Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[Keith]

Anyone else still think Keenum is anything more than a career backup?

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.

[WMH]

Anyone else still think Keenum is anything more than a career backup?

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.

Agree with that. He's regressing. Caught people off guard, now they're caught up.

Time to blow it all up, including the GM.

[HPF Bob]

I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet. He was off-target more today than the past four games but there were also passes I'd expect NFL receivers to catch, particularly on that final drive.

[Arky]

I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet. He was off-target more today than the past four games but there were also passes I'd expect NFL receivers to catch, particularly on that final drive.

Eheh. You mean a rookie had a couple of bad games? Hell, they gave KJ 2 years to figure it out - that's what being a first rounder buys you - plenty of OJT....

Ya, I'm not giving up on him, yet. I want to see if he continues to regress or can turn it around before the year is out. Everyone should admit he's in a tough situation.... The coach is probably going to get fired and I'm not sure he's behind him 100%, O-line sucks, receivers can't catch. He's got a QB coach, an OC and Head Coach all "working him".....

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time.... QB's have bad days (duh)....Look around the league - all QB's have bad performances, the really good and experienced ones keep the stink to a minimum...

They should keep Keenum in the rest of year just for the fact he's not a big INT guy (today's INT really shouldn't count, but it does). If memory serves, he was that way in college, too - low INT's... If someone wants to discuss his "almost INT's", well, just like a close team loss, a close INT doesn't count....

[chuck]

I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet.

He's got a poor line and no running game. He may very well be what we're seeing but I think he's better than this. I hope he is, anyway. If there's not a slam dunk QB sitting there when the Texans draft I want them to go pass rush like they should have done in their first draft. I don't want another Carr (possibly literally) to set the team back another decade.

[barrett]

Eheh. You mean a rookie had a couple of bad games? Hell, they gave KJ 2 years to figure it out - that's what being a first rounder buys you - plenty of OJT....

Ya, I'm not giving up on him, yet. I want to see if he continues to regress or can turn it around before the year is out. Everyone should admit he's in a tough situation.... The coach is probably going to get fired and I'm not sure he's behind him 100%, O-line sucks, receivers can't catch. He's got a QB coach, an OC and Head Coach all "working him".....

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time.... QB's have bad days (duh)....Look around the league - all QB's have bad performances, the really good and experienced ones keep the stink to a minimum...

They should keep Keenum in the rest of year just for the fact he's not a big INT guy (today's INT really shouldn't count, but it does). If memory serves, he was that way in college, too - low INT's... If someone wants to discuss his "almost INT's", well, just like a close team loss, a close INT doesn't count....

So "almost" INTs don't count where he throws it right to the other team, but actual INTs don't count either if they are the WRs fault? Can't really have it both ways.

I think he has played ok considering circumstances. But we are 0-5 when he starts. We score less than 20 a game when he starts (near the league bottom). We average around 5 points per 2nd half when he plays. And all of these stats are declining (except w/l which can't get worse).

I appreciate the effort, the fun, and the hope he's brought after Schaub threw up all over this season, but nothing about his performance says pass on a QB you like. I think you draft like he doesn't exist. That doesn't mean force a QB, but don't pass on one because you've got a guy who can be a top 20 NFL QB under the right circumstances.

[WMH]

1st, he's not a rookie.
He's consistently gotten worse since his first game, and has yet to have a good 2nd half.
The kids got heart and desire, but is limited on tools. I hope he sticks in the league for a long time, just don't care to have him as my QB with so many other options available that could actually move us forward.

[Arky]

So "almost" INTs don't count where he throws it right to the other team, but actual INTs don't count either if they are the WRs fault? Can't really have it both ways.

I think he has played ok considering circumstances. But we are 0-5 when he starts. We score less than 20 a game when he starts (near the league bottom). We average around 5 points per 2nd half when he plays. And all of these stats are declining (except w/l which can't get worse).

No, what I'm referring to is the Case critics who seem to count his "almost INT's". When a heavy-fisted linebacker drops an INT, it really doesn't count as an INT but the Case critics put a check mark in the negative column ("dude, he almost threw two INT's last game"). When one of his receivers bobbles the ball and the other team INT's, yes, that counts on his record as an INT (as opposed to an "almost INT"). I'm not having it both ways.

Compare to his 0-5 record (0-4.5 actually, Schaub gets some "credit" for Oakland), every one of those games was a close loss. The Texans were in a position to have won every one of those games. But nobody made a play in crunch time and Keenum is not immune here. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand-grenades and "almost INT's" with the Case critics..... Got it? :)


I appreciate the effort, the fun, and the hope he's brought after Schaub threw up all over this season, but nothing about his performance says pass on a QB you like. I think you draft like he doesn't exist. That doesn't mean force a QB, but don't pass on one because you've got a guy who can be a top 20 NFL QB under the right circumstances.

