Mock Draft Simulater

[BigBull]

I thought I share this with y'all. It's a neat for those who like mock drafts. http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

[HPF Bob]

I thought I share this with y'all. It's a neat for those who like mock drafts. http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

Thanks. This is fun. I decided first to see what happens if I start with Clowney:

1. Jadaveon Clowney, DE, S. Carolina

As you might expect, the big name QBs fell off the board leaving Zach Mettenberger, A.J. McCarron, Tahj Boyd and Aaron Murray. But I figure they can wait. OG-OC Cyril Richardson and DB Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix are available but I fall back on getting help in the middle:

2. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford

At the start of Round 3, all the QBs are still available so I take the one I think O'Brien would like even though I'm not a big fan.

3. Zach Mettenberg, QB, LSU

Now back to helping the defense (I'd love to help the OL but I'm too unfamiliar with the OT candidates at this level of the draft board).

4. Dominique Easley, DT, Florida

A very talented guy in the middle who has had some injury issues. Florida's defemse was stout even though their offense was crappy. And here's another big-play guy who I'm shocked is still there:

5. Chris Davis, CB, Auburn

You can see I probably saw more SEC than other parts of the country this year. I really have no idea who O'Brien or Crennel wants or whether Rick Smith or Bob McNair will have some influence. I'd also love it if you could do trade downs.

I gotta get ready for work so I'll try my hand at a Bridgewater draft later.


5.

[popanot]

Thanks. This is fun. I decided first to see what happens if I start with Clowney:

1. Jadaveon Clowney, DE, S. Carolina

As you might expect, the big name QBs fell off the board leaving Zach Mettenberger...Odd... When I chose Clowney first, Mettenberger went late first round to another team. I didn't pay attention to which team it was. Pretty fickle computer. :)

[HPF Bob]

I see what you mean. I just started with Jake Matthews and Derek Carr goes off the board before Clowney who fell to #6.

Sounds like this needs more tweaking.:rolleyes:

[HPF Bob]

1. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
2. Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.
3. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
4. Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas
5. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson

Mettenberg was still there in the third again.

I'm toying with the idea of O'Brien trading our second to the Patriots for QB Ryan Mallett. It's probably too high a pick to give up but he's not just a backup QB. He's knows O'Brien's system from New England days so he should have a quick learning curve to his system.

And Belichick *loves* having a pick at that point in the draft because he can package this and his low first to move up or he can start trading down to acquire more picks so he can start building back depth.

[HPF Bob]

After I took Bridgewater, entirely different options started opening up.

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. Kyle Van Noy, DE-OLB, BYU
3. Juwaun James, OT, Tennessee
4. Dominique Easley, DT, Florida
5. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio St.

[chuck]

1. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
2. Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St.
3. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
4. Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas
5. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson


Other than taking a RT 1-1 this would be a home run draft. Trade back, grab another second, throw the best OG on the table into the mix and now we're talking.

[HPF Bob]

This site updates every Tuesday so it weighed in the risers and fallers from the Senior Bowl and my Clowney draft had some big surprises. Without trading up or back, this might be a dream draft:

1. Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
2. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
3. Cyril Richardson, G, Baylor
4. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
5. Max Bullough, ILB, Michigan St.
6. Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
7. Carrington Byndum, CB, Texas

Picks 2-3 were in the "too good to pass up" category. Hyde and Bullough fill needs while the two corners at the bottom are both solid guys who held up well against top competition.

While I'm skittish about Manzeil, he's less of a risk at 2-1 and should at least have a longer honeymoon than some other QBs we could bring in.

[Arky]

I like Manziel but I think no way he lasts till 2.1.

So (somebody had to do it):


1 (1) QB JOHNNY MANZIEL TEXAS A&M

2 (33) TE JACE AMARO TEXAS TECH

3 (65) ILB CHRIS BORLAND WISCONSIN

4 (97) DT DOMINIQUE EASLEY FLORIDA

5 (129) CB ROSS COCKRELL DUKE

I think whomever gets Manziel really ought to bring him along slower than what has become the norm lately (i.e., being thrown to the wolves). He's still practically a teenager. Perhaps, at least, splitting time with a vet during his first year.....

[chuck]

Arky, you're fired. You can go be the Ravens' strength and conditioning coordinator.

[Keith]

lol

Since I don't want to fire every poster here, thought I'd put up instead of shut up with my own run at this feature.

1 (1) QB Teddy Bridgewater Louisville
2 (33) DT Timmy Jernigan Florida State
3 (65) ILB Chris Borland Wisconsin
4 (97) DE Marcus Smith Louisville

...would probably look really hard at DBs and TEs the rest of the way. Probably means going to free agency pre-draft to find a little vet depth for the OL. Picking front 7 is a little tough since I still need to sit down with RAC on what he wants up there, but these three have caught my eye.

[chuck]

I would also like to know more about the OL that the team carried on the IR last year, the rookies. Do they have any promise? That would certainly affect my perception of need one way or the other.

[Arky]

Arky, you're fired. You can go be the Ravens' strength and conditioning coordinator.

Eheh, actually Eric Winston had the best quote I heard so far on Manziel: "He's (Manziel) going to get someone fired. Either the guy that picks him or the guy that *doesn't* pick him." Nick Wright (610 morning guy) has used the same quote....

[HPF Bob]

I'm not really listening to any talk about Bortles, Carr or Manzeil at 1-1. If we're going that route, it really has to be Bridgewater because he's the guy who has played in a pro-style offense and is the most ready to start the season as "the guy" under center. I can see drafting Clowney or trading down as the two other viable options.

