal
77 Hou S Chip Vaughn - 116 Perhaps I shouldn't include the Texans in my mock drafts
78 SD OT Troy Kropog - 135 The OT run didn't happen like I thought.
79 Den TE Shawn Nelson - 121
80 Was WR Mike Thomas - 107 Too short to be this early
81 TB LB Gerald McGrath - 130 Titans got a steal
82 Det S Chris Clemons - 165
83 GB OT Gerald Cadogan - UDFA Glad I took him off my board too!
84 Den DE Alex Magee - 67
85 Phi OT Herman Johnson - 167
86 Minn OG Kraig Urbik - 79
87 Mia FS David Bruton - 114
88 Bal CB Mike Mickens - 227 Did the Cowboys really make me look this bad?
89 NEP WR Jarett Dillard - 144 I think the Jags did well here.
90 Atl TE Travis Beckum - 100
91 NYG LB Jason Williams - 69
92 Ind LB Darnell Ellerbe - UDFA Get Beckwith and this guy together, will ya?
93 Car QB Pat White - 44 Another QB messin with me.
94 Tenn WR Kevin Ogletree - UDFA I'm thinking we can sign him too.
95 Arz LB Tyrone McKenzie - 97 Not too bad
96 Pitt OT Fenuki Tupou - 159 I'm really off on the OTs
97 NEP OLB Cody Brown - 63 I thought I was one of the few who liked him that much.
98 Cinci MLB Scott McKillop - 146
99 Chi OC Antoine Caldwell - 77 Looks like Gibbs didn't think he'd last until the 4th round pick either.
100 NYG OG Andy Levitre - 51 My apologies to the Levitre family.

4th round
101 Dal SS Mike Hamlin - 166 Right team, wrong round.
102 KC OLB David Veikune - 52 Browns (I'm still calling that a reach)
103 StL CB Chris Owens - 90
104 Cle DE Mitch King - UDFA I thought somebody would like him
105 Sea CB Jairus Byrd - 42
106 Cinci OT Sebastian Vollmer - 58 That's 2 that I was late on.
107 Jax WR Kenny McKinley - 141
108 Mia ILB Jasper Brinkley - 150
109 GB CB Coye Francies - 191
110 Buf FS C.J. Spillman - UDFA
111 SF CB Morgan Trent - 179
112 Hou RB Cedric Peerman - 185
113 SD DT Ricky Jean-Francois - 244 WOW! I thought somebody would have bought him earlier.
114 Den DT Corvey Irvin - 93
115 NYJ QB Stephen McGee - 101
116 NO RB Glen Coffee - 74
117 Dal LB Zack Follett - 235 Big miss on my part.
118 NO OLB Jonathan Casillas - UDFA
119 Chi OT Joel Bell - UDFA
120 TB CB Captain Munnerlyn - 216 Now can you see why I didn't do more than 4 rounds?
121 Phi FS Sherrod Martin - 59
122 Hou CB Kevin Barnes - 80
123 Bal DE Kyle Moore - 117
124 NEP CB Victor Harris - 157 I hate slow CBs
125 Atl SS Emanual Cook - UDFA
126 Oak TE Cornelius Ingram - 153
127 Ind OG Trevor Canfield - 254
128 Car OG T.J. Lang - 109
129 NYG K Louie Sakoda - UDFA I hate predicting Kickers too.
130 Tenn CB Brandon Hughes - 148
131 Arz TE Cameron Morrah - 248 Almost a UDFA
132 Pitt OG Tyronne Green - 133 Almost a hit!
133 SD RB Kory Sheets - UDFA Never underestimate off field concerns.
134 SD SS Courtney Greene - 245 Almost a UDFA
135 Tenn DT Terrence Taylor - 136 Almost a Hit!
136 Ind DE Matt Shaughnessy - 71 Big Al did me again.

The lesson I learned here is NEVER do more than 3 rounds. Secondly, stick with your gut instincts on YOUR draft board. The guy that you want in the 2nd round may very well be there in the 4th round. Lastly, nobody knows nothing until after the draft. It's easy to come in and cherry pick who you could have gotten in the 7th round after the fact. Also, those hidden gems are there because everybody else is looking for something completely different on the 2nd day. I had a draft board of 67 players, but could have filled my slots with what I considered 5th round talent, or better with a draft board of 48. I thought Moore, Vaughn, and Brown were all 2nd round talented players and could have drafted all three of them after getting what I considered the 6th best player in the draft (3rd best for our roster). In fact, I could have traded down to 42 and gotten him along with more draft picks. That's why the Professionals get paid the big bucks.

