Let's Talk QBs in the 2014 Draft

[Keith]

Took this from the Keenum thread as I thought it was a good starting point for a new thread:

I do not like Bridgewater. He has not been awesome against poor competition and that concerns me. UH largely shut him down and that concerns me. For a lower division guy he doesn't really look the part and appears very slim built, that concerns me.

As much as I'm in favor of a new QB, I don't like Bridgewater or Mariota at all. Mariota seems like a faster Locker. He cannot pass unless he can run, which means he cannot really pass.

I am intrigued by Manziel and don't really know too much about Hundley other than he looks the part. I liked Boyd coming into the season but he was abysmal against FSU.

I don't think there is a QB that I would feel good about at #1 overall, especially since it appears I could have a guy like Boyd at #33. If we traded down or were drafting between 5-10 I would be tempted to go Manziel, but I don't think I could pass on Clowney (or possibly the UCLA DE?) if I was drafting 1 or 2.

I am just starting to look at 2014 QBs, beginning with Bridgewater. The slim build doesn't concern me. He plays at Louisville, which has had a decent record even though it's lower division, regardless of whatever lack of success he might have had against UH.

Seems he is 'clutch' from what I hear, though so were many collegiate QBs who can't hack the NFL game. As I mentioned in the other thread, I think the team needs a guy who is going to be a star at reading defenses and performing well under a blitz. Is that Teddy? I really have NO idea. Not yet. More research needed.

He does have more than adequate arm strength, and he is capable of throwing more than just a fastball, too. Early on in my reviews though, I get a little of a Leftwich vibe (not a good thing), and listening to him in an interview, I don't hear someone who seems unusually smart. Small sample size hopefully.

I definitely think there's a possibility that there could be a guy with fewer eyeball measurables than Bridgewater who could be a good pick later in the draft. But who? Any faves? Fales? McCarron? Boyd? Anyone else?

[HPF Bob]

I did some reading up on Bridgewater last night and he appears to be an accurate thrower with good zip who has some running ability but is not a "running quarterback". He's a bit small (6'3") and slender (210) for an ideal NFL quarterback and not entirely consistent either. He'll take more time to develop than a typical 1-1 quarterback and, in a normal draft year, might be an 8-15 guy instead of Top 5.

But the tools are there. The intelligence and maturity are said to be there. Louisville's offense will adapt him for the pros far easier than Oregon's (Mariota) or A&M's (Manziel), so he's the safest of the three choices.

[Keith]

Scratch Marcus Mariota. He says he is returning to Oregon for his redshirt junior season. Not a big surprise. Ought to make guys like Johnny Manziel and Derek Carr happy though.

[WMH]

Mettenbergers stock takes a hit due to ACL tear in his bad knee. Tough break for the kid. Could be had in 2nd/3rd now.

[HPF Bob]

I really hate to say this but that QB Carr out of Fresno St. is looking better and better. :eek:

[jaimeg]

I am kind of leaning towards taking a qb in the second round. Carr, or the kid from Central Florida or even Manziel may drop. Heard on espn radio this morning that the central florida (Bortles?) is clutch. Didn't they beat Louisville with a game winning drive. The scout on the radio was high on this kid.

[barrett]

I wrote a whole post about being nervous about smaller college QBs. The central florida kid was terrible against UH (200 yards, 0 TDs, 1 pick). And I think I dismiss anyone who doesn't dominate at the mid-level. Then I looked at the top 20 NFL passers and found...

Rothleisberger, Dalton, Romo, Flacco, Alex Smith, and Kaepernick.

All of them were outside of the power conferences (although TCU and Utah moved into those conferences after these guys). None are what I would dream of from a top overall pick, but if we are drafting in round 2 and came away with one of those guys it would be a good pick (and many were 2nd round picks precisely because they went to smaller schools).

Of course, David Carr was a mid tier conference guy who smoked the competition. So you never really know, no matter where they played in college. Hopefully the new HC/GM is better at guessing than I am.

