Official Wild Card Playoff Round - Texans vs. Bills Game Thread, 1/4/2020

[Arky]

The 10-6 Houston Texans will host the 10-6 Buffalo Bills this Saturday in a late afternoon game at NRG stadium in round 1 (wildcard round) of the playoffs. Both teams are coming off a week of taking it easy as the Texans fell to the Tennessee Titans at home 35-14 and the Bills fell to the NY Jets 13-6 at home.

There are 20 other teams sitting at home so if the Texans can win, they can advance to the final 8 (divisional round). A win there and they would advance to the final 4 (conference championship round) - a place they've never been before in their somewhat short history. But first things first...

The Bills defense is rated #3 (yds/game) behind the Patriots and 49'ers. The Texans defense is rated #28 which is bottom 5. The Texans, however, have the better offense statistically. The Bills were knocked out in the wild card round in 2017 but before that, you have to go back to 1999 for their last playoff appearance. The Texans have made the playoffs 4 of the last 5 years so, give the edge to the Texans for playoff experience.

It would be nice for the Texans to have relatively clean game that is not marred by an excess of turnovers, coaching blunders or defensive lapses. Well, that's probably not going to happen but I still see it:

Texans 17, Bills 13

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TV = ABC/ESPN (channel 13 local), 3:35 pm CST, Saturday, 1/4/2020

Announcers = (probably) Joe Tessitore, Booger McFarland (talk to me, Booger!)

The line (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) = (mostly) Texans by 2½

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Other playoff games:

CBS (Saturday night) = Tennessee @ New England, 7:15 PM CST

FOX (Sunday early) = Minnesota @ New Orleans, 12:05 PM CST

NBC (Sunday late) = Seattle @ Philadelphia, 3:40 PM

[Arky]

Team records ATS (against the spread):

Texans = 7-8-1

Bills = 9-6-1

-----------------------------------------

Walterfootball (http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2019_18early.php) likes the bet-against 1st time QB in the playoffs angle. He provides:

To sum it up:

Home favorites: 5-16 ATS, 8-13 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 14-32-1 ATS, 15-32 SU

Fading first-time playoff quarterbacks allowed you to go 3-1 against the spread last year, with the only loss coming in the Chiefs-Colts divisional-round game. Call me crazy, but Allen is no Patrick Mahomes.

He likes the Texans to win and cover.

[HPF Bob]

Texans are 3-3 in common opponents while Buffalo is 2-3. A big chunk of that stat is that Buffalo was 0-2 against New England, whom we beat, while Houston split with Tennessee, whom they beat. However, the loss to Tennessee comes with an asterisk as Houston certainly wasn't playing their best players.

Buffalo, like the Pats, benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule - 4 games against the Jets and Dolphins plus games against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Washington and the Giants. That should be 9-0 right there. The Bills went 7-2.

Their "good wins" were against Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas, two of which also missed the playoffs - so they are 1-4 against playoff teams.

Houston did better against an arguably tougher schedule. The "easy" part were 4 games against the Jags and Colts, followed by Atlanta, Carolina, LA Chargers, Oakland and Denver. The Texans went 6-3. Their "good wins" were against Tennessee, Kansas City, New England and Tampa Bay - of which Tampa Bay missed the playoffs. The Texans are 3-3 against playoff teams, again with the asterisk for the Week 17 game.

I think by schedule analysis, Houston is the better team. Whether it shows on Saturday is another matter.

[HPF Bob]

From Tuesday's practices, according to Rotowire:

* J.J. Watt (pectoral) is cleared for play but not expected to play every defensive snap. It would not surprise me if he is brought in just for obvious passing downs.

* Jahleel Addae (achilles) held back in practice but expects to be ready.

* Jonathan Joseph (hamstring) was limited in practice. He's a veteran so light practices shouldn't be a sign he won't be ready.

* Bradley Roby (hamstring) was limited in practice. Like Joseph, he won't need much to get ready.