[gunn]

I don't know about the order in which you have them, but I like the collection of players you have in the first 4 rounds Roy.

[Roy P]

I don't know if it is my subconcious or not, but I just went and compared my draft board vs. my mock draft and I would have made every pick that I projected for the Texans except for the #122. Interestingly enough, I would have drafted DE Kyle Moore if the draft went this way and I had the team right after us drafting him.

[dalemurphy]

Man, I just don't think I could leave Unger and EWood sitting there in the second round, not with Studdard and CWhite as my primary backups for a less than stellar group of starting interior olinemen... And, I would also have a hard time passing up LEnglish and Sintim.

To simplify, we gotta trade down out of 15 and collect a bucket full of second and third round picks!

[mussop]

Man, I just don't think I could leave Unger and EWood sitting there in the second round, not with Studdard and CWhite as my primary backups for a less than stellar group of starting interior olinemen... And, I would also have a hard time passing up LEnglish and Sintim.

To simplify, we gotta trade down out of 15 and collect a bucket full of second and third round picks!

I totally agree on both counts. If we have a chance in the second round to solidify the middle of our offensive line with a player that can play at a very high level for the next ten or twelve years then we would be crazy to pass him up. Hell Im ok with trading down and taking one with my first pick.

[NBT]

Not too bad a mock. I am especially mindful of Ced Peerman. As for the buckets of 2nd & 3rd rounders for trading down from #15, don't hold your breath.

[Roy P]

Man, I just don't think I could leave Unger and EWood sitting there in the second round, not with Studdard and CWhite as my primary backups for a less than stellar group of starting interior olinemen... And, I would also have a hard time passing up LEnglish and Sintim.

To simplify, we gotta trade down out of 15 and collect a bucket full of second and third round picks!


So you would rather pick up Unger to make our backups better? There may be more priority in making the starting Secondary improved from last season.

I think the bigger bang for the buck is to have a playmaker on the field for all three downs rather than a guy who comes in on passing situations only. Now, if you think English or Sintim can play the SAM on first and 2nd down, then you might have an argument. I just think that they may be more of a liability in space on 1st and 2nd down as a SAM than they make a positive impact on 3rd down.

I won't argue that these players have talent, I'm just trying to think who makes the TEAM better overall.

[Roy P]

Since there was a trade with Buf and Phi, I thought I'd update my first round to reflect that move....

1 Det QB Matt Stafford
2 StL LT Eugene Monroe
3 KC LT Jason Smith
4 Sea ILB Aaron Curry
5 Cle QB Mark Sanchez
6 Cinci DT BJ Raji
7 Oak OLB Brian Orakpo
8 Jax WR Michael Crabtree
9 GB OT Michael Oher
10 SF CB Malcolm Jenkins
11 Buf DE Everette Brown
12 Den OLB Aaron Maybin
13 Was OT Andre Smith
14 NO OLB Brian Cushing
15 Hou OLB Clay Matthews
16 SD ILB Rey Maualuga
17 NYJ DE Tyson Jackson
18 Den OLB Connor Barwin
19 TB QB Josh Freeman
20 Det DE Robert Ayers
21 Phi TE Brandon Pettigrew
22 Minn WR Jeremy Maclin
23 NEP CB Vontae Davis
24 Atl DE Michael Johnson
25 Mia WR Hakeem Nicks
26 Bal ILB James Laurinaitis
27 Ind DT Peria Jerry
28 Buf OT Ebon Britton
29 NYG WR Darius Heyward-Bey
30 Tenn DT Ziggy Hood
31 Arz RB Knowshon Moreno
32 Pitt OG Max Unger

[James]

If Cleveland drafts Mark Sanchez I'll eat my own nose.

[Bigtinylittle]

If Cleveland drafts Mark Sanchez I'll eat my own nose.

If no backs go until 31, the NFL has changed a lot more than I realized.