[nunusguy]

I really hate to say this but that QB Carr out of Fresno St. is looking better and better. :eek:
I saw some of his game over the past weekend vs San Jose State and he impressed (as did SJSU QB David Fales), and his team is scheduled to play again Saturday night and it may be nationally televised, not sure ?
Wow, wouldn't it be a real dilemma for McNair/Texans if they decided that Carr was their top choice in next years Draft and they ending up having the opportunity to in fact choose him ?
***********
http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/12/04/3648776/dogs-need-a-special-game.html#storylink=cpy
Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr was named the Sammy Baugh Award winner and receiver Davante Adams earned the Paul Warfield Award, the Touchdown Club of Columbus announced Wednesday.
Carr has completed 388 of 552 yards for 4,462 yards and 45 touchdowns. He joins older brother and former Bulldogs star David Carr as the first brothers to both win the Baugh Award, which has honored college football's top passer since 1959.

[WMH]

I'd have no reservations about putting Carr in a Texans uni just because his last name was Carr.

IMO, the Texans ruined David's chances at becoming a decent NFL QB, as we literally gave him a scrap heap OLine to work with for the first 4 years.

If he's the dude, he's the dude, and I don't care what his last name is.

[jaimeg]

In 2004, I bellieved we would win a super bowl with Carr at the helm. I guess that dream can still come true.

[nunusguy]

In 2004, I bellieved we would win a super bowl with Carr at the helm. I guess that dream can still come true.
Second chances in life as the saying goes, so maybe Bob McNair may end up thinking just that with about another Carr from Fresno State and his dream to win a SB ?
I have no recollection about reports re the owner's relationship with the Carr family after David's departure from the local scene, but I'm guessing it wasn't entirely amicable ?

[HPF Bob]

I have no recollection about reports re the owner's relationship with the Carr family after David's departure from the local scene, but I'm guessing it wasn't entirely amicable ?

Can't tell you but I remember Mrs. Carr had some problems with the way fans treated her and her husband, something Mrs. Schaub now probably shares.

[barrett]

Here's a pretty special TD pass. Not a great QB decision but some pretty ridiculous arm strength.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/yahoo-sports-minute/teddy-bridgewater-throws-incredible-touchdown-pass-damian-copeland-101356745.html?vp=1

[popanot]

Can't tell you but I remember Mrs. Carr had some problems with the way fans treated her and her husband, something Mrs. Schaub now probably shares.The only incident I can recall, and I don't know if it is true or not, is when someone reportedly poured a beer (and I'm sure some expletives) on Carr's wife during a game. I think it was Carr's last year here when it happened. The family may have a problem with the fans, but I don't recall anything being reported as to there being animosity between Carr and McNair when he left. There shouldn't have been - at least from Carr's perspective. McNair paid him a ton of money and graciously exercised his contract option when he probably shouldn't have.

[Warren]

Saturday, Dec. 21
2:30 pm, ABC
Derek Carr (Sr.), Fresno St. vs. USC

Saturday, Dec. 28
5:45 pm, ESPN
Teddy Bridgewater (Jr.), Louisville vs. Miami

Monday, Dec. 30
5:45 pm, ESPN
Marcus Mariota (So., says he's not coming out but nothing's final until the deadline passes), Oregon vs. Texas

Tuesday, Dec. 31
1:00 pm, CBS
Brett Hundley (So.), UCLA vs. Virginia Tech

7:00 pm, ESPN
Johnny Manziel (So.), Texas A&M vs. Duke

Wednesday, Jan. 1
7:30 pm, ESPN
Blake Bortles (Jr.), Central Florida vs. Baylor

Thursday, Jan. 2
7:30 pm, ESPN
A.J. McCarron (Sr.), Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Friday, Jan. 3
7:30 pm, ESPN
Tajh Boyd (Sr.), Clemson vs. Ohio St.

[nunusguy]

So thanks for the schedule Warren, that's gonna come in real handy.
So I did watch part of the Fresno-USC game yesterday and David's little brother did not impress at all. OK, so I saw him in some of the San Jose State game
a couple weeks ago, and he was much better then than yesterdays effort.
Next up is Bridgewater, and he's still the top-rated QB prospect so I'm really looking forward to his Bowl game as I've not seen him at all yet.

[Keith]

Got an armchair QB look at Bridgewater in his bowl game yesterday. Impressive 4-TD performance in a blowout win.

What struck me about him in this game is how he seemed like an ideal WCO QB, which is ironic because he would probably fit Kubiak's offense quite well. The short- and medium range accuracy is very good, and he seems to just have a lower heart rate than most under a blitz. Pocket awareness and mobility is very good. He has a low and very quick release. Willing to take what the defense gives him. Has nice touch on his passes, though his deep balls seem to be 50/50s...

