Playoffs?!? PLAYOFFS??!!?

[HPF Bob]

Should the Texans sweep the Jaguars (which, bless their hearts, they are still playing hard) and get a miracle by beating the Colts or Ravens, the Texans would finish 9-7 and have a chance to sneak into the postseason.

They don't have head-to-heads with many of their playoff competitors (beat Cleveland, lost to Pittsburgh, beat Buffalo) and they have a fine conference record since they sucked against the NFC East (1-3) so they could potentially be 8-4 in the AFC.

A LOT would have to break the right way for the Texans to get in but it is less impossible than you might think. I guess the part that scares me most is that Fitz can be just as terrible one week as he can look good like against the Titans.

[Arky]

I think they gotta win out the rest of the way.... that would put them right in the mix. If they can beat the Colts on the road, the Ravens at home and don't fall asleep in the two Jags games, they got a shot.

They are currently in 12th place (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false) @ 6-6 so they have to make up ground and pass a bunch of 7-5 teams. As good as Fitz was yesterday, I'm not sure he can win out or even go 3-1 the rest of the year....

Still, it would be nice to go into Indianapolis with a 7-6 record and something to play for....

[HPF Bob]

Here's ESPN's playoff projector (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine) where you can fiddle with combinations of possibilities. Yes, the Texans can make it as a 9-7 wild card if they beat J-ville twice and Baltimore at home. The trick would be only having one of the mass of 7-5 teams finish at 10-6.

Here's one such scenario. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/powerranking/results/400554384~1~400554432~1~400554342~1~400554392~1~40 0554418~1~400554427~1~400554356~1~400554361~1~4005 54398~1~400554402~1~400554444~1~400554447~1~400554 413~1~400554405~2~400554446~1~400554441~1)

[Keith]

Here's one such scenario. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/powerranking/results/400554384~1~400554432~1~400554342~1~400554392~1~40 0554418~1~400554427~1~400554356~1~400554361~1~4005 54398~1~400554402~1~400554444~1~400554447~1~400554 413~1~400554405~2~400554446~1~400554441~1)
Pretty cool. Kinda makes the losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati hurt a little more though since one or both of those as wins would have really boosted their playoff hopes.

On a related note, the team has begun invoicing season ticket holders for the playoffs. A common practice for teams still in the hunt as of 12/1.

[nunusguy]

If we win Sunday and Indy happens to lose to Cleveland (not likely, but it's in Cleveland), then we've got something to really pull for going into Indy the following week. Otherwise I give us no chance for a WC spot with so many tams ahead o us.

[Keith]

Well here's something...

Ravens DL Haloti Ngata has been suspended for four games - including the upcoming game with the Texans - for PED usage (Adderall). Ngata of course is a beast in the middle of that defense and would be a huge loss for the Ravens.

[HPF Bob]

More importantly, he's the key to their run defense. Since Foster/Blue is the heart of our offense, having that big boy out of the way is a major plus.

[Arky]

Texans move up to 8th place (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false) from 12th place. Jump ahead of Miami, KC, Cleveland and Buffalo. Only Pittsburgh and Baltimore, both @ 8-5 are ahead of them for the last playoff spot. Lose at Indy, though, and it all goes down the tubes.....

[Keith]

Lose at Indy, though, and it all goes down the tubes.....
Nah, there's still a few scenarios in which the Texans could sneak in at 9-7. Most involve the Chargers losing a couple games down the stretch, including a Week 17 game at KC.

[Arky]

Nah, there's still a few scenarios in which the Texans could sneak in at 9-7. Most involve the Chargers losing a couple games down the stretch, including a Week 17 game at KC.

True, but yeah, they'll need help with a 9-7. OTOH, if they can't beat the Colts or Ravens, then they shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway, dontcha think? :) They might not be at the point where they can give everyone a good fight.....

[HPF Bob]

If they can't beat the Colts or the Ravens, they'll be 8-8 and we won't have to worry about it unless they are transferred to the NFC South.

Realistically, they *have* to beat Baltimore to have any chance.

BTW, with SD's loss there are three teams at 8-5 (SD, Pitt and Balt). We will need two of them to lose twice in order to have a 9-7 team get into the playoffs. Also, we lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Pittsburgh but we could probably survive a three-way tie.

[Keith]

The Chargers' loss last night to the Pats helped the Texans quite a bit. Also helping is that the Chargers have a tough remaining schedule: vs. DEN, @ SF, @ KC. Seems plausible there might be two losses in there.

The Texans have the Ravens in two weeks, and I think winning that one is more critical than even beating the Colts. Ravens remaining schedule: vs. JAX, @ HOU, vs. CLE. Would be awesome if the Browns or Jags could win in Baltimore, but those could be tall orders.

The Steelers remaining schedule: @ ATL, vs. KC, vs. CIN. I could see Pittsburgh winning out with this lineup.