[Roy P]

If Cleveland drafts Mark Sanchez I'll eat my own nose.

They may have to when they trade Brady Quinn.

[Roy P]

If no backs go until 31, the NFL has changed a lot more than I realized.

We shall see. Perhaps one goes at #27, then #31.

[dalemurphy]

So you would rather pick up Unger to make our backups better? There may be more priority in making the starting Secondary improved from last season.

I think the bigger bang for the buck is to have a playmaker on the field for all three downs rather than a guy who comes in on passing situations only. Now, if you think English or Sintim can play the SAM on first and 2nd down, then you might have an argument. I just think that they may be more of a liability in space on 1st and 2nd down as a SAM than they make a positive impact on 3rd down.

I won't argue that these players have talent, I'm just trying to think who makes the TEAM better overall.

It seems like you are working off a lot of assumptions... For instance, the assumption that Unger can't beat out CMyers in the near future. Or, the assumption that our three interior olmen will all not miss time this year. Or, Chester Pitts will be re-signed before next season.

Even assuming all of that, I just don't think you can draft for immediate impact. Just take good players, particularly at positions where your depth is bad and then let competition, injuries, etc... work itself out.

[nero THE zero]

Oh BTW they both have better cover skills then any safety we have had.

You really think Patrick Chung has better coverage skills than Eugene Wilson?

[Roy P]

It seems like you are working off a lot of assumptions... For instance, the assumption that Unger can't beat out CMyers in the near future. Or, the assumption that our three interior olmen will all not miss time this year. Or, Chester Pitts will be re-signed before next season.

Even assuming all of that, I just don't think you can draft for immediate impact. Just take good players, particularly at positions where your depth is bad and then let competition, injuries, etc... work itself out.


Since nobody here works for the Texans, we have to work with assumptions. You don't have to agree with the premise and if you don't, you'll obviously come up with different conclusions.

It appears that you are assuming that Unger will beat out Myers and our interior OL will miss time. That's your perogative.

[Blitzwood]

Roy,

Don't you think we should spread our first 5 picks a little more than using 3 on DB's, especially since we still haven't seen what Barber and Molden are capable of doing?

I like the players, but don't know if they'll be riding the bench like the previous players mentioned were last year. Kubiak has some strange commitments to play players that is mindbogglingly, IMO.

[Roy P]

Roy,

Don't you think we should spread our first 5 picks a little more than using 3 on DB's, especially since we still haven't seen what Barber and Molden are capable of doing?


I've seen enough of Barber to know that he can be upgraded. If I had a chance to draft Troy Polamalu, I'm not going to pass on him because I have Barber and Harrison on my roster.

As long as I'm uncertain about Dunta Robinson, I don't mind adding a CB via the draft.

Now, my point of emphasis is to take the BPA during the draft. If they happen to be DBs, then so be it.

[Blitzwood]

I've seen enough of Barber to know that he can be upgraded. If I had a chance to draft Troy Polamalu, I'm not going to pass on him because I have Barber and Harrison on my roster.



We'd probably never know we had a T.Polamalu because he'd be rinding the bench while some overpaid journeyman got the minutes.:mad:

That's the point.

[Roy P]

Well, If I were the GM and the coach kept T. P. on the bench while a lesser talent got all the playing time, I might start looking for a new coach.

I've talked about this before, but I am not sure how the relationship between Smith is vs. how it should be. I understand the two needing to work together to develop an identity and a philosophy. However, I buy into the Head Coach working for the GM model. Maybe it's my prior military service, but that's just the way I see it. My observations of Smith is that he takes a lot of input from Kubiak. I would imagine if Kubiak fails to make progress this season, then both would have to be shown the door. Smith would not be able to say, I wanted Kubiak to play better player than player X but he just wouldn't listen, so I passed on drafting/signing player Y.

[barrett]

We'd probably never know we had a T.Polamalu because he'd be rinding the bench while some overpaid journeyman got the minutes.:mad:

That's the point.

And where do you think this is happening? You aren't attempting to describe the situation at safety I hope.

