Can Slaton be a Feature Back?

[dadmg]

I started this post as a reply to Bob in the Grading thread, but its so far off the track of the thread that I decided to post it here on its own.


Slaton is a good choice if he isn't overworked and he learns not to fumble. He needs to be part of a RB-by-committee, not the feature back.

I kind of agree with the this and kind of don't.

I do believe Slaton can be a featured back, just not one with a Larry Johnson/Willie Parker caliber load. Then again, no back should shoulder that big of a load if you want them to last more than a few years. I think every team should try to have a backup that's decent enough to get at least 1/3 of the team's carries. That said, I think Slaton has a frame that can stand stand a reasonable feature load.

This thought process of mine is based on a posting (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=489) I read over at Pro Reference Football's blog by Chase Stuart awhile back. Its interesting reading. The posting examined the BMI of some of the most successful backs as opposed to strictly weight (the initial section examines the top 50 rushers, then moves on to current younger RBs, then to rookies). This takes into account some backs that were/are considered "small" by the media who are actually well-built such as Barry Sanders and Maurice Jones-Drew, each of whom had compact bodies but well-muscled thighs. Here are some BMI's for a sampling of young RBs that haven't hit 5000 yards yet, from the post (first column: yards; second: height in inches; third: weight in pounds; fourth: BMI)

Maurice Jones-Drew 1709 68 205 31.2
Willis McGahee 4572 72 228 30.9
Brian Westbrook 4785 68 200 30.4
Larry Johnson 4764 73 228 30.1
Willie Parker 4198 70 209 30.0
Joseph Addai 2153 71 210 29.3
Adrian Peterson 1341 73 217 28.6
Reggie Bush 1146 72 200 27.1

Based on his combine numbers (5'9", 197 lbs, which is also what the Texans' site lists him at), Slaton's BMI comes in right around Addai level (29.1) (or if you wish, Edgerrin James who's a 29.0) and a bit below their average for the top 50 rushers of all-time (29.6). If he packs on 3-4 pounds of muscle on an NFL weight training regimen, he's at that 29.6 level and 5-6 lbs would put him in their ideal 30 range.

Slaton may not be built like a Jonathan Stewart, but I think his shortness misleads as to his size. The focus of the post, Darren McFadden, comes in at only around 27 (27.6 by the rumored 215 weight, although he checked in at the combine at 210). Slaton's 29.1 comes in just barely below Mendenhall's 29.3, and I don't see many people suggesting Mendenhall will likely need to be a part-time back. He's already better built than Tiki Barber/Clinton Portis, who are in the 28.6/28.7 range, not to mention the last feature back in an Alex Gibbs system, Warrick Dunn and his tiny 26.6. Actually, now that I notice it many of the RBs that have run in this system have had lower BMIs than Slaton (Selvin Young: 28.9, Terrell Davis: 28.7, Portis: 28.6, Norwood 27.8, Dunn 26.6). Only Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary came in at 30 or higher. Tatum Bell came out at 5'11, 190 (26.5) and now clocks in at 213 (29.7) according to his NFL.com profile, although I don't know what size he was in Denver.

Slaton won't be a workhorse but I believe he at least has the frame to be considered for a featured load, especially with what that now constitutes. Most teams are going away from putting all of the carries on one back: the carries leader this year was the lowest in a non-strike year since 1976 - which was before the 16 game schedule - although rookie coach Tomlin had Parker on a career-killing pace before he broke his leg. The top two RBs in carries this year (Portis, James) had BMIs of 28.6, 29.0, although the next few came in at 30+. Slaton shouldn't have much problem keeping up with a feature back role if he's good enough, especially if we use some of our RB depth to spell him properly.

[Keith]

I think this is some sound analysis.

Perhaps a corrollary here to the BMI theory, a back's ability to not absorb a lot of "head-on" hits also helps the small-to-medium backs with average BMI become feature backs and stay injury-free.

I haven't seen enough of Slaton yet to know whether he is this type of inside runner, but I think this little lack of shiftiness in the bigger backs is what shortens their careers, especially after a season or two with heavy, feature back-type workloads.

I'm optimistic that in this system Slaton can someday be a feature back, with 15-20 touches per game rushing and receiving, assuming he can see the field as a blocker.

He might be part of a three-headed approach with Brown and Green this year, at least until Brown and/or Green get hurt, but it wouldn't surprise me if Slaton gets that kind of workload as the season progresses if Kubiak and Co. can trust him in picking up a blitzer.