The Bengals remaining schedule: @ CLE, vs. DEN, @ PIT. If the Browns can beat them next Sunday (Johnny Football fever?), then the Bengals could free-fall out of the playoffs.

Need to keep KC in this picture. They are in if they win out. Remaining schedule: vs. OAK, @ PIT, vs. SD.

So maybe the Bengals get bounced here along with the Chargers. The Steelers win their division, and the Ravens get the other wild card along with the Texans.

That would set up a road trip for the Texans to Pittsburgh with a shot at redeeming themselves for the loss earlier this season. As the 6th seed, should they win, they'd play the team with home field next, likely the Patriots at this point... an interesting master/apprentice match between Belichick and O'Brien. I think the Texans stand a better chance of beating the Patriots than the Broncos on the road.

[Keith]

Also, even if the Texans beat the Colts & Ravens, AND then the Cowboys beat the Colts the week following, the Texans still cannot win the division if you think the Colts can win over the Titans in Week 17.

The Titans are quite possibly the worst team in the league. The Texans really needed the Browns to win yesterday to have any hope of winning the division.

Wild card or bust at this point.

[Nconroe]

I sure didn't think we'd be talking even remote chance at playoffs right now, so good job Texans to even have a distant shot at playoffs this year.

[Keith]

Texans are a wild card IF:
- They beat the Jaguars at home
- The Chiefs beat the Chargers at home
- The Browns beat the Ravens in Baltimore

...quite a trifecta.

[WMH]

Texans are a wild card IF:
- They beat the Jaguars at home
- The Chiefs beat the Chargers at home
- The Browns beat the Ravens in Baltimore

...quite a trifecta.

Hardest one to stomach is the Ratbirds vs. The Browns. Of course if today's Flacco shows up, that could definitely happen. He really really really sucked.

Can you imagine......Case, who didn't win a start in 8 tries before getting cut, gets called off the deer stand and leads the Texans to the playoffs. Holy Moly. Cougar High faithful will be beyond obnoxious.

But I'll take it....... ;)

[popanot]

Well, it looks like Johnny Foos-ball is hurt and Hoyer will likely be at QB, who, while not a great option, at least has something to prove and is playing for a contract (his NFL life) somewhere next year. JFF has been awful and I like the CLE chances of an upset much better with Hoyer at the helm. Let's hope JFF's hammy stays hurt.

[popanot]

Well there goes that idea... :rolleyes:

ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk · 15m15 minutes ago
Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel are both hurt, so it could be Connor Shaw time on Sunday

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/22/hoyer-manziel-are-both-hurt-so-connor-shaw-may-start/

[Keith]

It'd be pretty awesome if the Texans could somehow send J.J. Watt to Baltimore in a Browns uniform just for Sunday. I'd like the playoff odds much more if Watt could terrorize Joe Flacco and the depleted Ravens offensive line one more time...

Back to reality, I imagine the Browns defense will be alright in slowing down the Ravens. Just have to wonder where their offense will come from. TE Jordan Cameron is back again, and maybe their running game will find some holes.

[Arky]

KC is actually a 2.5 pt favorite (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) to beat San Diego.

Unfortunately, the Ravens are 10 pt favorites to defeat the Browns....

Might be a 7th place finish in the AFC for the Texans which would kinda suck but had you told me back in August the Texans would be in the mix in the final week, I would have taken it....

[chuck]

Playing a meaningful final game is a hell of a lot more than any of us had a right to hope for at the beginning of the year.

[barrett]

And amazingly if we snuck into the playoffs we would play either Indy or Pittsburgh, and I think we could compete with either, even with a fourth string quarterback.

[WMH]

Playing a meaningful final game is a hell of a lot more than any of us had a right to hope for at the beginning of the year.

No doubt about it. That's why I am pretty excited about the future.

[chuck]

I just want to see the fake snap over Keenum's head play one more time and then I think the season will feel complete.

[Nconroe]

I was just wondering what other bag of trick plays we might see this game. And Cleveland has won 7 games with Hoyer at QB so there is a slim hope they pull the upset.

Anyways overall happy ending to the season and more to look forward to next season

[HPF Bob]

Hoyer had been upgraded to "probable", fwiw.

If we wind up with a 9-7 season despite little contribution from our top five draft choices, I'm satisfied - playoffs or no playoffs. Hopefully, those draft choices become starters and fixtures next season on top of the ones we will add this spring.

Before puffing our chests too much, we beat pretty much the teams we could expect to beat, other than Baltimore. 3-0 (hopefully 4-0) against Tennessee and Jacksonville, victories over Washington, Oakland, Buffalo and Cleveland - not exactly a murderer's row. Still, we bounced back from 4-5. Hats off to O'Brien and Crennel for a solid 2014 season. The irony is that, next year, we get the NFC South and AFC East, so we could have an even cushier schedule next season and post a winning record and still not be all that good.