[Blitzwood]

All I'm saying is if we draft for example William Moore and Chip Vaughn in the 2nd and 3rd respectively, whose to say they're gonna get the nod over Wilson, Ferguson, Barber, Harrison, Molden, Bennett, Reeves, Williams, and Pittman. How many DB's do we really need to draft this year with so many guys already fighting for minutes.

[Nconroe]

I guess the thought is if you have 23rd ranked defense a few positions ought to be upgradeable from guys you had the year before, although tough for a rookie to beat out a good veteran for playing time. And you need 82 guys at start of camp, and about 30 don't make it. New coaches and a year more experience will help as well.

[painekiller]

You really think Patrick Chung has better coverage skills than Eugene Wilson?

OK you got me with that one, but Chung's overall game is much better at this point.

[Roy P]

1st round
1 Det QB Matt Stafford - 1
2 StL LT Eugene Monroe - 8
3 KC ILB Aaron Curry - 4
4 Sea LT Jason Smith - 2
5 Cle OLB Brian Orakpo - 13
6 Cinci DE Everette Brown - 43 Big Miss on my part
7 Oak DT BJ Raji - 9
8 Jax QB Mark Sanchez - 5 I had this right to begin with but moved him down.
9 GB OLB Aaron Maybin - 11
10 SF OT Michael Oher - 23 That was a bit high now looking back at it.
11 Buf DE Connor Barwin - 46 Yeah, I'm happy to be wrong about this pick.
12 Den CB Malcolm Jenkins - 14
13 Was OT Andre Smith - 6 Well, he didn't slip as much as I thought.
14 NO CB Vontae Davis - 25 Could be great could flop.
15 Hou OLB Clay Matthews - 26 I drank the kool aid. I knew not to listen to John McClain.
16 SD ILB Rey Maualuga - 38 I still believe the Chargers blew this one.
17 NYJ WR Michael Crabtree - 10 I thought he'd slip, just not so much it appears.
18 Den ILB Brian Cushing - 15 I wonder if we considered trading down, but thought we'd lose our guy.
19 TB DE Michael Johnson - 70 There aren't that many owners in the NFL like Al Davis.
20 Det OT Ebon Britton - 39 The Jags got good value in my opinion.
21 Phi TE Brandon Pettigrew - 20 Not too far off
22 Minn WR Jeremy Maclin - 19
23 NEP CB Darius Butler - 41 New England waited and still got their guy
24 Atl DT Peria Jerry - 24 Nailed it!
25 Mia WR Percy Harvin - 22
26 Bal ILB James Laurinaitis - 35
27 Ind DT Ziggy Hood - 32
28 Phi WR Hakeem Nicks - 29 Just missed.
29 NYG WR Darius Heyward-Bey - 7 Should have listend to Michael Lombardi on this one.
30 Tenn DE Robert Ayers - 18
31 Arz RB Knowshon Moreno - 12 The need of defensive players led me down this path
32 Pitt DE Tyson Jackson - 3 Are you freakin' kidding me?

2nd round
33 Det CB Alphonso Smith - 37
34 NEP OT William Beatty - 60 This is when I was expecting a reach on OTs
35 StL RB Donald Brown - 27 I even knew this guy had 1st round talent.
36 Cle RB Beannie Wells - 31
37 Sea QB Josh Freeman - 19 Predicting when a QB will be selected is hard work.
38 Cinci OC Alex Mack - 21 My apologies to the Mack family.
39 Jax OT Jamon Meredith - 162 I guess I wasn't the only one who took him off the draft board.
40 Oak WR Louis Murphy - 124 This was my Al Davis reach. Big Al took him later - where he should have.
41 GB DT Ron Brace - 40
42 Buf OLB Marcus Freeman - 154 Oh my. Again, I bit on the measurable instead of my eyeballs. I took him off my board, but put him back on.
43 SF OLB Lawrence Sibury - 125 Man is this painful.
44 Mia CB Sean Smith - 61 Right team, right round, wrong pick.
45 NYG TE Jared Cook - 89 Another player I'm glad that I removed from "My guys"
46 Hou S William Moore - 55 I let my emotions get the better of me
47 NEP DE Jarron Gilbert - 68
48 Den SS Patrick Chung - 34
49 Chi WR Brian Robiskie - 36
50 Cle FS Louis Delmas - 33 Everyone loves this guy more than I do.
51 Dal WR Kenny Britt - 30 I was happy to be wrong about this guy.
52 NYJ CB DJ Moore - 119 A CB with slow 40 time - not a good combo
53 Phi OG Max Unger - 49 At least I knew we would pass on him.
54 Minn CB Asher Allen - 86 Another emotional pick
55 Atl OLB Clint Sintim - 45
56 Mia OLB Larry English - 16 I'm not a fan
57 Bal TE James Casey - 152 Wow, give Rick Smith a raise people.
58 NEP OC Eric Wood - 28 Now who said he was a 4th rounder?
59 Car DE Paul Kruger - 57
60 NYG RB LeSean McCoy - 53
61 Ind DT Sen'Derrick Marks - 62 Just a bit outside
62 Tenn OG Duke Robinson - 163 I was hoping they'd reach
63 Arz DE Fili Moala - 56
64 Pitt CB Keenan Lewis - 96 Right team, wrong round.