The thought of him having Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to catch his passes is intriguing.

As I mentioned above, I want a QB adept at reading defenses and performing well under a blitz. Teddy did that in this bowl game.

He's a bit small (6'3") and slender (210) for an ideal NFL quarterback I think we'll hear about his measurables being a key negative in the pre-draft talk. For anyone wanting to believe this line of thinking, go do an image search on Tom Brady at his NFL Combine. I'm not concerned.

Word was that GM Rick Smith was in Orlando watching this game live.

[Warren]

I came away impressed as well. Very nice arm, accuracy, and release -- seemingly with a flick of the wrist he zipped the ball around the field, right where it needed to be. While he's obviously very mobile, he did more moving around to keep the pass play alive than taking off down the field. That should help him stay healthy in the NFL, especially until he beefs up some.

[chuck]

I thought he looked great but as I have repeatedly said I am the worst person in the world at knowing how a college quarterback's skills will translate in the NFL.

I also suck at gift wrapping beyond anything you can possible imagine.

[popanot]

Luck/RG3 vs. Bridgewater... Feels like we're getting the K-Mart blue light special with our #1 overall. He's OK, but #1 overall? I think I'd rather take my chances someone decent will be there at our #2 or #3. This kid, Brent Smith, from Wyoming seems intriguing as a mid-to-late round pick.

[barrett]

Luck/RG3 vs. Bridgewater... Feels like we're getting the K-Mart blue light special with our #1 overall. He's OK, but #1 overall? I think I'd rather take my chances someone decent will be there at our #2 or #3. This kid, Brent Smith, from Wyoming seems intriguing as a mid-to-late round pick.

I'd rather not draft a QB than take someone "decent" in the 2nd or 3rd round. You don't win with decent QBs. If we are in love with some guy with a 3rd round grade and like him more than Bridgewater, then wait and draft him at the top of the 3rd (maybe he's Russell Wilson after all). Or if we don't like the 1st round options pass on drafting a QB altogether.

But why tie ourselves to a decent young QB that stops us from acquiring a great young QB for the next 2-3 years. If the talent at QB is bad in this draft, just sign a vet and delay the young gun for a year. Don't draft an Andy Dalton in the 2nd round, hoping he can edvelop into 2011 Matt Schaub so we can get bounced in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs again.

Draft the young QB you are convinced will be great or don't draft one at all.

I for one hope that last night made someone in the NFL fall in love with Teddy enough to trade up for him.

[chuck]

I will simply add that Andy Dalton is somehow, some way 11-5. Dalton is not terrible but he is nowhere near good.

Actually, sometimes he is terrible.

[popanot]

I'd rather not draft a QB than take someone "decent" in the 2nd or 3rd round. You don't win with decent QBs.

Draft the young QB you are convinced will be great or don't draft one at all.By using the term "decent" I didn't mean "settle" for some schlep. I'm saying if Bridgewater isn't worth the first pick and someone else is (Clowney, perhaps), then use it on that player rather than reach at QB. Furthermore, I'm sure a lot of people considered Russell Wilson a "decent" prospect last year. Same with Foles and others... I'm merely saying use the pick wisely and not just draft a QB #1 overall just because you need a QB. If they find Bridgewater is head and shoulders above the other prospects and he's the guy, then so be it. Personally, I like Bridgewater. However, I also like some of the other QB prospects and think at least 2 or 3 of them will be really good NFL QBs.

[popanot]

I will simply add that Andy Dalton is somehow, some way 11-5. Dalton is not terrible but he is nowhere near good.

Actually, sometimes he is terrible.Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl last year for crying out loud. Proof you don't have to reach at QB with your #1 overall.

[barrett]

Joe Flacco won the Super Bowl last year for crying out loud. Proof you don't have to reach at QB with your #1 overall.

Joe Flacco was a first round pick.

[nunusguy]

I'm merely saying use the pick wisely and not just draft a QB #1 overall just because you need a QB. If they find Bridgewater is head and shoulders above the other prospects and he's the guy, then so be it.
Those are my sentiments, because I'm concerned the Texans will be under so much pressure to bring in a "promising" young QB prospect now to reinvigorate fan interest/support they might very well reach for a QB in this years Draft.

