Texans to select Clowney....

[HPF Bob]

...in Mel Kiper's latest mock.

That was the blurb that just hit my phone. Grr. Three more weeks of this until anything becomes official. The Bills (soon to be under new ownership) went so far as to close up shop and send everyone home for a week because they felt folks were to the point where they were overthinking and making stupid suggestions because they had analyzed their situation to the point of it getting stale and ridiculous.

The Texans really have three options and each has some risk to it. They've been here before. 2002: David Carr or Julius Peppers? 2006: Vince Young, Reggie Bush or Mario Williams?

2014? It looks like the choices are Jadeveon Clowney, Blake Bortles or trade down. That last option may not be realistic but if, say, the Falcons (at #6) offered their first three choices this year or their first two and their first-rounder from 2015, it would be tempting. The value in this draft is in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Doubling your selections there could pay off handsomely. While the Texans have 11 picks, only three are on the first two days. They will not be able to trade their compensation picks (4-35, 6-35 and 7-41) but they could package some of their other last-day picks to move back up into the third round (using 4-1 and 6-5, for example).

Clowney is the unquestioned "best player in the draft". But he's been dogged by charges of immaturity and laziness. I tend to compare him to Jevon Kearse who was a holy terror with the Titans the first few years before injuries and complacency took their toll.

I suspect what happened to Clowney last year is that he saw what happened to South Carolina teammate Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecock tailback was the next Adrian Peterson before suffering two gruesome knee injuries. He became a low-round pick and missed out on the big money. He may never admit it, but I think Clowney vowed "That's not going to happen to me." So, he dogged it to make sure he'd be healthy for his chance at NFL stardom. Question his motor all you want but, from a pure business standpoint, who could blame him for deciding there was more to life than SEC titles? Even if the Texans pass on him, he'll make some serious coin this summer.

The third option is to draft a QB, most likely Bortles from the impressions coming from Reliant. Bortles has the height, zip and athleticism that Bill O'Brien says he wants at the position. But I watched his game in the Fiesta Bowl and saw him make bad reads and poor decisions. You could see the talent was there but will he have the instincts and the brains for the next level or become David Carr 2.0? UCF did win big but Bortles wasn't the reason.

A&M's Johnny Manziel also is available and he keeps getting celebrity endorsements and pressure from the Aggie faithful. Bob McNair (a South Carolina alum) has had no trouble selling out Reliant Stadium. If game attendance mattered, Johnny Football would be a no-brainer. But it doesn't so he's not going to be the first overall. Houston might take him in a trade down or in the second round but not as first overall.

The Texans badly lacked a pass rush last year so Clowney fills a need. They obviously lacked good quarterback play so Bortles or Manziel fills a need. They also lacked solid play from the right side of the line which made the QB situation even worse.

The top of the draft board has three pass rushers (Clowney, Anthony Barr and Khalil Mack) three quarterbacks ( Bortles, Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater with Derek Carr and Tony Garropolo climbing as draft options) and two top offensive tackles (Jake Matthews and Greg Robinson). The Texans could, in theory, fall to eighth and get one of them while stockpiling later selections.

If Rick Smith were a master drafter, I'd be solidly in the trade down camp. But Smith's ledger is filled with as many misses (Kareem Jackson, Whitney Mercilus) as hits (Watt, Brian Cushing) and trading down for a jackpot of picks only works if you are both lucky and good.

But Clowney and Bortles seem like the two the Texans would take if they can't make a trade down that they like. Of them, I'd rather have Clowney to team with J.J. Watt and give Romeo Crennel several options.

So, for me, it's Clowney and I'm glad Mel Kiper Jr. agrees with me. That is, until he changes his mind next week.

[Keith]

If Rick Smith were a master drafter, I'd be solidly in the trade down camp. But Smith's ledger is filled with as many misses (Kareem Jackson, Whitney Mercilus) as hits (Watt, Brian Cushing) and trading down for a jackpot of picks only works if you are both lucky and good.
No mention of Amobi Okoye? I think I still can hear Rick Smith muttering about how he's still just 26 and has all the pro potential still in front of him...

[HPF Bob]

Keith, this started out as my front page column for the month but I got a little long winded. You are welcome to cut it down to blog size and repost up front.

[HPF Bob]

Razzoo's has ESPiN on now with Kiper and he has the Texans taking Bridgewater in the second. That would be fantastic.

BTW, shouldn't Jaws now be called Jowls? He's showing his age.

[Nconroe]

If Bridgewater there at 2-1 Texans could get some pretty good trade down offers.

[HPF Bob]

It depends on who hasn't scratched their QB itch yet and who is left on the board.