Using the Mock Simulator, here's my latest "Bridgewater Draft". I expected to go heavy on defense but never found the RT I wanted. This draft, however, should vastly improve our pass rush and interior defense:

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. Kyle Van Noy, DE-OLB, BYU
3. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
4. Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas
5. Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia
6. Shaquille Richardson, CB, Arizona
7. Walt Aikens, CB, Liberty

Several of these were the top of the draft board at their point.

[Joshua]

I'm not really listening to any talk about Bortles, Carr or Manzeil at 1-1. If we're going that route, it really has to be Bridgewater because he's the guy who has played in a pro-style offense and is the most ready to start the season as "the guy" under center. I can see drafting Clowney or trading down as the two other viable options.

Using the Mock Simulator, here's my latest "Bridgewater Draft". I expected to go heavy on defense but never found the RT I wanted. This draft, however, should vastly improve our pass rush and interior defense:

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. Kyle Van Noy, DE-OLB, BYU
3. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
4. Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas
5. Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia
6. Shaquille Richardson, CB, Arizona
7. Walt Aikens, CB, Liberty

Several of these were the top of the draft board at their point.

If you think Bridgewater is the best prospect, that's fine. But to suggest we should use the No. 1 pick on a guy because he's the best equipped to start day 1 is laughable. You take the guy you think has the best chance of developing into an elite QB. Who you think has the best chance to win games September 2014 is a ridiculous reason to draft someone No. 1.

[Arky]

Here's a "trenchy" draft:


1. (1) DE JADEVEON CLOWNEY - SOUTH CAROLINA
2. (33) G DAVID YANKEY - STANFORD
3. (65) OT MORGAN MOSES - VIRGINIA
4. (97) DT KELCY QUARLES - SOUTH CAROLINA
5. (129) QB A.J. MCCARRON - ALABAMA

Murray (Georgia), Smith (Wyoming), Fales (San Jose State) and Boyd (Clemson) were all still available at the QB position in the 5th round according to the simulator. I went with McCarron....

Eh, it's going to be a long off season....

[HPF Bob]

If you think Bridgewater is the best prospect, that's fine. But to suggest we should use the No. 1 pick on a guy because he's the best equipped to start day 1 is laughable. You take the guy you think has the best chance of developing into an elite QB. Who you think has the best chance to win games September 2014 is a ridiculous reason to draft someone No. 1.

That depends on what becomes of Schaub. If he's cut (or traded), then you're asking Keenum to take over as your starter in an entirely new offense until your "best prospect" quarterback is developed. Now, if he can't beat out Keenum for the job, why the hell did you draft him 1-1? :confused:

You draft a QB at 1-1 because he'll be ready to start on Day One and the only guy of the four that looks like he has all of that is Bridgewater. He has the experience and the maturity to be that sort of player who can assume that mantle.

What's laughable is to draft a QB 1-1 then sit him behind Case Keenum while he learns the job. If Schaub is still around, I could see learning at his feet for a few months if you can stomach the interceptions. But I think Schaub is going to be a June cut if he isn't traded before then.

I think in a good draft, Bridgewater is probably a mid-first QB and Bortles might go ahead of him because of size and athleticism but the Texans won't have that situation unless they trade down so a 1-1 "franchise" QB needs to be ready to walk into camp and take over. Of the four QB hopefuls, Bridgewater is the only one who I think could pull that off.

[HPF Bob]

My "Clowney Draft" has a surprise fall into the second round that changed my whole approach. Unfortunately, I kept waiting another round for a QB until all the best ones were gone.

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
2. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
3. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
4. Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
5. Lamin Barrow, ILB, LSU
6. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson
7. Walt Aikens, CB, Liberty

I'd walk away pretty happy with this. Kouandjio can be the new RT until Duane Brown is done. Seastrunk should be great insurance if Foster struggles and Boyd, in the sixth, is a low risk who might still turn into something outstanding someday.

[HPF Bob]

My latest "Clowney" draft:

1. Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
2. Jace Amaro, TE Texas Tech - Amaro (6-6, 260) is supposed to be this draft's Rob Gronkowski and, let me see, isn't the new head coach the guy who made a star out of the last Rob Gronkowski?
3. Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin - Help and insurance for Brian Cushing.
4. Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois - ranked in the low first round in some mocks. A steal this late.
5. A.J. McCarron, QB, Alabama. All he does is win championships. A caretaker QB who seems to give you just enough to win. Rarely makes mistakes.
6. Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn. Depth at two positions and can make big plays.
7. Trai Turner, G, LSU. Another OL candidate.

My latest "Bridgewater" draft:

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. David Yankey, G, Stanford - He might convert to tackle but he'll solve one problem on the right side of the line. One Yankey who will be proud to be a Texan.
3. Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St. - Help and insurance for Brian Cushing.
4. DaQuan Jones, DT, Penn State - You knew O'Brien would get this one.
5. Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington - Slightly undersized but great one-cut back in the mold of Arian Foster.
6. Chris Davis, CB/KR, Auburn - Depth for two positions.
7. Aaron Lynch, DE, South Florida - position depth.

[chuck]

A.J. McCarron, QB, Alabama. Rarely makes mistakes.

I guess you haven't seen his tattoo.

[HPF Bob]

I guess you haven't seen his tattoo.

No, but Brent Musburger and I have seen his girlfriend. ;)

[chuck]

No, but Brent Musburger and I have seen his girlfriend. ;)

I thought we were talking about mistakes.