[popanot]

Joe Flacco was a first round pick.He wasn't a #1 overall. Besides, there are many great QB's that weren't first rounder's, let alone #1 overall's. Trade down if need be. Actually, I think Clowney will be the one that someone will want to trade up for.

[HPF Bob]

Those are my sentiments, because I'm concerned the Texans will be under so much pressure to bring in a "promising" young QB prospect now to reinvigorate fan interest/support they might very well reach for a QB in this years Draft.

I hope they resist the pressure to draft Manziel the way they resisted the pressure to draft Vince Young. But Rick Smith is going to get an earful from a lot of Aggies who think Johnny Football is God (just as Longhorns did with Casserly about VY).

If they don't like Bridgewater, I hope they trade down a few notches and get Matthews.

[barrett]

He wasn't a #1 overall. Besides, there are many great QB's that weren't first rounder's, let alone #1 overall's. Trade down if need be. Actually, I think Clowney will be the one that someone will want to trade up for.

A 1st round pick is still the most common way to get a playoff QB.

Manning - 1st overall
Brady - 6th
Dalton - top of 2nd
Luck - 1st overall
Smith - 1st overall
Rivers - High 1st
Wilson - 3rd
Newton - 1st overall
Rodgers - low 1st
Foles - 3rd?
Brees - top of 2nd
Kaepernick - 2nd

So that is 6 (50%) 1st round picks, 3 2nd round picks (25%), 2 3rds, and a 6th. Now some of those 1st and 2nd round picks are no longer with the team that drafted them, but it still shows where the talent at QB is. It is in the top of the draft more than any other position. I would gaurantee there is not another position on those playoff rosters that has;

50% 1st round picks
75% in the first two rounds
66% in the top 35 picks
33% THE TOP OVERALL PICK


QB is the most important position and for the most part it is accurately projected from college to the NFL. This does not mean there are not misses on high picks, it means that there are fewer stars that slip past round 1 (compared to other positions). Two of the lower picks are Kaepernick and Wilson and they came out when the NFL was still slow to pick up on mobile QBs. They would be first rounders today (just look where Marriota and Manziel project). That leaves Tom Brady as the great hope of teams not willing to pay an elite price tag for the most important position in football. If we can get Brady in rounds 3-7 I am all for it.

If not I would prefer we draft a QB where the QB talent is found, in round 1 or the top of round 2. If we are not going to, sign a veteran (likely a guy who used to be a 1st rounder) and move forward.

[barrett]

If you look at Superbowl winners instead of playoff teams it gets even more apparent. 7 of the last 8 superbowls have been won by 1st round picks and the 8th was Drew Brees who was drafted near the top of round 2. It's a passing league and you have to invest your draft picks and money accordingly.

[Joshua]

IMO, there is no such thing as a reach for a QB, at least not within the 1st round; i.e., someone who was worth the 9th pick but not the 1st. If a guy can play, you can't pick him too early. The position is just that important. If he can't, well, he shouldn't be picked in the 1st round at any spot.

I think they have to decide who they think the best QB in this draft is and, assuming they don't think that even the best prospect is a longshot, they have to roll the dice with him and hope they get it right.

[Keith]

IMO, there is no such thing as a reach for a QB, at least not within the 1st round; i.e., someone who was worth the 9th pick but not the 1st. If a guy can play, you can't pick him too early. The position is just that important. If he can't, well, he shouldn't be picked in the 1st round at any spot.

I think this is a great point that is underestimated in the days of fantasy football fanatics. It takes two to trade, and there are no guarantees the QB is there x picks later. And if another team isn't trading up, then you wait 32 picks until it gets on the clock again. That is an eternity. If the Texans have a 1st round grade on a QB in April, then taking him 1.1 is the way to go.

Just hope they're honest about their grades internally.

As for QBs... Oregon game on later today...

[barrett]

I totally agree and think it is doubly true with the current rookie salary scale.

If Houston has a favorite QB he should be the pick. If there is no QB you want, then don't draft one period.

[nunusguy]

IMO, there is no such thing as a reach for a QB, at least not within the 1st round; i.e., someone who was worth the 9th pick but not the 1st. If a guy can play, you can't pick him too early. The position is just that important. If he can't, well, he shouldn't be picked in the 1st round at any spot.