[nero THE zero]

Very nice analysis. This is the type of quality posting that I love to read.

Given your premise, Slaton is obviously built enough to carry a starter's load, but I don't think he'll be asked to do that off the bat. Given the fact that he is a rookie, he will have to pay his dues, learn the scheme, prove that he can pass protect, and prove he can hold onto the ball before he gets any kind of significant PT.

Also, I think he was brought in as an insurance policy and a change of pace kind of guy. There's no question in my mind that some combination of Chris Brown and Ahman Green or Chris Taylor will be our RBBC. I think, given their injury history, Slaton will be slotted behind them in case one goes down with an injury. In due time I do agree with your conclusion that Slaton could be getting the majority of carries in a RBBC, but I certainly don't think it's this year and I hope it's not next year.

[Roy P]

I see Slaton as a 7 - 15 carries per game type RB. Who falls in that catagory from last season?

Name-------------Carries----CPG----Rushing Yards
Fred Taylor--------223------14.9-----1202
Marion Barber-----204------12.8------975
Chester Taylor-----157------11.2------844
Laurence Maroney--185------14.2------835
Maurice Jones-Drew-167----11.1------768
Selvin Young-------140------9.3-------729
DeAngelo Williams---144------9--------717
Jerious Norwood----103------6.9------613
Julius Jones--------164-----10.2------588
Reggie Bush-------157-----13.1------581

[dadmg]

I don't think Slaton will be a starter right out of the gates because he will need to learn to be a better pass blocker. I wouldn't be surprised if he was very limited early for just this reason; why send out a back for consistent third down duty if he can't be counted on to pick up a blitzer if needed?

That said, the depth chart ahead of him doesn't look like anything special at the moment. I think Green's about at the end of the line. Chris Brown has had serious trouble staying healthy and effective, although there are renewed hopes for him in this scheme. And Taylor, for all the hope he represents, is a back coming off an ACL injury and it usually takes another year to get back to full speed. The path is clear if he can take it.

[dadmg]

I see Slaton as a 7 - 15 carries per game type RB.



I'm optimistic that in this system Slaton can someday be a feature back, with 15-20 touches per game rushing and receiving, assuming he can see the field as a blocker.


Myself, I'd like to see him in the 15-18 carries range (240-288 per season). Then again, if I was a head coach, I would generally prefer to keep my lead back in that range if I could help it. If I had a top-level back and a mediocre backup, I might let him go a bit more but once you get around 350 (roughly 22 carries per game) you're tempting fate. Higher than that and you're really playing with fire, especially if you have a playoff team (which will extend his workload further). I've done quite a bit of charting on workloads and very few backs since the NFL switched to a 16 game schedule have proven to be able to consistently run in that range without trouble.

[NickO]

Looks like the days of the single workhorse back are dwindling. Ahman's showed me nothing so far, I wouldn't be hurt to see him gone.

I LOVED the Brown acquisition. I've admired him even since he tore my horns a new one in the Big XII championship...and that was a zone blocking scheme he ran in at Colorado. His injury problems are less of a concern to me now that Slaton's around for a little more depth.

[painekiller]

I would like to see Slaton get 10-15 touches a game. Bring him in to make the other team respond to him. One chop block and he has the ability to go to the house.

[Vinny]

I see him as a Chris Brown type of change of pace back....but not a feature back. He will split out to the slot and will be used like Reggie Bush more than he will be used as a feature back methinks.

[HPF Bob]

Feature backs are typically 25-30 carry/game type players. To call someone a feature back and then say you hope he gets 15 touches is contradictory. Feature backs are guys you give the rock to over and over again whether you are ahead or behind to wear down the defense (think LJ, Tomlinson, Peterson).

Slaton is not that sort of guy although he was used heavily by West Virginia, often in a zone read offense with Pat White where White read the defense and either handed it to Slaton or ran with it himself. It was clear that Slaton got banged up doing that in college and he needs a lighter workload in the pros so he won't wear down.

As for picking up the blitz, all backs need to know how to do this but they also need to know how to swing out for the outlet pass or run a sprint draw. Those are two other ways you can beat the blitz and those are the sort of plays I think Slaton can excel in. He needs just a little daylight to turn a big play but he needs to be fresh.

Let one of the other backs do the heavy lifting on first and second down. Slaton should be used sort of like Allen Pinkett was with the old Oilers.