[painekiller]

My "Clowney Draft" has a surprise fall into the second round that changed my whole approach. Unfortunately, I kept waiting another round for a QB until all the best ones were gone.

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
2. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
3. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
4. Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
5. Lamin Barrow, ILB, LSU
6. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson
7. Walt Aikens, CB, Liberty

I'd walk away pretty happy with this. Kouandjio can be the new RT until Duane Brown is done. Seastrunk should be great insurance if Foster struggles and Boyd, in the sixth, is a low risk who might still turn into something outstanding someday.

If it fell this way, I would be pretty happy also.

The Texans have some inside information from former coaches of Clowney's on staff here now, and they would know about his desire and real work ethic.

[HPF Bob]

My "Clowney" draft:

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE-OLB, S.Carolina
2. David Yankey, G-T, Stanford
3. Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio St. - Not sure why the drop. But if he's still there in the 3rd, I'll take him.
4. A.J. McCarron, QB, Alabama
5. Max Bullough, ILB, Michigan St.
6. Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
7. Tyler Gaffney, RB, Stanford

My "Bridgewater" draft:

1. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
2. Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio St.
3. Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
4. Anthony Steen, OG, Alabama
5. Bruce Ellington, WR, S. Carolina
6. Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
7. Tyler Gaffney, RB, Stanford

[HPF Bob]

Fanspeak now has three big boards to choose from - Fanspeak, Walter Football and Optimum Scouting.

Here's the latest Clowney draft with the Fanspeak big board. Again, opportunity alters the projections:

1. DE-OLB Jadeveon Clowney, S. Carolina
2. DT Louis Nix III, Notre Dame (a big body to replace Earl Mitchell that amazingly falls to us).
3. OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama (a massive tackle who can be RT now and LT later)
4. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, E. Illinois (he's up to #5 on numerous QB draft rankings - similar to Tony Romo)
5. ILB Max Bullough, Michigan State (help for Cushing)
6. CB/KR Chris Davis, Jr., Auburn (still like what I saw of him late in year)
7. CB Andre Hal, Vanderbilt (another corner with SEC experience)

Now the latest Bridgewater draft:

1. QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
2. OLB Dee Ford, Auburn (trash-talking speed rusher off the edge)
3. OT Joel Bitonio, Nevada (OLs flew off the board this time. He was the best left)
4. DT Daquan Jones, Penn St. (O'Brien gets his pick)
5. ILB Max Bullough, Michigan State
6. CB/KR Chris Davis, Jr., Auburn
7. CB Andre Hal, Vanderbilt

[Roy P]

If you took those together and gave me ANYBODY (Watkins, Mosely, Gilbert, Ebron) in the first round I'd be happy with this:

2. OLB Dee Ford, Auburn (trash-talking speed rusher off the edge)
3. OT Joel Bitonio, Nevada (OLs flew off the board this time. He was the best left)
4. QB Jimmy Garoppolo

[HPF Bob]

Well, Fanspeak is getting even more creative. You can now choose between three different big boards and, for $4.95 charge to PayPal, you can have trades proposed and create your own plus access other resources.

So I tried the Walter Football Big Board and made two trades:

I traded our 1-1 to the Browns for their 1-4, 2-3 and next year's first (which ought to be first-half so you'd have two top-half #1s to go after a great player next year) then, when I saw so much available at 2-1, decided to trade it to the Rams for 2-12 and an added 4th-rounder.

I figured I would then have to pick between Clowney and the three QBs with one or two options off the table. Instead, the choices were 2 WRs and Jake Matthews so I still had the same decision. I decided to go with Clowney at 1-4. The remainder were:

1-4: Jadeveon Clowney, OLB-DE, S. Carolina
2-3: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
2-12: David Yankey, G-T, Stanford
3-1: Jimmy Garrapolo, QB, Eastern Illinois
4-1: Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-10: DaQuan Jones, DT, Penn St.
5-1: Storm Johnson, RB, Central Florida
6-1: Lamin Barrow, ILB, LSU
7-1: Aaron Colvin, CB, Oklahoma

Now, let's try with Optimum Scouting big board:

Son of a duck, the same trade with the Browns happens and the Browns take Bortles but, at 1-4, the same choice of Clowney or Bridgewater is there. I guess I'll take Clowney again.

Amaro, Yankey and Garrapolo were all taken in the first round but there are a pair of well-known Aggies available and several other good choices. I traded down twice more to give me three picks in the 4th but no 7th.
I came out with:

1-4: Jadaveon Clowney, OLB-DE, S. Carolina
2-3: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
2-9: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M (too good to pass up here)
3-7: Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada
4-1: DaQuan Jones, DT, Penn St.
4-9: A.J. McCarron, QB, Alabama
4-27:Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
5-1: Jackson Jeffcoat, OLB-DE, Texas (too good to pass up here)
6-1: Max Bulloch, ILB, Michigan St.

In both cases, I also have next year's #1 from Cleveland.

[chuck]

In both cases, I also have next year's #1 from Cleveland.

Good work. They have no quarterback and their running back will be injured most of the year so that should result in a great pick for us in 2015.

[Roy P]

Not bad, Bob. Just curious about how you would utilize Clowney though. Do you see him as a Two-gap DE in the 3-4 like Richard Seymour or an OLB like Willie McGinnist in Romeo's defense?