Sure you can. For example if you have the 1st overall, but have another team setting on the 5th overall willing to give you that pick, their second round pick, and their 1st rounder for next year you'd be foolish not to strongly consider making that deal if you think your QB prospect wouldn't be picked any higher than 9th overall. Of course that's all very hypothetical, but Draft day situations like that happen every year.

[Joshua]

Sure you can. For example if you have the 1st overall, but have another team setting on the 5th overall willing to give you that pick, their second round pick, and their 1st rounder for next year you'd be foolish not to strongly consider making that deal if you think your QB prospect wouldn't be picked any higher than 9th overall. Of course that's all very hypothetical, but Draft day situations like that happen every year.

But that's not a question of reaching for someone too early. That's getting the guy you wanted all along while being able to trade back and pick up some additional picks in the process. Of course no one disputes this would be a good outcome.

When people talk about reaching, they are talking about taking a guy X number of picks too early because of the purported value. My point is I can't conceive of a scenario where a QB would be "good value" at No. 5 but not at No 1. At either pick, the player only justifies his draft position if he turns out to be a good/great QB. I think this pretty much holds for the entire 1st round. If you take a QB in the 1st round, you think he's a potential franchise guy. If he turns out to be a franchise guy, he would have been worth the No. 1 pick. If he doesn't, he wasn't worth using a 1st rounder on no matter where he was taken.

[nunusguy]

But that's not a question of reaching for someone too early. That's getting the guy you wanted all along while being able to trade back and pick up some additional picks in the process. Of course no one disputes this would be a good outcome.

When people talk about reaching, they are talking about taking a guy X number of picks too early because of the purported value. My point is I can't conceive of a scenario where a QB would be "good value" at No. 5 but not at No 1. At either pick, the player only justifies his draft position if he turns out to be a good/great QB. I think this pretty much holds for the entire 1st round. If you take a QB in the 1st round, you think he's a potential franchise guy. If he turns out to be a franchise guy, he would have been worth the No. 1 pick. If he doesn't, he wasn't worth using a 1st rounder on no matter where he was taken.
I presented a very hypothetical situation where a team could have it's cake and eat it too, that's all.

[barrett]

I presented a very hypothetical situation where a team could have it's cake and eat it too, that's all.

In your hypothetical it may look like a guy is slotted at 9, but all it takes is one draft trade in the intervening 4 picks and you end up without the QB you wanted. Now if your hypothetical is not only presenting a godfather trade down package, but also the gaurantee that the player we desired will still be there at 5, then I would absolutely hypothetically pull the hypothetical trigger (hypothetically speaking of course).

But even with an awesome offer like that we still would have no idea if the number 9 prospect will be there at #5.

[Joshua]

I presented a very hypothetical situation where a team could have it's cake and eat it too, that's all.

Sure. But this hypo requires us to identify the best QB in the draft while everyone else in the league doesn't recognize that he's the best (why else would he be around in the middle of the first round?). Then, after outwitting the league in general, we have to outwit a specific team and convince them to make a godfather trade, presumably to move up to take some other QB other than the one we're targeting because no one makes that kind of trade for anyone but a QB. That's a whole lot to assume. I mean, if you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly. Just hypothesize us getting a Tom Brady in the 6th round.

[Keith]

The arguments for waiting to get a QB later in the draft (look! plenty of examples!! Brady was a 6th! Foles was a 3rd!) have a lot to do with the flaws of the modern CYA scouting process, namely, guys (incl the GM) won't stand on the table for someone who doesn't pass an eyeball test in the first round.

They have to have all the PHYSICAL tangibles to go with the perceived intangibles. Sometimes, these unicorns truly appear (Elway, Luck, etc.). Oftentimes, great prospects slip because they aren't Adonis in gym shorts. That doesn't mean that if the right QB is there where he is graded (say Round 1), you pass if he isn't a unicorn. Hopefully if there is a Brady or a Wilson in this draft, the Texans recognize it and take him in round 1. If a Brady was in the 2014 draft, would you wait until the 6th round to draft him? Of course not.