Teams expected to draft a QB early:

HOU
JAX
CLE
MIN

Teams who might draft a QB early:
OAK
TAM
TEN
STL

If, for example, Bortles, Manziel and Carr were taken in the first round and Bridgewater is there at 2-1, who would trade up to get him away from the Texans? And would the Texans deal with the Titans for a guy ho could haunt them for years? Then again, a small trade down with Cleveland or Jacksonville, knowing they already took their QB earlier, would probably be safe because Washington isn't in the market and the others aren't going to be either so they could probably deal down to 2-4 or 2-5 and still find Bridgewater there if they wanted to play that game.

[Arky]

BTW, shouldn't Jaws now be called Jowls? He's showing his age.

Eheh. Ya, he's gone from the Polish Rifle to a guy that looks like he could portray one of the dads in the next Revenge of the Nerds movie....

------------------------

McClain was on the radio today and made a case for the Texans definitely picking a QB @ 1.1. His logic was that they have the pick of the litter - maybe the only time they will have this opportunity during OB's reign..... Not sure I agree (with a QB @ 1.1). The Bridgewater @ 2.1 was discussed and IIRC, he said that no way Teddy drops to 2.1. I mostly agree with that....

McClain also said "no way" on Garappolo or Carr (of course) @ 2.1....

[HPF Bob]

Well, yeah, if you're going to pitch a QB at 1-1, you won't find anybody acceptable at 2-1 or it destroys your argument. I'm sure McClain really wants them to take Manziel because that will make *his* life easier. JFF is like a one-man publicity machine from a local college with a huge fanbase. From a beat reporter's viewpoint, what's not to like?

The counter, of course, to his "pick of the litter" theory is that if none of the QBs are really worth a 1-1, then why pick one over a better athlete at another position of need?

I think the last two NFC Super Bowl teams prove you don't need to take a QB at 1-1 to make the big dance.

[nunusguy]

Eheh. Ya, he's gone from the Polish Rifle to a guy that looks like he could portray one of the dads in the next Revenge of the Nerds movie....

------------------------

McClain was on the radio today and made a case for the Texans definitely picking a QB @ 1.1. His logic was that they have the pick of the litter - maybe the only time they will have this opportunity during OB's reign..... Not sure I agree (with a QB @ 1.1). The Bridgewater @ 2.1 was discussed and IIRC, he said that no way Teddy drops to 2.1. I mostly agree with that....

McClain also said "no way" on Garappolo or Carr (of course) @ 2.1....
Right, I heard that to. So based on that inside tip, I'm upping the odds of a certain rookie QB from Eastern Illinois to be playing for the Texans this year.
I swear I don't why, but I like to listen to McClain tell some of his stories from back in the day, but when it comes to John's "evaluation skills" for selection of prospects in the NFL Draft, not so much. Oh yea, I also don't know why, but I enjoy some of his Hollywood stories. What a cornball, but he can be amusing now and then.

[Arky]

Right, I heard that to. So based on that inside tip, I'm upping the odds of a certain rookie QB from Eastern Illinois to be playing for the Texans this year.
I swear I don't why, but I like to listen to McClain tell some of his stories from back in the day, but when it comes to John's "evaluation skills" for selection of prospects in the NFL Draft, not so much. Oh yea, I also don't know why, but I enjoy some of his Hollywood stories. What a cornball, but he can be amusing now and then.

Ya, I agree - he's basically a good guy in my book. People love to jump all over him when he's wrong but don't give him credit when he's right. He's not afraid to stick his neck out on something... Some of his behind-the-scenes stories are enlightening....

[chuck]

He can't help but stick his neck out. His neck sticks out.

[Blitzwood]

I've never been able to see his neck.

[Warren]

Peter King: (http://mmqb.si.com/2014/04/21/2014-nfl-draft-rumors-monday-morning-quarterback/)
Houston, at No. 1, isn’t set on Jadeveon Clowney. In fact, one FORS (Friend of Rick Smith) told me the Texans general manager likes Khalil Mack over Clowney, and we still don’t know which quarterback Houston would choose if it chooses one first overall. I still think the Texans would go with a more sure thing with the first overall pick than a quarterback—and that sure thing could also be tackle Greg Robinson. But imagine Mack, the outside linebacker from the University of Buffalo, being the first pick in a stacked draft. Wouldn’t that be something—a second straight Mid-American Conference player (Eric Fisher, Central Michigan, by Kansas City) as the top pick in the NFL draft?

[Joshua]

Don't know what to make of Mack rumor, assuming it's true. I don't see any value in it as a smokescreen. If they are looking to trade the pick (and it's assumed Clowney is the most likely guy a team would trade up for), the message should be that we are high on Clowney and if you want him you have to deal with us. This rumor will just make those people pick up the phone and call St. louis.