[nunusguy]

Not bad, Bob. Just curious about how you would utilize Clowney though. Do you see him as a Two-gap DE in the 3-4 like Richard Seymour or an OLB like Willie McGinnist in Romeo's defense?
I know your question was directed to Bob, but I'm going to take a shot at it here. Notwithstanding any reported non-football issues, Clowney is a tremendous football play, not just a tremendous athlete. And he's not one-dimensional because he's strong against the run beside being a truly elite pass-rusher: he's the consensous #1 talent in this very talented Draft.
Now to your question about how would O'Brien/Crennel play him in Crennel's defense ? If O'Brien and his DC would be incapable of knowing how to figure out how to employ/apply this most talented football player in this the 2014 NFL Draft in their defense, then Bob McNair made a major mistake when he hired O'Brien to be his new HC.

[HPF Bob]

The short answer is "like McGinnest". A talent like Clowney is all about creating mismatches and getting him upfield quickly to disrupt plays. Therefore, I would want him and Watt to line up all over the place - sometimes together and sometimes on opposite sides so defenses have to read both before reacting. He would be what Wade Phillips tried to do with Mario Williams but I think Clowney is better suited for it. I think Clowney and Watt will make the other even better and if a third guy (Mercilous, Reed, Cushing or a Jackson Jeffcoat I drafted in one mock) becomes a consistent rusher you've made the defense really tough for opponents.

[Roy P]

OK, I can go with that, but I like Barr in that role. He seems as if he could also not be a fish out of water when asked on those rare occasions to drop into coverage. That's why I'm so hoping that we can trade down and pick up extra picks. If Clowney didn't have the 'work ethic' baggage, we might be able to easily find someone to trade up for him.

[HPF Bob]

Guys like Barr and Mack are fine but they could also be liabilities against the run where a guy like Clowney can hold up at the point of attack in goalline packages because he has DE size to go with his OLB quickness. That's why he's a matchup headache which would give us a second one to go with Watt. Put those two on a front seven and everyone else, even Cushing, gets single coverage which means you just have to beat your man to make the play. Next you start mixing in some blitzers and you are giving the opposing team a lot of different stuff they don't have answers for.

If we pass that up for Bortles, he better be at least a Phil Simms-caliber QB or we have really screwed ourselves.

[Arky]

1-4: Jadeveon Clowney, OLB-DE, S. Carolina
2-3: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
2-12: David Yankey, G-T, Stanford
3-1: Jimmy Garrapolo, QB, Eastern Illinois
4-1: Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-10: DaQuan Jones, DT, Penn St.


I only saw a couple of Texas Tech games last year but Jace Amaro looked dominant in both..... a man among boys.... Someone is going to get a good TE...

[HPF Bob]

I doubt Amaro gets past the Patriots but I've said elsewhere that he is the next Gronkowski - big dude with good hands and downfield speed. And guess what? We now have the guy who developed the first Gronkowski. I doubt Amaro is there at 2-1 but, if he is, you have to put your other plans on hold and take him - especially now that we've released Owen Daniels.

On again, today's NFL is about creating mismatches and this guy is too fast for most LBs and too big for most safeties to cover. You can take an average QB (ie Fitzpatrick) and put a security blanket like Amaro around him and he will get instantly better.

[nunusguy]

Guys like Barr and Mack are fine but they could also be liabilities against the run where a guy like Clowney can hold up at the point of attack in goalline packages because he has DE size to go with his OLB quickness. That's why he's a matchup headache which would give us a second one to go with Watt. Put those two on a front seven and everyone else, even Cushing, gets single coverage which means you just have to beat your man to make the play. Next you start mixing in some blitzers and you are giving the opposing team a lot of different stuff they don't have answers for.

If we pass that up for Bortles, he better be at least a Phil Simms-caliber QB or we have really screwed ourselves.

Clowney is such an obvious choice here especially when O'Brien can get the equivalent if not superior prospect in the second round to any of the "big 3" for his QB to groom for the future. Hey folks, just because you use a first round pick on a QB doesn't necessarily mean you get a first round QB.

[HPF Bob]

The Fitzpatrick signing convinces me about 85% sure we are taking Bortles at 1-1 so, using the Fanspeak big board and adding the 6-5 pick from Oakland, I stay at 1-1 and draft this way:

1-1 Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
2-1 Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
I trade down from 3-1 and 4-1 to add extra picks in the 4th and 5th rounds:
3-7 Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
4-10 Jack Mewhort, OT, Ohio St.
4-27 Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
5-1 Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech
5-13 Taylor Hart, DE, Oregon
6-1 Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
6-5 Storm Johnson, RB, UCF
7-1 Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse

Didn't do as much with the pass rush as I'd like but I'm pretty happy with my top 3 if Bortles is my decision at 1-1.

[chuck]

I'm trying to figure out if I think the signing means they're taking Bortles or if it means they're taking Clowney. You could certainly argue it either way.

[Nconroe]

I am thinking a tall CB similar to Seattle might be helpful on defense.
These two might be available in second to fourth round.

87 Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB 11 NebraskaSr 6-3 218 3
94 Keith McGill. CB 12 UtahrSr. 6-3 211 S

[HPF Bob]

Tried the Walter Football Big Board and was set to draft Bortles 1-1 but the Falcons stepped up and said they wanted it to draft Clowney. They offered the Texans their first (#6), second (#5), third (#4) and fourth (#3) to move up. I swallowed hard and said yes. Adding the Raiders 6th for Schaub, it gave us two picks near the top of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th.