On a different subject, I wish I could evaluate Mariota, but this gimmicky Ducks offense is making it quite hard. I could care less if he runs wild over the Longhorns; that's not happening in the NFL over the course of a full NFL season. Running QBs get hurt. Mariota has more going for him though beyond his legs... hopefully I'll see more of it later. Just watched him make a great move in the pocket to elude a rusher and find a receiver on the sideline in the 3rd Q... that's impressive. Need to see more of that.

[chuck]

Yes, it's impossible for me to tell if Mariota is any good. It's annoying as hell.

[Keith]

Yes, it's impossible for me to tell if Mariota is any good. It's annoying as hell.

Not only that, it's really doing a disservice to Mariota as far as his NFL career goes. Especially as I see the kid limping around, again. He has a nice arm and seems to have a great feel for the game. Hope his college coaches don't ruin him.

Mariota has stated he's returning to Oregon for another year, but kids change their minds. Maybe he will reconsider. Hope he does.

[chuck]

He has a big arm, that's about all I could tell.

[Keith]

Looking ahead, if Bill O'Brien is indeed hired as the Texans HC, then Blake Bortles really becomes a person of interest for us. Bortles and UCF beat O'Brien's PSU in September as Bortles was 20-27 for 288 yds and 3 TDs in the game. Bortles is a junior, so he'd need to declare.

Also... UCF's HC, George O'Leary, was once O'Brien's boss at Georgia Tech (and for a long time too... '95-'01). Gotta figure O'Brien came away impressed by Bortles watching him firsthand this year AND will get the straight scoop on Bortles from O'Leary if and when he asks for it.

UCF plays Baylor on 1/1 at 7:30p on ESPN.

[nunusguy]

Yea I also watched Mariota last night and with his speed, running ability and tall, long-limbed physique my immediate impression was Samoan Vince Young.
But the passing samples were just too limited to make an informed judgement of his passing abilities, though what we saw did point towards a strong arm.
But I wish he would come out, for more than any reason to enhance the value of our 1st overall.
There does seem to be more talk in the sports media this year about the upside of these players staying in college longer, especially the QBs. I too say BS,
a kid would be best advised to strike when the iron is hot.

[chuck]

The hype is wearying and it pains me to say it but I think that with some coaching and some maturity Manziel could be a very successful NFL quarterback.

I could see Manziel translating to the NFL much more clearly than I could Mariota.

[WMH]

Not surprising, but official.
@McMurphyESPN: Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has decided to enter NFL Draft source told @ESPN

[barrett]

The hype is wearying and it pains me to say it but I think that with some coaching and some maturity Manziel could be a very successful NFL quarterback.

I could see Manziel translating to the NFL much more clearly than I could Mariota.

I agree. Of all the running guys in college football, he is miles ahead as a passer. He reminds me a lot of Russell Wilson if Russell Wilson was obnoxious off the field instead of a perfect team leader (and he is a little faster and probably more talented than Wilson).

[popanot]

Looking ahead, if Bill O'Brien is indeed hired as the Texans HC, then Blake Bortles really becomes a person of interest for us. Bortles and UCF beat O'Brien's PSU in September as Bortles was 20-27 for 288 yds and 3 TDs in the game. Bortles is a junior, so he'd need to declare.

Also... UCF's HC, George O'Leary, was once O'Brien's boss at Georgia Tech (and for a long time too... '95-'01). Gotta figure O'Brien came away impressed by Bortles watching him firsthand this year AND will get the straight scoop on Bortles from O'Leary if and when he asks for it.

UCF plays Baylor on 1/1 at 7:30p on ESPN.Bortles also seems to match the conventional Brady, Hackenberg-type of QB O'Brien has always had in his system. I will not be shocked to see Bortles leap frog the other guys before all is said and done.

[popanot]

I think Manziel is definitely on the radar now at #1 - and he should be. You just hope his game translates to the NFL and you hope he's more Russell Wilson than Doug Flutie, but without a doubt, there's something magical about his game. He makes plays and has the arm. He'd also pack the stadium in. Of course that shouldn't be the reason you draft him, but you know it has to be factored in within the Texans front office.

[Keith]

The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.

Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.

I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.

[popanot]

The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.

Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.

I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.Totally agree with this. He wouldn't be my pick at 1.1. I think he gets consideration, though.

Note: Bortles looking good and looking bad at times. Exactly what some of the scouting reports say about him.