* Laremy Tunsil (ankle) was limited in practice. Roderick Johnson took snaps as his backup.

* Will Fuller V (groin) was limited in practice. Likely to be listed as questionable and a game time decision.

* Kenny Stills (knee) was limited in practice. Likely listed as questionable and a game time decision.

* Jordan Thomas (illness) missed Wednesday's practice. No details.

Bills appear relatively healthy with the biggest concern being their right tackle who was injured in the loss to the Jets.

[HPF Bob]

Fatboy tweets Fuller V is a scratch. :(

[chuck]

All of you necks seriously thought the Nexans were going to win? lmao

[Arky]

Gametime!

Texans sporting the all-blues...

Texans kickoff to the Bills. Touchback. Bills to start at their 25.

Bills waste no time. Allen has a 42-yard run and then they use a halfback pass back to the QB for 16-yard TD.

Bills 7, Texans 0

11:41 left in the 1st qtr.

Way to go defense! :eek::rolleyes:

[Arky]

Texans get in to Bills territory but a missed PI on Hop is being challenged....

Likely not going to get overturned... Ball at the Bill's 37.

Play stands. Texans to punt.

Punt is fair caught at the 10-yard line. Bill's ball.

7:02 left in the 1st qtr.

[Arky]

1st qtr ends with the Bills with the ball at their 16 facing 2nd and 3.

Texans had a couple of drives into Bill's territory that ended with punts.

Still:

Bills 7, Texans 0

[Keith]

Stupid challenge by O'Brien.

Roby and Watt each had possible pick sixes go through their hands.

Twice drove into Bills territory and punted.

[Arky]

Bills have to settle for a FG after driving from their 9 yard line.

Hauschka is good from 40.

Bills 10, Texans 0

10:47 left in the half.

[Big Texas]

Pathetic so far...

But its to be expected...

I could care less about JJo not playing but Will Fuller is starting to show is not a very tough kid

[Arky]

Texans with another punt have the Bill's backed up to their own 4 with 5:45 left in the half.

[Arky]

Bills drive all the way down from the their own 4 yard line, using clock but have to settle for another Hauschka 40-yard FG.

Bills 13, Texans 0

-------------------------------------

Texans take the squib kickoff and time runs out.

Halftime.

[Arky]

Halftime stats:

1st downs: Texans 4, Bills 13

Total yards: Texans 81, Bills 247

TOP: Texans 13:11, Bills 16:49

Passing yards: Texans 39, Bills 147

Rushing yards: Texans 42, Bills 100

3rd down efficiency: Texans 3/6, Bills 5/8

No turnovers by either team. Penalties, kinda even...

[chuck]

Anyone who has watched BOB coach in the playoffs should have been able to foresee this halftime result.

Also, anyone who has watched the Bills play this season

[Big Texas]

Yep...this one is ALL on the coaching staff. I have no idea what the plan is on offense...

[Arky]

Texans take the 2nd half kickoff and don't do much. Punt it away.

Bills have the ball at their 36.

13:36 left in the 3rd qtr.

Watson has no time, has had some bad throws and receivers aren't getting open..... credit goes to the Bill's defense.

[chuck]

Bryan Anger touches: 4

DeAndre Hopkins touches: 0

Bills sacks: 5

Texans sacks: 0

Josh Allen rushing yards: 71

Texans total yards: 92

The difference in the quality of the game plans could not be more stark.

[Arky]

Hop fumbles after catching his first pass and the Bills recover. Bills with the ball at the Texan 38.

9:53 left in the 3rd qtr.

[Arky]

Bills convert the turnover into a Hauschka 38-yard FG.

Bills 16, Texans 0

6:02 left in the 3rd qtr...

[Arky]

Watson keeps for 20 and dives for the goal line. Ruled a TD, play is under review..... Awesome effort, regardless....

Play stands as called.

Texans go for 2 and Watson keeps again and reaches for the 2 pts, good!