I think Keenum is just about the only interesting thing going on with the Texans the rest of the way. I'll probably tune in just to see how he does..... Him and Watt.... Watt is worth the price of admission.....

[popanot]

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

[barrett]

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

The truth is that only Manziel is even intriguing to me out of that group. I watched Bridgewater look bad against a UH defense that gave up about 700 yards to BYU and has like 2 upperclassmen on the 2 deep. Mariota cannot pass unless he can run which means he cannot pass. Hundley I know almost nothing about except that he looks the part.

[nunusguy]

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.
I know very little about the QBs who might be available in the upcoming Draft other than some of their names ? Have not seen a single one play as I don't watch that much college ball. Another Carr in Houston seems intriguing to say the least ? What known similarities and differences does he have with David, who was certainly not without talent but was also notoriously lazy ?
One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ?

[Joshua]

One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ?

These are my thoughts exactly. The QB position is more valuable than ever and your odds of ultimate success without a top flight QB are exceedingly slim.

[HPF Bob]

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

[cadams]

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

only magic if you get it right, but better chance of getting it right if you take the best prospect out of the group

[Keith]

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time....
I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.


How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.It's not, and taking Clowney or Matthews may be a good move, especially since the round 1 cap hits are easier on teams now, but a couple things... your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

So what this list tells me is that most playoff teams DO need a quality QB, and quality is typically found higher in the draft than later. Are there exceptions? Of course. But Brady's and Romo's are far from the norm, and I don't count Keenum as being in that class.

With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.

[popanot]

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

[barrett]

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

How does that data compare to the number of teams who have a QB drafted in the 2nd round who is still with them and leading them to the playoffs? How about the 3rd round? I would bet there are more teams with 1st round drafted QBs in the playoffs every year than 2nd round drafted QBs every year. But of course rounds 2-7 plus FA and Trade gets more QBs than just round 1 by itself.

How many playoff teams have RTs they drafted in the 1st round? (I bet none)

DEs they drafted in the first round? (I bet just as many as QB)

You are manipulating data to fit a pre-determined opinion (you don't want a 1st round QB).

Actual analysis says 3 teams drafted their QB in round 1, 1 team in round 2, 1 team in round 3, 1 team in round 6, and 1 UDFA. 2 others signed FAs, and 2 traded for theirs. This means the most likely way to get a playoff QB is to draft one in the 1st round (Luck, Stafford, Newton).

But remove the original team caveat and you get this;

Manning, Luck, Stafford, Newton, Palmer, and Alex Smith were not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks. That means half of this year's playoff QBs were #1 overall picks.

Does any of this mean we MUST go QB. Absolutely not. It just means Bob's stats were misleading and I can mislead with stats just as easily if I so desired.

[barrett]

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

[popanot]

As for Keenum, I agree with most here in that he is not the answer and in no way should he be a factor in us drafting a QB. I don't care who is here next year from our current roster, they MUST draft a QB in the 1rst or 2nd RD.

[popanot]

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).I'm not dismissing anything as far as cosmic jokes when it comes to this sports town. :p

[Arky]

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.


I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).



I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday... :rolleyes:

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....


I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.


Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance. :)

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

[WMH]

Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

[Arky]

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

Swing and miss is very possible. How long does a swing and miss take? Geno Smith is more than likely going to waste 2 or 3 years of the Jets time....

[WMH]

Swing and miss is very possible. How long does a swing and miss take? Geno Smith is more than likely going to waste 2 or 3 years of the Jets time....

Case by case basis.
Rule of thumb (or my wild a$$ guesses)
1st & 2nd rders. 2-3 years sounds about right.
3rd & 4th rders - 1-2 years.
4th+ from when they get to play - 1 year

Not saying I agree with that, just what I have seen thru the years with just about all franchises.

[barrett]

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).



The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday... :rolleyes:

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....



Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance. :)

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.

Referring to the thread title, I think he is more than a career backup and could have a 2009-2011 pre-injury Matt Schaub ceiling under the right circumstances (top 8-16 starting QB).

[Arky]

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.



Actually, I'll do whatever the hell I want, barrett. :) Just include me in the whiny, complaining, venting fan category if it makes you feel better....

[barrett]

Actually, I'll do whatever the hell I want, barrett. :) Just include me in the whiny, complaining, venting fan category if it makes you feel better....

You can say all you want as often as you want (I know I do). You simply won't be balancing anything.

[Arky]

You can say all you want as often as you want (I know I do). You simply won't be balancing anything.

Maybe not for this forum's consciousness. But I'll feel a lot better. :)

I think there's many people like me that hit all the Texan forums. It's hard not to be affected by some of the predominate chatter....

