Wild Card Weekend Discussion [Split Thread]

[HPF Bob]

Eagles are so impressive the way they keep fighting through injuries. Wentz is the first NFL QB to throw for over 4000 and yet no receiver puts up even 500 yards - that's because they've been so beat up in the receiver corps.

As for playoff scheduling, the NFL is now checking the weather reports for New England to see when to schedule the Titans-Patriots game into the worst weather possible.

[chuck]

I'll go out on a limb and predict the Texans and Bills play Saturday early.

Also, the Bills are going to ass rape the Texans.

[HPF Bob]

I'll go out on a limb and predict the Texans and Bills play Saturday early.

Also, the Bills are going to ass rape the Texans.

The Patriots could be the primetime attraction which means the Texans would be the early Sunday game.

As for Texans-Bills, no offense meant to Buffalo but the Texans would probably lose to a hot passing team but they can hold their own with a team that doesn't throw well and Allen is not a top thrower, at least yet. It will be his first playoff game and it will be on the road. If Watson has all his weapons, I can see a 23-20 Houston victory. Plus, we get J.J. back as a motivator on defense.

[HPF Bob]

p.s. - I pleaded with the Texans to draft Hunter Renfrow, didn't I?

[chuck]

Dude, if the Texans had drafted every white guy you wanted them to draft they'd look like the Kinkaid Falcons.

[Arky]

Oddly, no spread, no playoff schedule, yet.... Maybe they are waiting for this SNF game to conclude....

[chuck]

Oddly, no spread, no playoff schedule, yet.... Maybe they are waiting for this SNF game to conclude....

That was a really good game. I've about talked myself into believing that the Niners can win the NFC. Each of the truly good teams is seriously flawed in some way, so it will be great to see how it all shakes down.

[HPF Bob]

Sonovagun.

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday, Jan. 4:
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 4 Houston Texans, 4:35 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
No. 6 Tennessee Titans at No. 3 New England, 8:15 p.m. (CBS)

Sunday, Jan. 5:
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 New Orleans Saints, 1:05 p.m. (FOX)
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles, 4:40 p.m. (NBC)

I was right that the NFL would put the Patriots in prime time (and on CBS which helps confirm my theory that the NFL has an arrangement to make sure there is a Patriots home playoff game every year so the CBS sports bar at Gillette Stadium has an extra pay date) but I was wrong to presume that would put the other AFC game involving the Texans on Sunday.

Breaking with tradition, the NFL is having both AFC games on Saturday and both NFC games on Sunday.

Vikings and Saints....I think I've seen that playoff matchup before.

[Arky]

Spreads (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) are out:

Texans -3 over Bills

Pats -5½ over Titans

Saints -8 over Vikes

Seahawks pickem to -1 over Eagles

All home teams are favored except for the Seahawks who are visiting Philly...

[nunusguy]

I think Vrabel goes into NE and takes out the old codgers. Anymore it's fairly routine for the Pats to lose including at home which they've done in two of their last three games in Foxburo.
Have no idea who shows for the Texans this weekend ?

[Keith]

Mod note: Splitting this wild card discussion from the Titans game thread.

Texans -3 over Bills

Pats -5½ over Titans

Saints -8 over Vikes

Seahawks pickem to -1 over Eagles

All home teams are favored except for the Seahawks who are visiting Philly...
Yikes, a home dog in the playoffs. I'm usually way better picking heads up instead of against the spread, but I'd avoid picking the Seahawks especially if that spread grows over the week. So give me the Eagles (+1).

My other amateur spread picks...
Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans. Plus their WR Brown gives me happy thoughts of what a young Andre Johnson was like. And seeing the Patriots lose at home on *shudder* wild card weekend is a bit of wish fulfillment.

Vikings (+8) but Saints to win... New Orleans is one of the tougher #3 seeds in recent memory. Hard to pick a game giving up more than a TD though as I think the Vikings will play hard throughout, but I could also see this being a blowout win for the Saints.

pick wisely...your mileage may vary.

[Arky]

Mod note: Splitting this wild card discussion from the Titans game thread.


Yikes, a home dog in the playoffs. I'm usually way better picking heads up instead of against the spread, but I'd avoid picking the Seahawks especially if that spread grows over the week. So give me the Eagles (+1).