[barrett]

The thing that scares me about Manziel is the "magic" people bring up in his game. How he makes something of nothing, or out of a negative situation. I heard similar rhetoric about other college QBs (Keenum, VY) and it just never fully translated to the NFL game. So when evaluating Manziel or listening to other experts do it, remind yourselves that the NFL is a pocket passer's game over the long haul. Weigh the thoughts of what Manziel does in reading a D and making the throws with his very good arm. If Keenum has taught us anything, it's that performing magic on broken plays won't work ALL the time.

Shorter runners like Vick have had success in bursts, and I am sure there will be stretches where Manziel will wow us in the NFL. But the safe short guy bet is Brees because can do it out of the pocket and not rely on "magic". Wilson looks to be the next in his line.

I would not bet my 1.1 pick on Manziel unless you thought, minus all the "magic" plays, that he was still the best pocket passer in the draft. And I really, really doubt that a guy like O'Brien is going to put his eggs in the Manziel basket.

Plenty of guys in the NFL make "magic" plays consistently. Rothleisberger has made a career out of it. Rodgers just took his team to the playoffs on a magic play, and he does it regularly. Andrew Luck is getting annoyingly good at it too.

The big difference from the college to NFL is that in the NFL, 90% of those magic plays involve a QB escaping or staying alive in the pocket, and then completing a pass downfield. They rarely involve a QB escaping and then running. I have no idea which best describes Manziel as I've watched less than 2 games worth of him combined (never more than a quarter or so at a time).

The other difference is you cannot build an NFL offense on off-schedule plays. You have to be good enough on the normal plays (just like you are saying Keith), or it won't matter how good you are on the special plays. That was obviously Keenum's problem. He made the off schedule plays but couldn't make the normal ones that keep an NFL offense moving while you wait for big plays.

[Keith]

Bortles is meh (at least as a 1.1 consideration). He looks like he'll be overdrafted in the little bit I've seen of him now if he goes early in the 1st. His body type is WOW, but his game (and maybe his maturity?) needs more seasoning. I'd advise Bortles to play college one more season if he'd listen to me.

Put another way, if I was drafting now, I'd take Manziel over Bortles. In fact, put Manziel in Bortles' body, then we'd have something... as it stands though, if there is a QB to be taken in round 1, my vote today is on Teddy.

[Keith]

Here's a video of what Bill O'Brien wants in a quarterback.
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1. They have to be able to throw the ball accurately. They don't have to be the greatest athletes in the world.
2. They have to be able to make good decisions. You can judge that off the field.
3. They have to be intelligent, with a great football IQ.

[HPF Bob]

Great find. As a subset to #3, they have to be able to read the blitz. I'm not sure Keenum was up to speed in that regard. I don't know if any of the QBs coming out of college this year are particularly gifted at this but it might be a big issue regarding their final draft order.

[nunusguy]

Manziel was at his entertaining best the other night in ATL with another top notch Houdini performance, but I just don't see him taking that act to the NFL.
In the big boys league Goodell is protecting those QBs in the pocket just as a pro-lifer protects the baby in the womb, but let them wander outside the tackle box, especially if they head for the other side of the los with an intent to run the ball in earnest and the DBs and LBs still get to lay the wood to the hapless signal-callers. So ask the Packers and Aaron Rogers how that strategy is working out ? That leaves us with Johnny Football's arm, which is just mediocre when you get right down to it.

[Keith]

MMQB article today on Teddy:
“Wait until [teams] talk to him and get him up on the blackboard,” said an NFL personnel executive who has known Bridgewater since ninth grade. “He lives and breathes football. Always has. Teams are going to fall in love with him.” ...

Bridgewater graduated high school early and enrolled at Louisville in the spring to position himself to win the starting job as a freshman. ...

“Most of these kids in college, the coordinator calls it from the press box and then there’s a signal system once the defense declares. The quarterback never gets developed, never gets taught. Teddy’s been taught from day one that I want him to be the coordinator at the line of scrimmage because he can be far better than me. And he can put the ball wherever he thinks is right.” ...

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/02/teddy-bridgewater-2014-nfl-draft/

Sounds like a lock for what O'Brien is looking for in at QB.

[Nconroe]

Great find. As a subset to #3, they have to be able to read the blitz. I'm not sure Keenum was up to speed in that regard. I don't know if any of the QBs coming out of college this year are particularly gifted at this but it might be a big issue regarding their final draft order.