Bills 16, Texans 8

1:33 left in the 3rd qtr.

[Arky]

Oooh, Texans get a turnover. Merci with the strip, Martin with the recovery.

Texans with the ball at midfield with about 14 minutes left in the game.

[Arky]

Texans stall out and Fairbairn is good from 41.

Bills 16, Texans 11

10:55 left in the game.

[Arky]

Bills go 3-and-out and will punt it away.

Texans fair catch at their 26.

9:29 left in the game.

[Arky]

Thanks to a 41-yard deep ball to Hop, the Texans drive on down the field.

Watson passes to Mr. Hyde for the last 5 yards!

Texans going for 2.....

Watson hits Hop on the slant for the conversion!

Texans 19, Bills 16

4:37 left in the game.

[Arky]

Bills facing 3rd and 13 at the Texan 28 at the 2 minute mark.

Can the Texans stop them - force them into a FG attempt?

[Arky]

Flags on the Bills back them up and force them into going for it on 4th and 27 at the Texan 42.

Martin with the sack!

Texans takeover on downs at the Bill's 39!

1:35 left in the game.

Bills with all 3 timeouts.

[Arky]

Bills burn all 3 timeouts as the Texans try to run for a clinching 1st down.

Texans facing 4th and 1 and going for it.

Watson sneaks on 4th and 1 and falls short.

Bill's ball with 1:16 left in the game.

[Arky]

Bills get a 1st down at the Texan 39 with 44 seconds left.

1st down pass goes inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Roby with the almost INT on 2nd down. 3rd and 10 coming up.

Pass to Beasley gets about 9 or 10... play is under review.....

Looks a little short on replay.....

Bills going for the FG....

Refs give the Bills a 1st down.

Bills spike the ball after the review. 20 seconds left in the game. Bills have 2nd and 10 coming up.

Texans use a timeout.

Allen tries a deep ball but it goes inc.

On 3rd and 10, pass into the end zone goes inc.

Hauschka is on for 47-yard FG attempt with 10 seconds left.

Texans use their last timeout.

FG attempt is good. Tie game. 5 seconds left and probably heading to OT.

Texans 19, Bills 19

[Arky]

Texans win the OT toss and will receive.

[Arky]

False start on Tunsil makes it 1st and 15.

Watson hits Hop for 10.

Hyde for about 2. Brings up 3rd and 3.

Oy, Watson starts to run and pulls up but Fell drops it, inc.

Texans have to punt.

Punt is fair caught at the Bill's 29. Bill's ball.

Need a stand defense....

[barrett]

Neither team wants to win. This is an embarrassment.

[Arky]

Allen loses 2 on 1st down.

Deep ball is knocked away, inc. 3rd and 12 coming up.

Oy, Hargreaves misses the tackle and the Bills convert 1st and 10 at their 42.

Pass to Brown for no gain.

Bills use a timeout.

Allen pressured, throws inc. 3rd and 9 coming up.

Jeez, pass to Singletary gets 14 and the 1st down.

Allen tries a sweep right but gets tackled by Cunningham for no gain.

Pass to Beasley off the mark, inc. 3rd and 9 coming up.

Allen keeps for 4 but flag on the play.... Blindside block backs it up 15 yards.

Pass goes inc. Bills will have to punt on 4th and 24.

9:14 left in OT.

[HPF Bob]

The Texans had this game won in regulation. 4th and 1, no Buffalo timeouts left at the Buffalo 31. Go for the 48-yd FG that practically ices the game?

NOOOOOOO! Coach O'Shithead decides to run a sneak against the #1 run defense in the NFL when everybody knows exactly what play is coming and it gets stuffed! If the Texans lose this, that's exactly the play that did it.

[HPF Bob]

Since this is the playoffs, there's technically no "time" left in OT. They keep playing until there's a winner, even if it takes until 3 a.m. They use quarters but they're meaningless.

[Arky]

Punt rolls dead at the Texan 17. Texan's ball.