We should get:
Indy (2X), Tennessee (2X), Jacksonville (2X), Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, New England, Buffalo, Miami, NY Jets, SD or KC plus the runner-up in the AFC North. That *could* add up to a 13-3 season if our talent grows and our mistakes drop, 11-5 if we're a little worse than that.

[nunusguy]

And amazingly if we snuck into the playoffs we would play either Indy or Pittsburgh, and I think we could compete with either, even with a fourth string quarterback.
We aren't gonna get into the POs if we need Cleveland to go on the road to Baltimore and win, not gonna happen. So far lots of things have fallen in place
for us, but that won't. I'm confidant about beating the JAGS again, and I actually like KC at home vs SD, but the Browns game is just an example of needing help one too many times.

[Arky]

Hoyer had been upgraded to "probable", fwiw.

If we wind up with a 9-7 season despite little contribution from our top five draft choices, I'm satisfied - playoffs or no playoffs. Hopefully, those draft choices become starters and fixtures next season on top of the ones we will add this spring.

Before puffing our chests too much, we beat pretty much the teams we could expect to beat, other than Baltimore. 3-0 (hopefully 4-0) against Tennessee and Jacksonville, victories over Washington, Oakland, Buffalo and Cleveland - not exactly a murderer's row. Still, we bounced back from 4-5. Hats off to O'Brien and Crennel for a solid 2014 season. The irony is that, next year, we get the NFC South and AFC East, so we could have an even cushier schedule next season and post a winning record and still not be all that good.

We should get:
Indy (2X), Tennessee (2X), Jacksonville (2X), Tampa Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, New England, Buffalo, Miami, NY Jets, SD or KC plus the runner-up in the AFC North. That *could* add up to a 13-3 season if our talent grows and our mistakes drop, 11-5 if we're a little worse than that.

Well, I don't think the Browns and Bills are really doormats anymore, at least, this year. For example, the Browns went into Cincy and put a whooping on them; Bills beat the Packers.....

What really hurt was the 7pt or less losses to the Cowboys, Steelers and Colts (2X). If we could've got one of those to go our way.... the stinker against the NY Giants hurt...

I want to see us win our division next year. xxxx the Colts.

[WMH]

We aren't gonna get into the POs if we need Cleveland to go on the road to Baltimore and win, not gonna happen.

Unlikely for sure.

BUT....
Its also unlikely that Oakland will beat Buffalo and knock them from the chase.
Its also unlikely that Houston will beat Baltimore with a 4th string QB that had been there for 4 days.
Its also unlikely that Washington will beat the Eagles with a tattered QB that had been benched in favor of a 3rd stringer.
Its also unlikely that the Jets would take the Pats to the wire in the 4th with home field advantage in jeopardy.

And that was just this last week......

Any Given Sunday mantra is what makes this league so damn entertaining.

[HPF Bob]

Kansas City QB Alex Smith is out for Sunday's game against the Chargers with a lascerated kidney. I think that pretty well dooms us. What are the odds KC wins with their backup QB, Cleveland wins with their recently benched QB and Houston wins with the 4th string QB? We're talking miracle time.

[Keith]

Can KC's backup QB hand it off to Jamaal Charles? Or maybe even toss a TD pass to a WR?

I'm not one to vastly overrate Alex Smith in the first place. :p

[chuck]

Here's a list of the fantasy quarterbacks I have had this year:

Nick Foles
Carson Palmer
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Alex Smith

Next year I'm going all out to draft Tom Brady and Andrew Luck.

[Warren]

The Case Keenum/Connor Shaw/Chase Daniel trifecta wouldn't even be a good bet in the CFL...

[HPF Bob]

The Case Keenum/Connor Shaw/Chase Daniel trifecta wouldn't even be a good bet in the CFL...

But it would prove somebody in the organization has a Tebow-like pipeline to deity. That would be the sort of miracle they do 30-for-30 films about someday.

[HPF Bob]

Next year I'm going all out to draft Tom Brady and Andrew Luck.

Yes, please. :D

[Arky]

KC is actually a 2.5 pt favorite (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) to beat San Diego.

Unfortunately, the Ravens are 10 pt favorites to defeat the Browns....

....

Due to recent QB changes, the Ravens are now (up to) 14 pt favorites over the Browns and KC vs. San Diego has dropped to a "pickem".

Texans still holding at 9.5 to 10.5 pt favorites.....

Right now, purchasing a $10 3-team parlay for the Texans (-500), Browns (+800) and Chiefs (-210) to all win would pay off $149.43..... In the gambling biz, they call this a "long shot", eheh....

[Keith]

Chargers are going to be without RB Ryan Mathews. They're already likely to miss Keenan Allen, too.