My other amateur spread picks...
Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans. Plus their WR Brown gives me happy thoughts of what a young Andre Johnson was like. And seeing the Patriots lose at home on *shudder* wild card weekend is a bit of wish fulfillment.

Vikings (+8) but Saints to win... New Orleans is one of the tougher #3 seeds in recent memory. Hard to pick a game giving up more than a TD though as I think the Vikings will play hard throughout, but I could also see this being a blowout win for the Saints.

pick wisely...your mileage may vary.

Very good. If you haven't guessed by now, I kinda like these discussions. I'm interested in the whole science behind trying to beat the spread...

Having said that, I had a terrible year this year. Even picking straight up.
I started out OK, but it went south during the season. I zigged when I should've zagged. In the money contest I'm in, I went 0-5 to finish the contest culminating in a best bet on the Seahawks that came up about a ½ foot short of covering on SNF. That's the way it goes sometimes....

I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).

Good Texans will cover, bad Texans won't. I know, not much insight with that statement.... I keep waiting for the Texan defense to find itself - a bit like the Chiefs defense of late. It's lose-and-you-go-home time, so time to get it going.... If you can't beat the Bills.......

Yes, AJ Brown is beasty. Pats are showing some cracks. Very well could be a Titans upset... Tough to go against the Pats at home, though..

I'm leaning Russell Wilson to get it done up in Philly but need to look into it a bit more...

Sometimes the simplest logic is the correct one. I think I over-analyzed quite a bit this year and it led me astray... At any rate, just some thoughts from a guy on a losing streak, eheh....

[HPF Bob]

AJ Brown is All-Airport, alright. He lasted longer in the draft because of character concerns but, on raw talent, he may be better than his Ole Miss teammate Metcalf. Brown can be another Terrell Owens if he can stay focused.

I see the Texans-Bills game as being similar to the Oakland wild card game we had here when Osweiler was QB. Buffalo has a lot of good players but a suspect quarterback. Romeo needs to focus on the ground game, use McKinney as a spy, mix up the blitz packages and let their QB know the playoffs are a different animal. Conversely, Watson needs to utilize the TE, give Fuller V a few deep looks and then find Stills coming from the slot. If the Bills switch off D-Hop then start looking for him. OL needs to block well or it may be one of those 13-10 contests.

Having J.J. back at home should fire up the crowd to another level.

[Keith]

I'm thinking the Saints at home are going to run away with it. I see some leftover revenge factor from the Keenum robbery (last year? Two years ago?).
Yeah, if I flip on any of my picks, this would be the one. Chances of a Saints blowout victory are rather large. The Vikings are running out of steam.

Ok, I'll flip and take the Saints (-8) at home.

The Pats will probably do well to take Brown out of the game, kinda how they do when playing the Texans to take away their best option to make you beat them with someone lesser. Winning at Foxboro is tough, but these are not your older brother's Patriots anymore. Gronk is not walking out of that tunnel. Feels weird to say, but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

[Arky]

.......... but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

Yep, me too. My disdain for the Pats supercedes the same for the Titans. I'll probably end up picking the Pats to win - they aren't dead until someone knocks them out. It's a bounce-back situation for the Pats after losing to the Dolphins - a wake up call. Titans have a good chance to cover the 5 pts, though.... Pats by a 4th qtr FG?

[HPF Bob]

Pats by a 4th qtr clearly blown call? :rolleyes:

[HPF Bob]

As for playoff scheduling, the NFL is now checking the weather reports for New England to see when to schedule the Titans-Patriots game into the worst weather possible.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/winter-storm-henry-in-the-forecast-for-patriots-titans-wild-card-matchup-in-foxborough/

Winter Storm Henry in the forecast for Titans-Patriots wild-card matchup in Foxborough

I hope it's Winter Storm Derrick Henry and he proves an unstoppable force of nature...

[Keith]

Houston (-3)… we all know this game will be closer than it should be, and nationally I can see a lot of people taking the points and the Bills here. BUT, a healthy-ish Fuller and a return of Watt at home, and I do think the Texans avoid chuck's predicted ass rape for one more week at least.

Well, a push at -3, though this line moved to -2.5 or so after this tweet. Predictably slow start for the Texans offense is why we all felt this game would be closer than it should. Texans should be getting a healthy amount of points at either KC or Baltimore next weekend.

[Keith]

Titans (+5.5) and heads up… kinda like the Colts were for the Texans last season, the Pats match up terribly here with the Titans.