The Falcons took Clowney. The Jags took Manziel. The Browns took Bridgewater and left me, at #6 with a choice of Bortles or Matthews. Observe:

1-6: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
2-1: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
2-5: Dee Ford, DE-OLB, Auburn
3-1: Cyrus Kouandijo, OT, Alabama
3-4: Tre Mason, RB, Auburn

Having re-tooled the offense, the third day was all about defense:

4-1: Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-3: Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas
5-1: Calvin Barnett, DT, Oklahoma St.
6-1: Walt Aikens, CB, Liberty (talented but kicked off two programs)
6-5: Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech
7-1: Preston Brown, ILB, Louisville

The secondary might still be a bit weak but the front seven is stacked. You've got Ford, Jeffcoat and Mercilous edge rushing, You've got Watt, Crick and some anchors in the d-line and ILBs like Cushing, Jones and Brown to clean up the middle. Then there's Brooks Reed to fit inside or outside as needed. That front seven will have depth and bring pressure.

Offensively, the problem spot is the guards but you have a lot of candidates and the guards can be hidden with good surrounding players. Bortles/Fitzpatrick will have Foster and Mason sharing carries, Graham and Amaro to work the short passing game and AJ, DeAndre, Posey and Martin available out wide.

So, there are some holes left but that's really a lot of talent and a lot of weapons for O'Brien and Crennel to sculpt.

I'm starting to see that the Texans are going to have a lot of good choices at 2-1 and if they could add another high second, you could get three guys who can make an instant impact on the ballclub.

[Roy P]

I wouldn't have to swallow too hard to take the Falcon's offer. I would have to say, I'm thinking Bortles is going to be the pick.

1-6: QB Blake Bortles
2-1: OL Xavier Su'a-Filo
2-5: LB Dee Ford
3-1: DE Kareem Martin
3-4: RB Bishop Sankey (Tre Mason went undrafted?)
4-1: WR Martavis Bryant
4-3: LB Jordan Tripp
5-1: DT Caraun Reid
6-1: CB Phillip Gaines
7-1: LB Avery Williamson

McCaron & Garoppolo were much lower than I anticipated

[popanot]

We'll probably get a couple Comp picks for Barwin and Quinn. I would assume 5th rounders.

[HPF Bob]

Depends on how much the Ed Reed signing offset that.

IIRC, the formula is based on money spent, not impact.

[Warren]

This site (http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html) predicts that they'll get two 5th rounders.

According to the rules provided on that site, I don't think Reed counts against them because he was (I think) released before the midseason point.

Besides Reed, they signed Greg Jones and Shane Lechler, and lost Quin, Barwin, James Casey, Donnie Jones, Alan Ball, Justin Forsett, and James Casey. They released Kevin Walter so he doesn't count as a loss.

[HPF Bob]

If that projection is right, we would get the last comp pick in the fifth, the first pick in the sixth and the fifth pick in the sixth (Raiders for Schaub). Teams cannot trade comp picks but they could easily pair the two sixths to move up to the lower fourth and still have those comp picks to make up for the ones they traded away.

[WMH]

Comp picks received a 4th, 6th, and 7th (Mr. Irrelevant).

[Nconroe]

So, the Texans get the 4th (135th overall), 6th (211th overall) and 7th (256th) and currently at total of 11 picks. should be fun to see how that plays out.

And saw a rumor Texans might be trading Yates and Keenum, why not at this point.

[Roy P]

I would think the Ravens and Kubiak might have some interest in a Flacco back-up who already knows the offense. Maybe a 6th round pick?

[Nconroe]

Similarly Cleveland might have QB interest since Kyle Shanahan coaches there.

[Roy P]

Good point. I would take Cleveland's 6th round pick for TJ Yates.

[HPF Bob]

Optimum Scouting isn't as high on a few Aggies as some others are and that allowed me to trade down with the Falcons (for 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4) to get all of them and then basically load my shopping cart with a lot of great talent:

1-6: (from ATL) Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
2-1: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
2-5: (from ATL) Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
3-1: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida St. (he's been ranked as high as a mid-first - a real beast in the middle with questionable stamina)
3-4: (from ATL) Cyril Richardson, G, Baylor (seems like Rick Smith has been failing with 3rd round fixes to the OL but this guy was ranked as a low first before the combine. Plus, we have two holes at guard to fill without Wade Smith.)
4-1: Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-35 (comp): Jackson Jeffcoat, DE-OLB, Texas

I'm still seeing some guys I like but there's only one spot in the fifth so I packaged our Schaub pick (6-5) with our seventh (7-1) to Philadelphia for their fifth (5-22).

5-1: Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
5-22: (from PHI) Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida (He was ranked as a low first by some but he's slid since the combine and he's a runt but still worth a low fifth)
6-1: Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
6-35 (comp): Jeff Janis, WR-KR, Saginaw Valley St. (extreme speed guy)
7-41 (comp): Henry Josey, RB, Missouri

No upgrade at TE but I am okay with the two we have and a UDFA.
No upgrade at S but we added two in free agency, otherwise we've shored up seemingly everywhere.

Evans is a luxury but a comfort guy for Manziel and it will make trading Andre Johnson before his balloon payments kick in easier to swallow. With Hopkins, Posey and Martin, we ought to be stacked here. Janis is more for kick returns.

Seastrunk and Josey back up Foster. Both carried the load in college and would probably do fine as reserves.

Richardson and Matthews would make a great combo and I have hope Quessenberry or Brooks will fill the other guard spot.

Jernigan will be a load in the middle but will need frequent breathers (think Doug Smith from the Oilers) Jeffcoat gives us an edge rusher. I always thought he was at his best at UT when he was standing up even though he has DE size. When healthy, he's a size-speed mismatch. Jones also has flexibility as a LB who can be inside or outside although I'd start him inside with Cushing. You already know what I think of Davis and Roberson. Both great low-round gambles.