3rd round
65 Det MLB Darry Beckwith - Undrafted Free Agent. Could we please get his agent on the phone?
66 StL WR Juaquin Iglesias - 99
67 KC RB Andre Brown -129 Who would think KC would take another RB so early? Oh yeah, me. :(
68 Sea FS Darcel McBath - 48
69 Dal OT Phil Loadholt - 54
70 Cinci RB Shonn Greene - 65 That's why the JETS moved up.
71 Oak FS Rashad Johnson - 95
72 Jax DT Dorrell Scott - 103 They took a different DT (a guy I wanted in the 6th round)
73 GB RB Rashad Jennings - 250 This guy must have a LOT of baggage.
74 SF QB Rhett Bomar - 151 Another QB to f'ckd things up.
75 Buf TE Chase Coffman - 98
76 NYJ RB Javon Ringer - 173 Titans got a steal
77 Hou S Chip Vaughn - 116 Perhaps I shouldn't include the Texans in my mock drafts
78 SD OT Troy Kropog - 135 The OT run didn't happen like I thought.
79 Den TE Shawn Nelson - 121
80 Was WR Mike Thomas - 107 Too short to be this early
81 TB LB Gerald McGrath - 130 Titans got a steal
82 Det S Chris Clemons - 165
83 GB OT Gerald Cadogan - UDFA Glad I took him off my board too!
84 Den DE Alex Magee - 67
85 Phi OT Herman Johnson - 167
86 Minn OG Kraig Urbik - 79
87 Mia FS David Bruton - 114
88 Bal CB Mike Mickens - 227 Did the Cowboys really make me look this bad?
89 NEP WR Jarett Dillard - 144 I think the Jags did well here.
90 Atl TE Travis Beckum - 100
91 NYG LB Jason Williams - 69
92 Ind LB Darnell Ellerbe - UDFA Get Beckwith and this guy together, will ya?
93 Car QB Pat White - 44 Another QB messin with me.
94 Tenn WR Kevin Ogletree - UDFA I'm thinking we can sign him too.
95 Arz LB Tyrone McKenzie - 97 Not too bad
96 Pitt OT Fenuki Tupou - 159 I'm really off on the OTs
97 NEP OLB Cody Brown - 63 I thought I was one of the few who liked him that much.
98 Cinci MLB Scott McKillop - 146
99 Chi OC Antoine Caldwell - 77 Looks like Gibbs didn't think he'd last until the 4th round pick either.
100 NYG OG Andy Levitre - 51 My apologies to the Levitre family.

