The Argument for Trading Up?

[Keith]

Something to think about before rejoining our trading down daydream already in progress...

It seems like there is now more evidence than ever before that the Texans should consider any and every opportunity to trade down from the 15th overall pick. But in a draft where the first round talent is projected to be subpar, how much trade compensation is needed to move even farther away from acquiring any of it?

http://www.inthebullseye.com/archive/2009/20090403.html

[papabear]

can't go with you on this one Keith...even though I see your point. Trading up in a weak draft is even more dangerous because you are likely to overvalue one of the supposed stars.

I'm not convinced that this draft is all that weak anyway. It doesn't have the star power at the top of the draft like the year we got Mario, but I think there's plenty of good football players in the first few rounds. It's always easy to look at past drafts and say that so and so would have been worth trading up for, but Looking at past drafts can only tell you so much because each player is different. I will almost always choose trading back and giving myself another role of the dice if that option is available. Sure, sometimes you might miss on a good pick, but I think your better off in the long run. At the end of the day it all comes down to how good a job you do scouting, and how much you trust those scouting reports.

[Keith]

First, I'm not necessarily saying trading up is the way to go; I'm just fearful that trading down seems to be the only option according to more and more fans.

Second, I agree that there's some talent to be had in the mid rounds, like 2-4 or so, but this is a particularly weak first round. If the Texans are going to stay in the first, and there aren't 12-15 first round graded players they want, then they either need to move up to get someone that can have an impact, or move the heck out, like all the way down to 28 or so and stockpile picks.

A lot of course ought to be determined in how the top 10 shakes out, moving up higher than that is cost prohibitive, but I wonder just what options the team will really like when #15 is on the clock.

[Roy P]

Something to think about before rejoining our trading down daydream already in progress...



http://www.inthebullseye.com/archive/2009/20090403.html

I've said that moving up to #11 is probably as high as I'd be willing to go. That would cost us #15 and #77 (our 3rd round pick).

The question then becomes, who is worthy of trading up for? My top guy is Aaron Curry. While I understand that many experts agree that this guy is a top 5 pick, at worst, there is a slim chance he could fall on draft day. Curry would fill a need and be the BPA.

Next in line would be Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown. The problem is that we spent some pretty good money on Antonio Smith to play DE opposite of Mario Williams. Would the Texans really give up a 3rd round pick plus additional guaranteed money for a "situational pass-rusher" after signing Smith? That seems to be steep price to pay after already paying.

I wouldn't imagine the team vying for the services of Jeremy Maclin, even if I do love the idea of having him replace Jacoby Jones as our returner. This team is wanting to make an impact on the defensive side of the ball, come Hell or high water.

So, who is a top prospect who may fall out of the top 10 that would make an impact on defense. The pot smoking, run stuffing, 330lbs+ NT. Raji may be on the board and Denver would probably love to see him at #12. So, in order for BJ to don a Texans jersey, that may require a trade up. While I can see the potential impact Raji may provide, I have to make one thing perfectly clear: Raji is NOT Vince Wilfok. Wilfork was a 323lbs prospect who ran a 5.08-40, 4.50-shuttle, 7.62-cone, with 36 reps on the bench. In comparison, Raji did 5.12-40, 4.68-shuttle, 7.90-cone, with 33 reps. Wilfork also was selected #21 overall without a history of marijuana usage and academic suspension.

So, Curry is a player who I would definitely trade up to get from #11. Orakpo is more realistic but not from a Texans point of view. Raji is the most probable, but I'd have my doubts.

[Keith]

Oh man, I was in love with Wilfork in '04. I had him, Sean Taylor and Robert Gallery as my top three back then.

I agree on your trade up targets. Curry is a pipe dream, but a nice one.

I understand that Orakpo or Brown would be 'situational', but these players would fill exactly the situations (1) where a rookie on defense can provide an "impact", and (2) where this defense needs the most help.

So what if a RDE is "situational"? I don't need an everydown defensive player to qualify for what the Texans need. I look to the Giants the last couple years and all those pass rushers they had and can only wish the Texans would supplement Mario, Antonio, and friends with another sackmaster, sliding Antonio inside on 3rd downs if he doesn't need the breather.

I also realize that for a lot of you, I'm preaching to the choir, so I'll stop ranting here. But this is one aspect of the parallel to 2005 that prompted me to type out that article - - that the targets to move up were also pass rushers.