The Pats will probably do well to take Brown out of the game, kinda how they do when playing the Texans to take away their best option to make you beat them with someone lesser. Winning at Foxboro is tough, but these are not your older brother's Patriots anymore. Gronk is not walking out of that tunnel. Feels weird to say, but I'll be pulling for *gulp* Vrabel and the Titans.

Choo choo!

And no, do not expect me to update this again if I am ever wrong.

[Arky]

Point spreads (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) of KC over Houston and Baltimore over Tennessee are roughly the same at about 10 points each. The money lines are roughly +350 for both underdogs.

I think the Titans vs. Ravens matchup should be pretty good and I will be watching with great interest. The Titans may not win but I think they can give the Ravens a good game...

The Texans.....they just can't dilly-dally for a half if they expect to win. The Chiefs will have the Texan secondary running wind sprints all game.....

Chances of both the Texans and the Titans winning and making it to the AFC Championship game? Plug +350 twice into a parlay calculator (http://www.donbest.com/calculator/parlay-calculator/) and you get 19.25. So, it's a 19.25 to 1 shot that both teams win. A $10 two-team parlay bet wins $192.50. If you're a hold'em player, that's about a 2-outer. Not very likely but not impossible....

[nunusguy]

Wonder if there's any chance Fuller can make it back for the KC game ?

[HPF Bob]

Unless the Eagles pull another rabbit from their hats, the Texans will be the only home team to survive the Wild Card round. :confused:

[barrett]

Wonder if there's any chance Fuller can make it back for the KC game ?

I'd suspect his chances of playing are the same as our chances of making it a game.

[HPF Bob]

Where else can we find somebody who can drop the deep ball like Fuller?

[Arky]

So, Minnesota gets it done in New Orleans. Color me suitably shocked. Kirk Cousins seems to be shedding some of his poor trends....

Seattle holds up in Philly. The Seahawks go to Green Bay next Sunday and will be playing after the Texans/Chiefs game. The Packers are currently favored by 4 (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php).

The Vikings will head to Santa Clara to play the Niners in the late/afternoon Saturday game. Niners currently favored by 6½ to 7. Titans @ Ravens is Saturday night.

I would not be surprised to see all four home teams win next weekend. That has happened before although I don't have the stats handy. Picking ATS is where it gets interesting - lots of points floating around out there....

[nunusguy]

I've got a question for you high rollers out there ?
I'm headed to Vegas this coming weekend so which of the casinos are known
to be the most customer friendly or are the spreads virtually the same among the various casinos ?

[barrett]

Where else can we find somebody who can drop the deep ball like Fuller?

You are 100% correct here.

Will Fuller can't catch. And I don't mean he can't catch by NFL standards. I mean he can't catch like a guy in a flag football game can't catch standards.

And we need to find a guy who can take the top off like that regardless of if he can catch. With him on the field everybody else feasts because defenses fear a guy who catches 1 out of 3 deep balls more than the guy who catches 2 out of 3 8 yard curls. So the second Fuller steps on the field we get better.

Fuller has played just over half the snaps (53%) so there is no small sample size either way. Watson without Fuller 89 passer rating. With Fuller 104. In Yards per play we currently rank 12th in the league at 5.7. With Fuller we jump up to top 5 and without him we drop to bottom third of the league.

He is more vital to the big play offense we rely on than any of Hopkins/Stills/Johnson/Hyde. That doesn't make him better. It just means that we he does cannot be replicated by anyone else on the roster.

[Keith]

And no, do not expect me to update this again if I am ever wrong.

*crickets*

[HPF Bob]

The winning records for the home teams in the divisional round are very high because they are the #1 and #2 seeds coming off a bye week. So, on paper, these are all clearly the best two teams in their conference hosting lesser teams with the advantage of a week of rest. That's why it was such a big deal for the Patriots to finally not have this advantage every year.

[Arky]

I've got a question for you high rollers out there ?
I'm headed to Vegas this coming weekend so which of the casinos are known
to be the most customer friendly or are the spreads virtually the same among the various casinos ?

I'm not exactly a high roller but here's an OK guide:

The 10 Best Las Vegas Sportsbooks (https://www.tripsavvy.com/best-las-vegas-sport-books-1679242)

I think you'll probably find there's not that much difference in the juice/fees between the various establishments as long as you stick to the reputable joints... Saving a nickel or dime here or there is for those that do it all the time...