Then, of course, there's Johnny Football. Love him or hate him, he will keep the Texans on the front pages and either be terrific or a huge bust. Giving him some teammates to ease his transition and putting him in Houston is probably the best chance he could possibly get to be an NFL success and Fitzpatrick will be a good mentor for him. Not taking him until the second will also put a large chip on his shoulder which, if channeled properly, can be a huge edge. Supposedly, being taken in the second is what spurred Thurman Thomas to greatness and might do the same for Manziel.

[Roy P]

I applaud your efforts, but I believe the simulation is greatly flawed if you were able to select those players when you did. Evans, Manziel, and Jernigan have to be gone in the first round. But, again I like the trade down if something like that were possible.

[HPF Bob]

All the big boards have some people ranked where I wouldn't but then some players fall in the real draft and we scratch our heads why. Simulating is role playing but at least you can't manipulate them as much as people who do their own cherry-picking.

Plus, we do have the first pick in each round so it is not so absurd that the Texans will pick someone at 2-1 that has a first-round grade, someone at 3-1 that has a third-round grade, etc.

Yeah, I would be shocked to still see Jernigan at 3-1 but I had already mocked this big board enough to know I could do the Aggie hat trick which is why I did it.

You come into a draft with an outline of what you want to do but then you see guys you couldn't imagine fall to you (or see the guy you really wanted get taken ahead of you) so you have to decide whether to deviate from your plan or pass on somebody you know would be a huge get.

That's what makes simming so fun. You're never sure how you'll have to adjust on the fly but it is great practice. Plus, like everyone, there are certain guys I would be thrilled to have in Steel Blue and Battle Red that others would probably pass on.

[Roy P]

http://optimumscouting.com/draft/2013-nfl-mock-draft/mock-draft.html

I'm not certain where you saw the mock draft that you utilized. I went to the above web site and only saw the first round.

Mike Evans is off the board at #8 to Minnesota, Johnny Manziel at #26 to Cleveland.

http://optimumscouting.com/draft/static/2014-nfl-draft-big-board-january-28th-update.html

Timmy Jernigan was not listed in the first round, but according to their 'Big Board' they have him ranked #37.

Not wanting to start an argument or anything. You know I like to use my Draft Board against mocks to see how I stack up. So, if I'm on the wrong site, please post the correct site so I can take a look, please.

[HPF Bob]

No argument needed.

Here's the site I am drafting from:

http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/premium.php

I am sure they have some variability factors involved so players do not go off the board exactly as ranked. Besides, guys like Mel Kiper, Jr. routinely change their boards for no other reason than to drive more traffic. A lot of it is just a scam. However, if you'd like, you can start with the Fanspeak board they list and then re-rank them yourself if you think they are rating guys ridiculously high or low.

I prefer not to do that but if you buy the premium for $5, you can probably set up the board the way you think it should be and then simulate.

[Roy P]

Wanted to 'test' the system before paying for it. The free Mock Draft didn't allow for trading. Now that I've played with it, I may make the purchase. Cheap entertainment for a draft nerd like me. :)

I accidentally selected Mack with my first pick instead of Greg Robinson. But, just went with it to see what would happen. Can't say that I'm too upset with my results:


1 OLB KHALIL MACK BUFFALO
-Mayock has him as his top pick

33 G XAVIER SU'A-FILO UCLA
-Didn't expect him in the 2nd. Played LT and could play RT

65 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS
-Got my QB in the 3rd round. ECSTATIC!

101 TE C.J. FIEDOROWICZ IOWA
-I think he has better hands than Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and can block

135 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON
-Really impressed me at the Senior Bowl

141 RB JERICK MCKINNON GEORGIA SOUTHERN
-Super quick, decent hands to catch passes, kick returner

177 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA
-Don't understand why he doesn't get more love. Has RAC skills and finds TDs

181 G TRAI TURNER LSU
-The guy can start at LG

211 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY
-He makes tackles and has speed to go sideline to sideline.

216 CB AARON COLVIN OKLAHOMA
-Injured at Senior Bowl may have to redshirt and heal. Talented player.

256 OLB HOWARD JONES SHEPHERD
-Special teams tackling as a rookie and pass-rush specialist

[Roy P]

Okay, I paid and started trading. First, I traded down with TB and got #7 with a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th. Traded that 2nd (#6) for #15 in the 2nd and a 4th and 5th. Then traded #5 in the Third round for 3.10 and a 5th. Lots of fun, but weren't able to get a lot of My Guys and took BPA.

7 QB BLAKE BORTLES UCF
-Didn't feel bad getting my top QB after trading down

33 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD
-Love his game. Will have him play OLB

47 DE KAREEM MARTIN NORTH CAROLINA
-Has size and speed. My prototypical DE for the 3-4

65 WR DONTE MONCRIEF OLE MISS
-Call me crazy, I believe he's better than DeAndre Hopkins.

74 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON
-Think Giovanni Bernard

101 WR BRUCE ELLINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA
-My KR Specialist/Slot WR....Randall Cobb clone.