[nunusguy]

Honestly, between Green, Brown, & Taylor how can we not have atleast one of them remain healthy and have a relatively productive year ?
I dunno, but does Slaton not compare favorably to first-rounders Chris Johnson & Felix Jones except that he's not as fast as the super-fast Johnson (Jones isn't either) ?

[Warren]

Like Bob said, Slaton hasn't had to do a lot of running in traffic. A lot of the time at West Virginia he was either pitched the ball on the edge or he ran through gaps in the defense created by the vertical spread of the offensive personnel. IMO, the key trait that an NFL feature back must have is the ability to get yards after contact, because pro RBs don't get big holes where they can go untouched very often. And a RB can get yards after contact in any number of ways -- breaking tackles with power, bouncing off defenders, juking defenders so they don't get a clean shot, etc. Slaton needs to prove he can do that. Just like with zoning-blocking OLs, the Texans' offensive braintrust should know what to look for in RBs, so we'll see.

[Keith]

Feature backs are typically 25-30 carry/game type players. To call someone a feature back and then say you hope he gets 15 touches is contradictory. Feature backs are guys you give the rock to over and over again whether you are ahead or behind to wear down the defense (think LJ, Tomlinson, Peterson).
There was not a single running back averaging 25-30 carries/game last year. Times they are a changin'.

Tomlinson, for example, has been a touches bell cow since he joined the league. He was 4th in the league last year with 315 carries, 10 behind league leader Clinton Portis. That's 19.7 carries/gm. Include LT's 60 catches (which is pretty high for a RB), and his average touches/gm jumps to 23.4 per game. For his career, LT still only averages 21.3 carries per game, one of the few backs recently to be able to carry such a heavy load over a long period of time (7 years).

2007 Touches per Game Leaders
1. LaDainian Tomlinson 375
2. Clinton Portis 372
2. Brian Westbrook 372
4. Edgerrin James 348
5. Willie Parker 344

20 touches per game will probably put a player just into the top 10 in the league this year. I think this is a downward trend and is partially why you are seeing so many teams going with 2 RBs nowadays.

For reference, Portis, during his time with the Broncos, averaged 21.9 touches/game over the 2002-03 seasons. Back in those days, guys like LT and Ricky Williams were getting around 27 touches/game. If a featured back then on the Texans gets about 80% of the touches a league leader might get, then I would figure that the team's optimal scenario would be to find a RB that would get around 19 touches/game.

[papabear]

I don't think Slaton will be a starter right out of the gates because he will need to learn to be a better pass blocker. I wouldn't be surprised if he was very limited early for just this reason; why send out a back for consistent third down duty if he can't be counted on to pick up a blitzer if needed?

That said, the depth chart ahead of him doesn't look like anything special at the moment.

That's what I really don't know about Slaton is how well he will pick this part of the game up. This is the number one thing most rookies RB's struggle with, but it is a very important part of todays game.

I think most teams have come to realize that it is better to have a couple of guys splitting carries than it is to have one do all the work. They are both fresher at the end of the season and it is not a catastrophe if one of them goes down. In that sens I think he can be a very important part of the running game in the future. I think our situation allows us to work him slowly over time (read: until Green or Brown gets hurt) which is probably better for him anyway.

I wasn't upset when this pick was called, but it definitely didn't get me excited. It is starting to grow on me, and I love the outside the box BMI analysis. That was one of things with Bush that bothered me....he just didn't look like a RB because I thought his legs were too skinny. Of course my first memories of football were Earl Campbell, so my definition of what a running back should look like is probably a little skewed.

[dadmg]

Feature backs are typically 25-30 carry/game type players. To call someone a feature back and then say you hope he gets 15 touches is contradictory.

Keith said almost everything I intended to say, except that, by that definition, there have only been a few feature backs over a full season in the NFL's history. Larry Johnson last year averaged an even 26 carries per game in setting the NFL record for carries as Herm Edwards finished off another back. Jamal Anderson's 410 in 1998 was an average of 25.6. He blew out his knee for the first time the next year and never recovered. Finally, Eddie George scored 403 (25.18) carries for Jeff Fisher in 2000. He never managed more than 3.4 ypc again in his career.