[Nconroe]

Yeah, but if you want to get ahead of whatever St Louis might do, the only way is to deal for 1-1. And if there gets to be three or four teams trying to be 1-1, very good for trade down options. Anyways, only 2 1/2 more weeks before we see what really happens. enjoying watching how this unfolds.

[HPF Bob]

Last week, I was weighing whether Mack or Barr was the better option. Barr, at 6-5, can probably play with his hands down and handle the point of attack better than the smaller Mack but Mack has more LB experience, is faster, and shows some pass defense skills (4 INTs). Does 2 years in the Pac 12 count for more than 4 years in the MAC?

And would the Bills pass up the boy from the local college if he were really the best player in the draft? Could they possibly want to trade up just to be sure they get him?

[popanot]

Mack is a beast and reminds me a lot of Patrick Willis in his aggressive style of play and physicality. There's no questioning his motor and skills. I'm not sure I'd take him #1 overall, but I'd love it if they traded down and ended up with him.

If I were Rick Smith and the opportunity presented itself, I'd trade down with ATL at #6. You're assured of either Clowney, Mack, Robinson, QB-XYZ (likely Bortles), Matthews, or Watkins. All good players that fill a need. Watkins to a lessor extent, but we all know AJ is getting up there and his salary is becoming an issue. If you don't necessarily want Watkins, I'm sure there's a team willing to trade up for him - maybe STL or DET. Just saying #6 seems to be a sweet spot with fairly low risk as far as missing out on a top talent at a position of need.

[HPF Bob]

If I were Rick Smith and the opportunity presented itself, I'd trade down with ATL at #6. You're assured of either Clowney, Mack, Robinson, QB-XYZ (likely Bortles), Matthews, or Watkins.

I think it depends on what Atlanta offers to trade up but I would presume the 2nd round pick as well as one other this year or next. (min: 1-6, 2-5 and 4-3 or a 1st or 2nd in 2015). The value in this draft (as it often is) is in the second and third rounds so having multiple picks there is a quick way to do a fast rebuild.

While I love Watkins, I think WR is our least position of need unless we actually trade AJ which isn't happening that quickly.

But I agree with the premise. At #6, you can have Clowney, Mack, QOTF, Robinson, Matthews or (at worst) Barr or a second trade down involving Watkins.

[popanot]

Chances are extremely high that ATL trades up for Clowney. They'll need to go to #1 to get him. Rumor is the Texans want #6, 37, a 2015 #1 and possibly a late 2014 pick. I'd do it for the first 3 in that list. Maybe we need to look our options at #6. Personally, I'd take Mack (doubt he's there tho) or Matthews at #6 and wait on QB. Bortles would be the only QB I'd take that high if QB is the choice.

[barrett]

Chances are extremely high that ATL trades up for Clowney. They'll need to go to #1 to get him. Rumor is the Texans want #6, 37, a 2015 #1 and possibly a late 2014 pick. I'd do it for the first 3 in that list. Maybe we need to look our options at #6. Personally, I'd take Mack (doubt he's there tho) or Matthews at #6 and wait on QB. Bortles would be the only QB I'd take that high if QB is the choice.

Atlanta had a season similar to ours last year in that they opened with high expectations and ended in disaster. But they did not blow it up like us. They think they can be right back contending for a super bowl this year. This lends support to the thought they would give up a 2015 1st. They are coaching for their jobs there and they either win this year (and it's a low pick) or they get fired and they don't care who has the pick.

I would jump all over this. At worst we get a low 1st. At best they fall apart under Mike Smith again, he gets fired, and we end up with a pick near the top of next year's draft.

[chuck]

I would be all over this, too. Clowney may very well be the best player in the draft but I think there are too many question marks to take him first overall, certainly for the Texans to do so.

This is a deep draft and basically the only place I don't see a lot of value is at 1-1 so if someone else wants that pick and the Texans get a number of other picks in return I think it would be irresponsible not to do this.

I guess what I'm saying is that if the Texans pass on Clowney for more draft picks and Clowney goes on to be a monster I'll be fine with that. If they miss with a QB that they pick in the first or at the top of the second I'll be pissed.

[nunusguy]

Chances are extremely high that ATL trades up for Clowney. They'll need to go to #1 to get him. Rumor is the Texans want #6, 37, a 2015 #1 and possibly a late 2014 pick. I'd do it for the first 3 in that list. Maybe we need to look our options at #6. Personally, I'd take Mack (doubt he's there tho) or Matthews at #6 and wait on QB. Bortles would be the only QB I'd take that high if QB is the choice.
That would be a great deal for us, and actually I'd accept less than that for our #1.