119 DT ANTHONY JOHNSON LSU
-Will play the NT for my 3-4

135 TE ARTHUR LYNCH GEORGIA
-Red Zone Tgt and blocks. Plus I love my Bulldogs. :)

141 OLB CHRISTIAN KIRKSEY IOWA
-Ferentz loves him. Will put him at ILB beside Cushing

143 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE
-Impressed me at The Senior Bowl. Paired with Lynch & Moncrief = Red Zone

152 OT JAMES HURST NORTH CAROLINA
-Noticed I needed to address the RT hole and he was the BPA

158 G DAKOTA DOZIER FURMAN
-Grabbed the BPA to play Guard

177 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NC STATE
-Can play FS too. Has size 6'2" 200 and speed 4.45 - Forty

181 CB ROSS COCKRELL DUKE
-Another 'Big CB'

211 OLB PRINCE SHEMBO NOTRE DAME
-Versatile enough to move to ILB or put hand in dirt like Brooks Reed

216 WR T.J. JONES NOTRE DAME
-Not many guys I liked left. BPA in the 7th round

256 OLB HOWARD JONES SHEPARD
-Can't get over his Combine numbers. Happy to bring him on board.

[HPF Bob]

I imagine if you trade down enough you can wind up with the entire sixth round. :D

It dawned on me that while they claim to update their own Big Board twice a week, it doesn't mean they'll ever update the other two Big Boards. I guess it depends on what type of contract they signed.

[HPF Bob]

Lots of fun, but weren't able to get a lot of My Guys

To me, that's the whole point. When you simulate with an unknown board that seems to fluctuate quite a bit, you may target guys but you don't get them as often as you'd think. The Texans have the luxury this year to have the first pick in every round and three comp picks to boot (which you cannot trade) so we can do a lot in this draft most other teams cannot and, even then, most of the guys we covet will be taken by somebody else.

BTW, Congrats on snagging Garrapolo in the 3rd.

[Roy P]

I could live with this using Waltersfootball as my bigboard and making some trades:

6 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN

37 OT JOEL BITONIO NEVADA

40 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS

65 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD

68 DE KAREEM MARTIN NORTH CAROLINA

96 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON

101 WR BRUCE ELLINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA

103 C WESTON RICHBURG COLORADO STATE

135 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON

141 CB PHILLIP GAINES RICE

177 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE

181 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NORTH CAROLINA STATE

211 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING

216 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY

256 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA

[Roy P]

The more things change....the more they stay the same.


6 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN
-My top guy and was able to garner more picks in the process

33 G XAVIER SU’A-FILO UCLA
-The O-Line should be set for whoever the QB is going to be

43 QB JIMMY GAROPPOLO EASTERN ILLINOIS
-Looks like I could have waited and gotten McCarron/Mettenberger combo late

65 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD
-Will play OLB like Vrabel

75 CB STANLEY JEAN- BAPTISTE NEBRASKA
-Decided to get a big CB

101 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON
-I know we signed Andre Brown, but I still like this kid

103 QB ZACH METTENBERGER LSU
-New addition to my draftboard. Getting a lot of hype late after Pro-Day

113 TE C.J. FIEDOROWICZ IOWA
-Wanted a TE

135 WR BRUCE ELLINGTON SOUTH CAROLINA
-My KR specialist

141 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON
-Will really be surprised if he lasts this long

153 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NORTH CAROLINA STATE
-Loading up on big CB/S Hybrids

177 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE
-Got two TEs :)

181 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY
-Had to get a ILB and this guy is great value

211 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING
-Another CB/S Hybrid

216 RB JERICK MCKINNON GEORGIA SOUTHERN
-Already drafted Sankey & Ellington, but he's too good to pass up here

256 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA
-Could be the next M. Colsten (7th round value)

[Roy P]

Okay...didn't panic and draft Garrappolo but got two QBs late. Waited for my Favorites like Murphy, Tripp, Sankey, until I couldn't wait any longer. I know we have signed FAs, but couldn't resist taking Bucannon. Very happy with my OLine and DLine.

7 OT GREG ROBINSON AUBURN

33 OT JOEL BITONIO NEVADA

47 S DEONE BUCANNON WASHINGTON STATE

65 DE TRENT MURPHY STANFORD

77 OLB JORDAN TRIPP MONTANA

101 RB BISHOP SANKEY WASHINGTON

111 QB ZACH METTENBERGER LSU

135 DE KAREEM MARTIN NORTH CAROLINA

141 QB A.J. MCCARRON ALABAMA

158 TE CROCKETT GILMORE COLORADO STATE

170 CB DONTAE JOHNSON NORTH CAROLINA STATE

177 RB JERICK MCKINNON GEORGIA SOUTHERN

181 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING

211 ILB AVERY WILLIAMSON KENTUCKY

229 DT ZACK KERR DELAWARE

256 WR KEVIN NORWOOD ALABAMA

[nunusguy]

Two Mocks and offensive line choices with the first 2 picks in each one. You are for sure gonna get that OLine fixed aren't you Roy ?

[HPF Bob]

I took Clowney at 1-1 rather than the big trade down but did work a lesser trade down later.

In this mock, Bortles and Carr went early so Bridgewater and Manziel fell. The Browns snatched Bridgewater at #26 which let Manziel fall out of the first round. Here's where I made my deal. I offered Cleveland 2-3 and 3-19 for 2-1, 4-1 and 6-5 (the Schaub pick) so I could have an extra second day choice.