No one knows whether Orakpo and others are anywhere near that level of quality, but what seems probable to me is that trading down or out of the first round lowers the team's chances of finding that impact player the defense needs. So long as Rick Smith gets good value either way, I won't be upset, but I don't want to close off the notion that moving up, not down, might be the way to go in THIS draft.

[Roy P]

I understand that Orakpo or Brown would be 'situational', but these players would fill exactly the situations (1) where a rookie on defense can provide an "impact", and (2) where this defense needs the most help.

So what if a RDE is "situational"? I don't need an everydown defensive player to qualify for what the Texans need. I look to the Giants the last couple years and all those pass rushers they had and can only wish the Texans would supplement Mario, Antonio, and friends with another sackmaster, sliding Antonio inside on 3rd downs if he doesn't need the breather.


No one knows whether Orakpo and others are anywhere near that level of quality, but what seems probable to me is that trading down or out of the first round lowers the team's chances of finding that impact player the defense needs.

If I were the GM and Mr. McNair told me I could only trade up for a defensive player, Curry or Orakpo would be it. Otherwise, I'm standing pat if I can't work a trade down. Orarkpo is a physical freak going by his measurables. In the mold of Mario Williams in that a man that big should be able to move his body that well.

[nunusguy]

I agree that Curry is one player that would be worth moving up for, but just how far up would be the issue ? And I think he will fall, once again just how much who knows ? Its gonna hurt him big-time with so many more teams going to the 3-4. His very impessive abilities/skills as a 4-3 WIL is irrelevant in the world of 3-4 schemes. And I dunno but think there's now something like a half dozen 3-4 teams drafting ahead of the Texans ?
For example I can't see the Chiefs taking Curry at #3 despite gobs of mocks going with that scenario ? They're one of many converting to the 3-4 and nobody is gonna give the #3 overall for an inside LB (in the 3-4 or 4-3). And we don't know if Curry can be the pass-rusher to play OLB in the 3-4 in the NFL, but there's no doubt about the pass-rushing skills of an Orakpo (for example) whos climbing on all of those 3-4 Boards while Currys going the other way.

[Keith]

According to PFT (http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/13/jags-trying-to-trade-out-of-the-top-ten/), pretty much everyone wants to trade down. Maybe a bargain price could be had if Curry slips?


As the 2009 draft approaches, several teams in the top ten actively are trying to trade out of it.

We’re hearing that this group includes the Lions, Chiefs, and Browns.

It also includes the Jaguars, whom we’re told are desperately trying to get out of the eighth overall spot in the draft.

But the Jags currently can find no takers.

Nor can any of the other teams in the top ten. ...

[TexanJedi]

I think Seattle is hoping Curry "drops" to #4 where they will jump all over him. I don't think he gets further than that, too bad though.

[painekiller]

According to PFT (http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/13/jags-trying-to-trade-out-of-the-top-ten/), pretty much everyone wants to trade down. Maybe a bargain price could be had if Curry slips?

No real top tier talent in this draft, means some guys are going to be extrememly over paid. The top of this draft is almost as bad as the 2002 draft.

[dalemurphy]

No real top tier talent in this draft, means some guys are going to be extrememly over paid. The top of this draft is almost as bad as the 2002 draft.

Some teams like Detroit just can't buy a break. You would think that going winless would have some benefit. Instead, they're stuck trying to figure out what 2nd level talent they want to give a $30 million signing bonus to. I would love to see Detroit refuse to pick. It needs to happen because the rookie scale at the top of the draft is such a joke and needs to be exposed.

[Roy P]

They're one of many converting to the 3-4 and nobody is gonna give the #3 overall for an inside LB (in the 3-4 or 4-3).

In 1996 the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Kevin Hardy at #2 overall. Dick Juaron was the DC at the time, so I think they were or 4-3 team. John Mobley and Reggie Brown were also drafted by the Broncos and Lions. Meanwhile, at #26 the Ravens got some ILB named Ray Lewis. I'm just going to put aside how schemes affect a players worth for a second and consider this. Might the Jags, if given the opportunity at a re-do, select Ray Lewis even if he only played in the middle? Perhaps Capers could have used him once Juaron got fired and dandy Dom brought in the 3-4.

I realize the premium placed on pass-rushers, but there is something to be said about a sideline-to-sideline tackling machine who you can build ANY defense around. I'm not too sure if the Rams might not take Curry #2.