[HPF Bob]

I agree. Trading down makes sense so long as we don't settle for too little on the trade and we get a guy at 1-6 that was the guy we really wanted all along.

I'm okay at 1-6 with (in order) Clowney, Mack, Matthews, Robinson, Bortles and Barr. I'd really hope that somebody bites on Manziel and Watkins so we have some options.

I'd accept an offer with the Falcons for 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 1st, 2nd, 2015 1st or 1st, 2nd, 4th and 2015 2nd. Keep in mind the Falcons were the NFC version of the Texans and just had a season where everything went wrong. I'd expect them to be a .500 team next year meaning not a top-round draft choice if we go the 2015 route.

[chuck]

If one of the teams with picks 2-5 goes with a QB (which is quite probable given who the teams are) then the Texans will surely have the opportunity to draft a guy who will make an immediate impact. And I would be happy with any of the guys who'd still be there, including Watkins, who I think is going to be a monster. If he's the best player on your board then take him and let DCs figure out how to cover him, Dre and Nuke.

[popanot]

Man, I really like Mack and I think the Texans do too. If we did trade #1 for #6, #37 and a 2015 #1, I'd consider - if STL would do it - trading back up to #2 for #6 and #33 ~OR~ #37 (preferrably #37) to get Mack. That would give us Mack + a 2015 #1. Not a bad haul for moving down from #1 to #2.

[Joshua]

If I had to guess, Atlanta and Houston will work out a deal but it will be contingent on someone that Houston wants still being there when Atlanta picks. If that happens, the trade goes down.

If there is a QB that O'Brien thinks can be a franchise QB, I'm inclined to stay and No. 1 and just take him--the chance of getting one is just too important. If they are thinking Clowney at No. 1, then I would welcome a trade down.

[nunusguy]

Man, I really like Mack and I think the Texans do too. If we did trade #1 for #6, #37 and a 2015 #1, I'd consider - if STL would do it - trading back up to #2 for #6 and #33 ~OR~ #37 (preferrably #37) to get Mack. That would give us Mack + a 2015 #1. Not a bad haul for moving down from #1 to #2.

But we can get a very good player at several different positions @ 1.6 who would help us a lot, don't need to think about trading back. For example @ 1.6 I wouldn't mind using the pick on an OT or Watkins if Mack was off of the Board. We need lots of help.

[WMH]

I guess what I'm saying is that if the Texans pass on Clowney for more draft picks and Clowney goes on to be a monster I'll be fine with that. If they miss with a QB that they pick in the first or at the top of the second I'll be pissed.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you'll be pissed regardless.

[chuck]

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you'll be pissed regardless.

It's funny, you know, now that Kubiak's gone I find that I have a completely different attitude about this team. I don't know whether BOB is going to be a good coach or not but I do know that he is not an idiot so we're headed in the right direction on that count at least. He seems to live in 2014 rather than the 1980's so we're headed in the right direction on that count, too.

Last year my anger turned to fascination about game five so I can't really say I've been all that worked up about anything since then. This year I really don't have a guy I hope they get nor is there anything particular I'm wound up about their doing. I'd love to see them trade down because this is a deep draft and the team needs so much but if BOB loves a guy at #1 then I love him too.

I mean, I do like being annoyed so I can always find something but in all honesty as I get older I find that my passion for professional sports dims. It helps that to me the NBA is unwatchable and that the Astros are an American League shambles. I don't feel like I'm missing too much there. I do watch a lot of futbol, though, and since my teams are always serious underdogs it doesn't freak me out nearly as much as it might when they lose in spectacular, 1992 Oilers fashion.

Now I think I'm going to go meditate under a palm tree.

[HPF Bob]

Rockets, Astros and Texans: God's way of telling Houstonians there is something more important to do in life.

[painekiller]

Last year my anger turned to fascination about game five so I can't really say I've been all that worked up about anything since then. This year I really don't have a guy I hope they get nor is there anything particular I'm wound up about their doing. I'd love to see them trade down because this is a deep draft and the team needs so much but if BOB loves a guy at #1 then I love him too.

Like you, I was done with the Kubiak Texans very early on last season. I'm not sure what kind of coach O'Brien will be, but see him as a guy on the edge of change, not stuck with a system that worked 15 years ago.

I'm not sold on this years draft crop of QBs, and also not sold on Clowney's fit with Crennel's defense. That said, based on current trends in the NFL, the base defense will only be played 20% of the plays, and how does an offense defend against Watt, and Clowney, plus the some of the other talent on the team. I think it will be fun to watch a defense with those two together.

I could also go for a trade down, grabbing a Mack(unlikely to be there) or Matthews at 1-6.

I wish the draft were here already. Jez.........