In the late 90s, early 2000s, there were a few others that came close. Terrell Davis in his greatest year, 1998, got 392 carries (24.5) but never played anywhere close to full-time again (his high carry seasons of 97 and 98 were compounded by SB runs that pushed his knees far beyond what they were capable of). Edgerrin James ran 387 times in 2000 (24.18) a year after leading the league with 369; the next season he tore his ACL in game 6. Ricky Williams was a toy Norv Turner couldn't resist driving him for 383 carries in 2002 (23.9) and 392 carries in 2003 (24.5) even though his YPC dropped from 4.8 to 3.5 in that span. Norv has a long history of riding his backs into the ground; the fact that he only rushed Tomlinson 315 times (19.6) this season is as good an evidence as any that this super-workhorse trend might be dying off. Also in 2003, Jamal Lewis carried 387 (24.18) times on his way to his 2000 yard season; most of the media blamed his downturn on his offseason prison time but I think that its hard to ignore that 387 carries is a lot for any back, particularly one working on two rebuilt ACLs.

Before that late 90's, early 00's stretch, only a few other players have even come close to 25 carries per game, notably Jim Brown on the old 12 game schedule and Walter Payton and OJ Simpson on the 14 game schedule in the run-heavy 70's. But even they didn't average 25 carries a game once in their career.

[HPF Bob]

Perhaps I exaggerate but you also have to factor in that a 25-30 carry guy isn't doing that *every game*. If his team falls behind, most coaches abandon the run and start throwing to catch up. And if his team is well ahead, most coaches will sit the starter and not abuse him. Most teams will have at least 3-4 games during a season that will skew the touches/game average.

But when he is needed, a feature back is good for 25-30 carries and I'm not sure Slaton's body can stand up to that on a regular basis nor do I think that's the best way to utilize him.

[Roy P]

I think the ideal scenario is for Chris Taylor to assume the "feature back" position. This is a guy who is 5' 11" 220lbs (BMI around 30) but has had some issues with injury and fumbling. Obviously, we aren't ready to hand him the reigns. I believe that Green and Brown are our stop-gap solution until Taylor proves himself. Keeping all four RBs on the roster may or may not be feasible (Green could be costly to cut, though). Maybe we go into opening day with all four and see which one gets injured first. I hate projecting a starter by attrition, but it could be the way this plays out.

Anyway, no matter who starts out of Taylor, Brown, and Green; Slaton gives us an added dimension. That's why I can see the reasoning behind not drafting Tashard Choice or Jalen Parmele. You keep this little guy fresh and healthy allowing him to be dynamic when he touches the ball.

A couple of years ago, I was dead set against drafting Reggie Bush to fill this role. A 1st round RB has to be able to consistently carry the ball 15 - 20 times in EVERY game. Considering that we selected Slaton in the 3rd round, he can contribute sparingly and not be considered as a bust.

Two years from now, the Texans may have the NFL equivalent to the Clemson Tigers (James Davis and C.J. Spiller) with Taylor and Slaton. Of course, if Green gets cut and Brown gets hurt this season, we may have to speed up their development.

[HPF Bob]

A couple of years ago, I was dead set against drafting Reggie Bush to fill this role. A 1st round RB has to be able to consistently carry the ball 15 - 20 times in EVERY game. Considering that we selected Slaton in the 3rd round, he can contribute sparingly and not be considered as a bust.

That was my point about Bush/Slaton earlier in the thread. Bush is just never going to be a workhorse and he really should be a third down/specialty back whose job is to make plays in space. The thing is, no matter how good a RB is at doing that, it really can't justify first round money - especially top of the first round money. Slaton will probably never have Bush's talent but he can give you 85% of what Bush would give you for third round money. You don't ask a runner like that to hit the pile over and over again. You ask him to catch swing passes, run draws and screens and occasionally line up in the slot and run deep patterns.

Another thing is that defenses couldn't give their full focus to Slaton at West Virginia becuase they had to worry about White. I doubt Slaton would be as successful if defenses didn't have to account for a running quarterback.

[popanot]

I don't care who gets the majority of the carries just as long as we have someone back there that can hit a homerun from time to time. I'm just sick of these plodding, low-talent RBs we've had over the years. The best case scenario, at least IMO, would be for Chris Taylor to be the workhorse while Slaton provides the flash-and-dash and is used like the Saints use Bush. I'd love to see Taylor at RB with Slaton in the slot and AJ and JJ out wide. That would be some serious speed on the field. Mix in a dash of Owens and that's a pretty potent cocktail, IMO.