Pass to Hop gets about 10....

Hyde for 1.

Oy, Watson gets sacked. Brings up 3rd and 18.

Dump to D Johnson get the 1st down! Play is under review.....

Looks like he got it....

6:07 left in OT. Ball at the Texans 37.

Watson keeps for 5.

Pass to Stills gets 10 and a 1st down at the Bill's 48.

Hyde for about 4.

On 2nd and 6, Watson almost sacked but wriggles loose and hits T Jones for big gainer! Ball all the way to the Bill's 10! 1st and goal! 3:23 left in OT.

Texans going for the FG. Fairbairn on for the 28-yarder.

FG is good! Texans advance!

Final score:

Texans 22, Bills 19

[chuck]

Go Titans.

I'm perfectly fine with their going for it on 4th down. That was the right call. Not the right play call, but the right call.

[Arky]

Since this is the playoffs, there's technically no "time" left in OT. They keep playing until there's a winner, even if it takes until 3 a.m. They use quarters but they're meaningless.

Yes, I know, just posting the times for reference......

Nice win, eh?

[Keith]

34-yard reception to a man in a #34 jersey in Houston.

[barrett]

Go Titans.

I'm perfectly fine with their going for it on 4th down. That was the right call. Not the right play call, but the right call.

I agree. Going for it was right. But I’m putting Watson on the move somehow.

[Keith]

I'm perfectly fine with their going for it on 4th down. That was the right call. Not the right play call, but the right call.

I disagree, but I can see how a 4th down conversion wins the game being better than a field goal only guaranteeing you a 6-point lead.

Just given what we had seen of Josh Allen, he did not inspire much confidence to lead the Bills offense on a TD drive to win.

[Arky]

34-yard reception to a man in a #34 jersey in Houston.

Eheh, I questioned the Texans for keeping him coming out of camp. They kept him for that one play....:p

[Arky]

The good news is, they won. The bad news is they won a trip to Baltimore.

-------------------------------------------------

Watson ends up 20/25, 247 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Hopkins ends up 6/90.

-------------------------------------------------

I'm guessing the spread is going to be about 12 or so vs. Ravens....

[HPF Bob]

I disagree, but I can see how a 4th down conversion wins the game being better than a field goal only guaranteeing you a 6-point lead.

Just given what we had seen of Josh Allen, he did not inspire much confidence to lead the Bills offense on a TD drive to win.

Plus, the Bills were psychologically crushed after they screwed the pooch the previous time down the field. Kicking a FG further dispirits them and puts the boot to their throats. Stopping Watson on 4th down re-invigorated them because now they only needed to advance the ball 50 yards for a game-tying FG.

This was a game we shouldn't have won then shouldn't have lost only to have it go to overtime where they won. Anyway, the L-W-W sequence continues and it will be severely put to the test next weekend on the road.

[barrett]

I was having a hard time rooting for the Titans even if it helped the Texans, but then I saw Vrabel shaved his mustache and it became 100% easier to root for him. He now looks like a human being instead of the grown up version of the bad guy in an 80s teen comedy.

[chuck]

I was having a hard time rooting for the Titans even if it helped the Texans, but then I saw Vrabel shaved his mustache and it became 100% easier to root for him. He now looks like a human being instead of the grown up version of the bad guy in an 80s teen comedy.

He had it shaven last week. I don’t remember who they were playing. Maybe I noticed it on SportsCenter.

[Arky]

Well, there's a fine turn of events. Texans heading to KC next weekend and the Titans going to Baltimore.....

Titans pull it off and defeat the Pats 20-13...

[HPF Bob]

Going to Kansas City!
Kansas City, here I come!
Going to Kansas City!
Kansas City, here I come!
They got some crazy lovin' women there
And I'm gonna get me one.

Well, I might take a train.
I might take a plane.
But if I'm gonna go,
I'm goin' just the same.