So that is why Rogers and Rothlesberger got sacked more than any other QB's?

[barrett]

So that is why Rogers and Rothlesberger got sacked more than any other QB's?

They hold onto the ball. Rodgers in particular has been accused of taking sacks to avoid throwing it away to protect his completion percentage. When you think you can escape and make a play you don't throw it away when you should. Mike Vick has always been sacked more per dropback than anyone (and fumbled way more). If the NFL counted sacks as negative rushing yards like they should, we would have a better idea of what running QBs actually contribute.

[nunusguy]

Just watched most of my recording of the UCF-Baylor bowl game and I've got some advise for Blake Bortles - boy, better stay in college a bit longer and maybe develope some accuracy throwing the pigskin.

[nunusguy]

Put another way, if I was drafting now, I'd take Manziel over Bortles. In fact, put Manziel in Bortles' body, then we'd have something... as it stands though, if there is a QB to be taken in round 1, my vote today is on Teddy.
Do we really want the "Miley" Manziel act in Reliant ? That's too much drama for me and not enough NFL calibre talent. And from what I saw of Bortles the other night, guy can't hit the broad side of a barn from 5-10 yards half the time he throws the ball. If we just have to take a QB with the top pick, I'd also prefer Teddy Texan. But I don't want to go that way with our first overall pick.

[popanot]

Just covers the top QB prospects, but great analysis on rotoworld:

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/45952/349/2014s-quarterback-conundrum

[chuck]

Derek Carr is the complete opposite, throwing 33% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage...

Why am I not surprised? I wonder how often he runs out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage.

[popanot]

Why am I not surprised? I wonder how often he runs out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage.LOL! I think it's safe to say the younger Carr will not be a Texan.

[barrett]

Bridgewater comes off looking great on every level in those stats.

Manziel looks great considering these are stats that measure only passing and that is where he is most questioned. It is also interesting to note that Manziel was a better passer against the SEC than Bortles was against the AAC (and that does not even take into consideration mobility).

Carr looks bad in almost every metric. There is a significant difference between him and even the 3rd best guy they measured.

I think these stats would be far more valuable if they had done them in years past (or went back now), and could show the correlation (or lack thereofI) between these stats and future NFL success. For instance, did Vince Young's high completion percentage come with a crazy amount of passes shorter than 10 yards? Did Blaine Gabbert in a spread offense look good in these stats? Could Andrew Luck's success be foretold by what he did against the blitz? Give me 10 years of history to compare to so I know the value of what I'm looking at.

[nunusguy]

Interesting numbers, but here's my question: how much do they need to be handicapped for the SEC defenses faced by one QB vs the non-SEC guys competition ?

[popanot]

I think these stats would be far more valuable if they had done them in years past (or went back now), and could show the correlation (or lack thereofI) between these stats and future NFL success. For instance, did Vince Young's high completion percentage come with a crazy amount of passes shorter than 10 yards? Did Blaine Gabbert in a spread offense look good in these stats? Could Andrew Luck's success be foretold by what he did against the blitz? Give me 10 years of history to compare to so I know the value of what I'm looking at.Good point. I tweeted the guy asking if he could broaden the timeframe and add some QB samples from the past. Doubt he'll do it, but it sure would be interesting to see. Heck, I'd like to see the 2014 prospect stats vs. recent guys like Luck/Russell (good) and Gabbert/Ponder (bad).

[popanot]

More comparison stats (might need a Twitter account to see this...):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdpBVjsCAAACtOs.png:large

[Nconroe]

This article talks about two QB , Matthews and Garrapolo, who will be in East-West Shrine game this weekend.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24408550/shrine-game-monday-practice-report

[Keith]

Wade told the Texans to take Manziel during his HC interview.

And at the end of the season when he met with McNair and his brother Cal, the team's chief operating officer, he let them know that Manziel was their best option.

That's what Phillips told "In the Loop with Nick and Lopez" on SportsRadio 610 (via CBS Houston).

“When I did the interview with the McNairs, I told them they ought to take Johnny Football," Phillips said on the show.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/former-houston-coach-wade-phillips-told-texans-brass-202309229--nfl.html

Of course, the Texans chose to hire someone else to be their next HC...