4th round
101 Dal SS Mike Hamlin - 166 Right team, wrong round.
102 KC OLB David Veikune - 52 Browns (I'm still calling that a reach)
103 StL CB Chris Owens - 90
104 Cle DE Mitch King - UDFA I thought somebody would like him
105 Sea CB Jairus Byrd - 42
106 Cinci OT Sebastian Vollmer - 58 That's 2 that I was late on.
107 Jax WR Kenny McKinley - 141
108 Mia ILB Jasper Brinkley - 150
109 GB CB Coye Francies - 191
110 Buf FS C.J. Spillman - UDFA
111 SF CB Morgan Trent - 179
112 Hou RB Cedric Peerman - 185
113 SD DT Ricky Jean-Francois - 244 WOW! I thought somebody would have bought him earlier.
114 Den DT Corvey Irvin - 93
115 NYJ QB Stephen McGee - 101
116 NO RB Glen Coffee - 74
117 Dal LB Zack Follett - 235 Big miss on my part.
118 NO OLB Jonathan Casillas - UDFA
119 Chi OT Joel Bell - UDFA
120 TB CB Captain Munnerlyn - 216 Now can you see why I didn't do more than 4 rounds?
121 Phi FS Sherrod Martin - 59
122 Hou CB Kevin Barnes - 80
123 Bal DE Kyle Moore - 117
124 NEP CB Victor Harris - 157 I hate slow CBs
125 Atl SS Emanual Cook - UDFA
126 Oak TE Cornelius Ingram - 153
127 Ind OG Trevor Canfield - 254
128 Car OG T.J. Lang - 109
129 NYG K Louie Sakoda - UDFA I hate predicting Kickers too.
130 Tenn CB Brandon Hughes - 148
131 Arz TE Cameron Morrah - 248 Almost a UDFA
132 Pitt OG Tyronne Green - 133 Almost a hit!
133 SD RB Kory Sheets - UDFA Never underestimate off field concerns.
134 SD SS Courtney Greene - 245 Almost a UDFA
135 Tenn DT Terrence Taylor - 136 Almost a Hit!
136 Ind DE Matt Shaughnessy - 71 Big Al did me again.

.

Just doing a little Monday evening quarterbacking and seeing how I did on my mock draft.

The lesson I learned here is NEVER do more than 3 rounds. Secondly, stick with your gut instincts on YOUR draft board. The guy that you want in the 2nd round may very well be there in the 4th round. Lastly, nobody knows nothing until after the draft. It's easy to come in and cherry pick who you could have gotten in the 7th round after the fact. Also, those hidden gems are there because everybody else is looking for something completely different on the 2nd day. I had a draft board of 67 players, but could have filled my slots with what I considered 5th round talent, or better with a draft board of 48. I thought Moore, Vaughn, and Brown were all 2nd round talented players and could have drafted all three of them after getting what I considered the 6th best player in the draft (3rd best for our roster). In fact, I could have traded down to 42 and gotten him along with more draft picks. That's why the Professionals get paid the big bucks

[Nconroe]

Thanks Roy for all your great insights and sharing your hard work. You helped me feel much more informed this year.

[dalemurphy]

Just doing a little Monday evening quarterbacking and seeing how I did on my mock draft.

The lesson I learned here is NEVER do more than 3 rounds. Secondly, stick with your gut instincts on YOUR draft board. The guy that you want in the 2nd round may very well be there in the 4th round. Lastly, nobody knows nothing until after the draft. It's easy to come in and cherry pick who you could have gotten in the 7th round after the fact. Also, those hidden gems are there because everybody else is looking for something completely different on the 2nd day. I had a draft board of 67 players, but could have filled my slots with what I considered 5th round talent, or better with a draft board of 48. I thought Moore, Vaughn, and Brown were all 2nd round talented players and could have drafted all three of them after getting what I considered the 6th best player in the draft (3rd best for our roster). In fact, I could have traded down to 42 and gotten him along with more draft picks. That's why the Professionals get paid the big bucks


Yeah, the mocks and forecasts are kind of silly. However, they provide a genuine service for us. They give us a framework to discuss team needs and also to talk about the exiting college talent. So, here's hoping you subject yourself to some more humble pie next year with a lot of 7 round mock drafts. I'll be complicit. Next year we can all be a little more aware that it is an exercise only and perhaps we won't sit around on draft day screaming that a guy we had rated 45th is sitting on the board in the 4th round.

[popanot]

No disrespect to anyone because we all have a right to do what they want with their own time, but I pay much more attention to player/team analysis and discussion than I do to someone's mock. That includes here as well as the Interwebs. Mocks are so damn silly to me and it's laughable at how wrong most people are on them. Especially ones that go beyond the 1rst or 2nd round.

[Bigtinylittle]

I also want to add my thanks to Roy. I always read all his posts. One of my goals these days is to learn all I can about the Texans, and predraft predictions help me do that.

However, I do agree with Papanot that player/team analysis and discussion is ultimately much more important.