Going to Kansas City.
Kansas City, here I come!
They got some crazy lovin' women there
And I'm gonna get me one.

=====

Thanks, Titans!

BTW, the Houston-KC rematch will be next Sunday 3:05 pm ET on SeeBS.

[chuck]

So I was certain of two things and as it turned out I was correct about one of them. As I look back on my life, that seems about right.

[chuck]

As for the song, 'pretty little' I think is the lyric, rather than 'crazy lovin,' although, again, looking back at my life, there's not always a lot of space between the two.

[HPF Bob]

As for the song, 'pretty little' I think is the lyric, rather than 'crazy lovin,' although, again, looking back at my life, there's not always a lot of space between the two.

The lyric websites say "crazy little" or "crazy lil" but you can listen to the original Wilbert Harrison song from 1959 here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8tZO97uhyE

[chuck]

The lyric websites say "crazy little" or "crazy lil" but you can listen to the original Wilbert Harrison song from 1959 here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8tZO97uhyE

I don't know who the fk Wilbert Harrison is. I do know who Fats Domino is, you know, the dude who made the song famous, and you can listen to HIS song here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mypHZmXdU3o

This is as good an example as any of the generational divide between Buford and me. He's Team Wilbert, I'm Team Fats.

[Arky]

Swear I almost posted the Fats Domino version of Going to Kansas City but couldn't find a "live" version. Just some Youtube "collage" versions.....

Man, early line (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) shows the Chiefs opened as 7½ pt favorites and it's already jumped to 8 to 9 in some places....

Chiefs are on a roll but that might be a little high....

[nunusguy]

Swear I almost posted the Fats Domino version of Going to Kansas City but couldn't find a "live" version. Just some Youtube "collage" versions.....

Man, early line (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) shows the Chiefs opened as 7½ pt favorites and it's already jumped to 8 to 9 in some places....

Chiefs are on a roll but that might be a little high....

Fats may have had a version but Wibur Harrison is the one who made it famous, made it the classic R&B standard that it is.
The song is actually the product of a couple of East coast Jews.
I'm from the KC area, therefor I know something about that #.

[Arky]

Fats may have had a version but Wibur Harrison is the one who made it famous, made it the classic R&B standard that it is.
The song is actually the product of a couple of East coast Jews.
I'm from the KC area, therefor I know something about that #.

Oh yeah. Leiber and Stoller, famous songwriting duo who also furnished Elvis with "Hound Dog".

The Beatles also had a peppy version of "Kansas City"...

[HPF Bob]

Who knows how some things get stuck in my cranium? According to Wikipedia, the original "Kansas City" that was also released as "KC Loving" had this line:

"They got a crazy way of lovin' there, and I'm gonna get me some"

but Harrison, whose version was the #1 Billboard hit in 1959 for seven weeks, changed it to "They got some crazy little women there and I'm gonna get me one".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_(Leiber_and_Stoller_song)

Virtually every R&B act with a recording contract released versions of the song during or after the song's mega-hit run while Harrison's version was facing legal challenges.

Another historical side note was that, during the late '50s, white "cover versions" of R&B songs often outsold the original black R&B version. The white versions often cleaned up lyrics considered too sexualized for the larger radio audience. Harrison, a black artist from North Carolina, appeared to have cleaned up the lyrics as a pre-emptive strike against cover versions and it appeared to work because it was his version that became the million-seller, not somebody like Pat Boone.

Anyway, I don't want the thread to have more posts about a 60-year-old song than about a playoff victory.

[chuck]

Anyway, I don't want the thread to have more posts about a 60-year-old song than about a playoff victory.

Well, I do.

I used to play in an R&B band led by this lunatic called Doctor Hot Pepper. I met him randomly after having stood outside a bar he and his band was playing in Arlington, Virginia, totally agog at what I was seeing through the window. I went in and watched the last of his set, introduced myself, and he said, sagely, We should get a pizzur an' eat it in the woods and talk about music!

Right on, I said.