Edit: Check this guide (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/f3d5d2e2-9015-11e7-a977-0a9aa1523ac0/Where-To-Play-Grading-Las-Vegas-Best-Sportsbooks-Sports-Betting-Tips-Top-Sportsbooks-In-Las-Vegas-Gambling-Pointspreads-Football-Betting-Odds) out, too.

[Arky]

FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/) certainly looks a little different in the post-season. Guess who they have rated last among the 8 remaining teams? Eheh.

The Ravens are the heavy favorites to make it to the SuperBowl and win it....

Click the link and check out the probabilities....

[HPF Bob]

Does 538 still list Hillary Clinton as a 98% chance to win the 2016 presidency?

[barrett]

FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/) certainly looks a little different in the post-season. Guess who they have rated last among the 8 remaining teams? Eheh.

The Ravens are the heavy favorites to make it to the SuperBowl and win it....

Click the link and check out the probabilities....

Like all predictive models they value margin of victory over win/loss. This is smart in 162 games of baseball, but the sample size is tiny in football, and a single blowout in either way can tilt the whole model.

[Arky]

Sample size in football IS tiny compared to say baseball but after 16-17 games, IMO, a team has pretty much shown what it is made of. When a season starts, I don't even look at team stats till there is at least 4 or 5 games to work with.

We've all heard the expression "defense wins championships". That may have been truer a few years ago but not so much these days. Don't get me wrong, a good defense surely helps but just a competent defense can keep you in games if you have a good to great offense.

Of the remaining 8 teams in the playoffs, here's where the remaining teams rank in defense , yds/game:

2. San Francisco
4. Baltimore
14. Minnesota
17. Kansas City
18. Green Bay
21. Tennessee
26. Seattle
28. Houston

Note that #1 New England and #3 Buffalo are out along with 6 others from the top 10.

--------------------------------

Here's the same group ranked by points allowed/game, defense:

3. Baltimore
5. Minnesota
7. Kansas City
8. San Francisco
9. Green Bay
12. Tennessee
19. Houston
22. Seattle

A little different look, eh? Points allowed per game has more of the remaining competitors in the top 10 defensively.

Some teams you can move the ball on but they get stingy in the red zone.

The yds/game stat has been used as THE ranking stat for like ages but it doesn't tell the full story. Like all raw stats, it is just one piece of the puzzle.

Calculated rankings, power rankings and new age metrics are fun to look at but I think I still prefer looking at the raw data....

So far, everything is pointing to a San Francisco/Baltimore Superbowl but sometimes one of the lower ranked teams goes on a hot streak and blows up all the models. We'll see how that works out this year...

[Arky]

It's San Francisco vs. Kansas City and early line (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) has it as Pickem to Chiefs by 1½ in Super Bowl LIV.

[HPF Bob]

Watching SF run makes me think they'll be just as difficult to stop on the ground as Tennessee was but you have to keep milking the clock and putting up points to beat the prolific KC offense. If I were to bet (and I don't), I would pick the 49ers straight up because they have the better all-around team but the Chiefs have the ability to erase any deficit and put the pressure on Garappolo to keep sustaining drives and putting up points.

[Arky]

Those Mahomes scrambles were just killer for the Titans yesterday just like they were against the Texans. No one expects him to run so, when a play breaks down, there are good chunks to be had.

I'll be rooting for the Niners as I find it hard to pull for Kelce/Hill and company....

[barrett]

Mahomes passing and the design of the offense eat up zone coverage. Teams end up playing lots of man with deep safeties to take away the most dangerous options. But that turns into Mahomes casually running down the field while the defense’s heads are still turned. There’s no real way to stop them, so you have to score and keep them off the field while scoring. I think they sometimes press when they don’t see the ball for a long stretch.

[HPF Bob]

I thought it was bad awareness. There's what, 11 seconds or so left in the first half and Mahomes heads for the sidelines. They hope he'll run out of bounds and, instead of making sure he does, they allow him to scamper down the sidelines. Then a safety comes up with time clearly almost out for the half..no time for another play...and the safety goes for the strip instead of keeping Mahomes out of the end zone. Dumb, dumb dumb. Just put the QB on the turf and the half is over. Poor awareness. That play right there doomed Tennessee.