I knew the Browns and Redskins would pass on a quarterback so I still got Manziel with a marginal trade down:

1-1 Jadeveon Clowney DE-OLB, S. Carolina
2-3 (from CLE) Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
3-1 Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
3-19 (from CLE) Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee
4-35 (comp) Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington
5-1 Jon Halapio, OG, Florida
6-1 Chris Davis, CB-KR, Auburn
6-35 (comp) Isaiah Lewis, SS, Michigan St.
7-1 Kerry Hyder, DE-DT, Texas Tech
7-41 (comp) Carrington Byndum, CB, Texas

Got the best player in the draft, added the QB many of the locals wanted, added an ILB to team with Cushing, a RB who can spell Foster, two new pieces for the right side of the line, a tweener for the d-line and secondary/ST help. Did all of this without sacrificing the 1-1 pick.

Incidentally, Garropolo fell to the fifth round in this mock.

[Roy P]

Yes, I would like the OLine fixed. Whoever plays QB will benefit from the investment.

Garoppolo lasted until the 5th round? I would love that. Which database did you use, the updated Fanspeak, Optimum, or Walter?

[Nconroe]

Just for discussion,

I think OG need is on left, not right. And we have two OT on IR from last year draft. But ok, OL needs fixing though general thought is OL usually take 2-3 year to develop.

Lkely only need to draft one of Mettenberger or Mccarron. Again unless you want two three year development Projects. By time develop coaches could be gone.

And for me I could see drafting one but not two RB.

I would like more DT options. We lost noth NT we had last year to FA.

[HPF Bob]

Garoppolo lasted until the 5th round? I would love that. Which database did you use, the updated Fanspeak, Optimum, or Walter?

It was the updated Fanspeak. I'm not sure the other two get updated.

Nobody knows for sure how many teams are targeting a QB in the first round and how many have lined through Manziel over height or maturity issues.

It may be disinformation but I am hearing that Carr is impressing more and Bridgewater is impressing less so a Bortles, Carr, Bridgewater, Manziel draft board is possible although I still think it is unlikely.

Still, if Manziel is still there at 2-1 and the Texans announce a trade I can only imagine riots by the Aggie faithful. But I saw it as a perfect calculated chance to get another second-day pick for a small move down, knowing the Browns (who just took Bridgewater) and the Redskins (who already have RG3) were not picking a QB so I was able to get the extra third and still get the player I would have taken anyway.

I think there is a big drop-off in ILB after Skov, Borland and Jones so I grabbed Jones while he was still there and then postponed taking a RT since there were three left that could fit the need and 15 more picks to go.

Sankey was too good a value at 4-35 and there was no CB or OG that I could justify taking instead so the rest of the draft just sort of unfolded filling holes with an eye toward special teams value.

[HPF Bob]

Just for discussion,

I think OG need is on left, not right. And we have two OT on IR from last year draft. But ok, OL needs fixing though general thought is OL usually take 2-3 year to develop.

Lkely only need to draft one of Mettenberger or Mccarron. Again unless you want two three year development Projects. By time develop coaches could be gone.

And for me I could see drafting one but not two RB.

I would like more DT options. We lost noth NT we had last year to FA.

OTs can be moved to G easier than the other way. I have Quessenberry penciled in at one of the guards spots although he is listed as an OT on some depth charts. I want one of those blot-out-the-sun RTs now that we are probably dropping the zone blocking scheme. Put that fat Brooks next to that guy and try to run behind them.

I don't think Wade Smith has signed anywhere so he might eventually come back as a cheap 1-yr contract.

How the offense develops depends on who we take at QB.

I agree a DT is a good addition. We added one in free agency but we lost two. Unless he's expected to pass rush, you can find a useful tub of goo in 5-7 rounds.

[Roy P]

There's rumors the Browns and Bags really like Carr. I'm the first to admit he has better arm strength for deep passes than Bridgewater. I think Teddy may be the one out of the four to drp into the second round.

If we don't resign Wade, I could see Quess playing LG and the Fat Brooks at RG. I'm drafting a RT and an OG to compete with those other two.

Sankey is my favorite RB, It's going to be hard to pass on him.

I'd like more DT options too. I like Kareem Martin or Will Clarke to play Antonio Smith. Not really seeing the typical NT I would draft early. I would take Caraun Reid because he can pass rush. My favorite Tub of Goo is Zack Kerr from Delaware.

[HPF Bob]

It looks like Fanspeak has updated their Walter board and I did the trade down with Atlanta. I didn't get the sweetheart offer I sometimes get (1-1 for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th) so I dealt 1-1 and 7-1 to Atlanta for 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4. Then I decided to go for more midround picks so I eventually traded 3-4 to San Francisco for 3-13 and 4-29. Then I took 6-1 and 6-5 and dealt them to Kansas City for 4-24.

That left me with the following:

1-6 (from ATL): Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
2-1 : Dee Ford, DE-OLB, Auburn
2-5 (from ATL): David Yankey, G-T, Stanford
3-1 : Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, E. Illinois
3-13 (from SF): Christian Jones, ILB, Florida St.
4-1: Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington
4-24 (from KC): E.J. Gaines, CB, Missouri
4-29 (from SF): Chris Smith, DE, Arkansas
4-35 (comp): Daniel McCullers, DT, Tennessee
5-1: Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech
6-35 (comp): Jeff Janis, WR-KR, Saginaw Valley St.
7-41 (comp): Kerry Hyder, DT, Texas Tech

12 picks that give the OL a big boost, supplies a quick pass rusher in Ford, help for Cushing in the middle, d-line bodies in Smith, McCullers and Hyder and two CBs in Gaines and Exum. Plus, we added a QB with upside in Garoppolo, a backup tailback in Sankey and a blazing fast returner in Janis.

This draft really depends on whether Garoppolo is worth the hype but this supplies the parts to solve a lot of needs in a hurry.