Quite some while after that I went to see him again, in that very same spot, and when he spotted me he demanded that I play with him that night. You bess go home an' gecho GUItar, he said.

With Doc, you more or less did what he told you to do, so I dutifully returned to the club with my gear and thus began a fairly long an very fruitful musical relationship, at least for me, and a very significant friendship, surely for both of us. I really learned to love that nutcase, and he and I were close friends for quite some time. He passed many years ago, and I miss him today as much as ever.

He was from Kansas City.

One night he invited me to take him to a Christmas party at a sort of art gallery where he was well known. We get there and begin to mingle. There's a band of four or five fellows on the stage, playing relatively inoffensive, jazzy versions of Christmas standards, just totally minding their own business. There are plenty of people, festive in the holiday spirit. Speaking of spirits, it turns out that this is a dry party, which is a source of some considerable consternation for Doc. I'll never know whether he knew in which desk drawer in the office area to look or whether he looked until he found it, but he turned up a bottle of peach schnapps I think it was. After a few restorative belts, and then after a few more, he was ready to face the public.

Next thing I know he's marched up onto the stage and waved the poor band into silence.

I should say that Doc habitually wore a red silk cape, a boatman's cap, something akin to a prizefighter's belt buckle, rhinestone rings on every finger... He was a noticeable presence.

He huddles with the band while the members of the crowd murmur nervously among themselves. He emerges from the conference with a look of satisfaction and suddenly the band launches into a sort of shuffle - ba dadadaDADA, ba dadadaDADA! Goin'ta Kansas City! Kansas City here I come!

Well. He brought the house down. I mean, I played a hundred gigs with this nutcase. Sometimes he was far too drunk to be out on his own. Sometimes he was too morose to be much good. Sometimes he was right in the zone where he needed to be, and, if by some miracle that night he had a good band behind him, well, who knows how good things could get. He had guys on call who had played with Wilson Pickett, Sam and Dave, James Brown, you know, guys who knew what they were doing. And me. And if the good guys showed up and Doc was in the right frame of mind, we could turn a place upside down. That, sadly, was not uniformly the case.

I had never really seen him do this to a big crowd, but truly, he brought the house down. Then he scampered off the stage and out a side door that I already knew he'd be headed to, and we hurried off into my Honda Civic.

He sat there for a while decompressing. I sat there thinking, You know, Doc is delusional AF but there is definitely a there there, you know? Eventually he gave the order to depart, and we did.

The other notable thing that happened that night, and I obviously have a million stories like this but I'll spare you, telling you this one only because it happened that same night - we pulled into a light next to the Department of the Treasury. A stretch limo slid up next to us to our right. Doc was still in his world and hadn't noticed. I didn't know what would happen, but I knew I had to find out. I nudged him and sort of indicated with a nod of the head the limousine next to us. He shouted, Thass my lifestyle! and rolled down the window.

He thrust half of himself out the window and started waving wildly. The driver rolls down his window, bemused, and sort of raises his eyebrows in expectation.

I usually travel in wunna them! Doc shouts. The driver looks on dispassionately.

You know why I'm not in wunna them tonite?! Again, Doc is halfway out the window, waving his arms around frantically. At this point the windows of the passengers start to lower so they can find out just what in the hell is going on.

The driver raises his eyebrows a bit in anticipation. Doc answers, Cause I don' wanna be RECONIZED!

The driver looks at Doc for a beat and finally says, Good call!

The light changes and everyone drives off to their individual destinies.

If the Texans win next week maybe I'll buy a pint of peach schnapps in his honor, if I can find one. Maybe I'll drink it in the woods and think about music.

[HPF Bob]

Since 2013, the home team has gone 19-5 in the division round, roughly 1 upset per year. This was used by the dude at CBS Sports to justify picking the Titans over the Ravens. I marvel sometimes how these clowns draw a paycheck.

[Keith]

Well, I do.

Long-form chuck is why message boards still exist.