[Keith]

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).
Well, Bob McNair is still here. And his minority owners. I don't know for sure, but I can imagine the feeling is mutual that the Carr's and the Texans prefer to avoid each other outside of meaningless pleasantries exchanged. I've been fearing lil' Carr on the draft board since I started a thread (http://www.inthebullseye.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1680) in September. It would not surprise me at all if lil' Carr makes a big move up general scouts' boards between now and April. David wasn't much more of a 2nd or 3rd round pick early into his final season at Fresno, too.

This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like.... Blame Kubiak. No argument.

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....I used dangerous in the sense that making long-term decisions based on prorated stats is beyond risky. Calling him a career backup may sound like me doing the same, but all I can say is that stats (prorated or not) have little to do with my opinion on this... I'm letting my eyeballs drive my thinking here. That split stat on completion % is available on ESPN, Yahoo, etc... anywhere split stats are posted.


QB development can take years.Agreed. I've written here numerous times about how QB's in Kubiak's system really take three years to pick it up. So now Case is somewhere in between year 1 and year 2. Problem is Kubiak is presumably gone after the season, and a new HC is probably not going ignore a 1st round QB prospect in favor of Keenum. Keeping Keenum here where he is loved by the locals would be a tough way to bring along a new rookie QB as well.

[Arky]

............... I've written here numerous times about how QB's in Kubiak's system really take three years to pick it up. So now Case is somewhere in between year 1 and year 2. Problem is Kubiak is presumably gone after the season, and a new HC is probably not going ignore a 1st round QB prospect in favor of Keenum. Keeping Keenum here where he is loved by the locals would be a tough way to bring along a new rookie QB as well.

Well, if he wants to stick around in Houston, he needs to start showing progress, pronto. His play in his first 3 losses (KC, Colts, Cards) was more than acceptable, IMO. Against the Raiders and Jags, not so much. I saw a stat in the Chron today.... Avg margin of defeat in Keenum's 5 losses = 3.8 pts. Avg margin of defeat in the previous 4 losses (Schaub) = 20 pts.

Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, the New England and the Denver defenses might be too smart for him at this stage so it will be interesting how he does in those games. Seeing the Jags and Colts a second time - these are less scarier and will be chances to show that he's learning. The Titans defense is top 12 and will be another good test.

As mentioned, if he wants to survive a possible/probable regime change in Houston, it's up to him. By all accounts, he's supposed to be a quick study. An incoming coach may want to draft a QB, but keep Keenum around for competition and continuity.... Don't know about you, but if I was an incoming coach and asked to pick one of Schaub/Yates/Keenum, I'm taking Keenum....

[HPF Bob]

your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

By design. The premise (as I see it) is that we MUST draft a QB for next year in the first round. Denver, KC and Arizona didn't do that even though they got, admittedly, 1-1 quarterbacks. They found other ways to get one.



With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.

And what if it is Sumlin or Briles - two coaches who already have a relationship with Keenum and might want to develop him further?

[HPF Bob]

Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

Just don't give him #8. We've had problems with QBs who wear that number. :D

[Keith]

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

[cadams]

Bumping this.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

as did i, but 32 teams also didn't pass on newton for 7 consecutive rounds

[barrett]

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

I do not like Bridgewater. He has not been awesome against poor competition and that concerns me. UH largely shut him down and that concerns me. For a lower division guy he doesn't really look the part and appears very slim built, that concerns me.

As much as I'm in favor of a new QB, I don't like Bridgewater or Mariota at all. Mariota seems like a faster Locker. He cannot pass unless he can run, which means he cannot really pass.

I am intrigued by Manziel and don't really know too much about Hundley other than he looks the part. I liked Boyd coming into the season but he was abysmal against FSU.

I don't think there is a QB that I would feel good about at #1 overall, especially since it appears I could have a guy like Boyd at #33. If we traded down or were drafting between 5-10 I would be tempted to go Manziel, but I don't think I could pass on Clowney (or possibly the UCLA DE?) if I was drafting 1 or 2.

If a new coach had the confidence to keep Keenum as a short term option because we went QB in round 2 and didn't want to rush a guy like Boyd onto the field I would not complain. But a new coach would need a pretty big pair to have the hometown hero to be measured up against his new draft pick.

Plus if I was Keenum I think I'd want to be somewhere that didn't have the QB of the future on the roster yet (a backup wherever Kubs or a shanahan lands perhaps?).

[HPF Bob]

Keenum is currently 19th in NFL QB rating (86.1) which is better than Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, RG3, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck among others. He is next to last, however, among qualifiers in completion percentage (54.2%). He is 10th in yards per attempt (7.54) despite all the incompletes. Philly's Nick Foles has an ungodly 125.2 QB rating, best in the NFL and 12 points higher than Peyton Mannings who is second.

ESPN's Total QBR ranks Keenum 30th but still higher than Eli Manning and Matt Schaub.

[Keith]

The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.

That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss?

Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for.

[barrett]

The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.

That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss?

Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for.

Or look at Russel Wilson in the game currently airing. They talked about how he loved being blitzed. And then he beat an 8 man all out blitz with a downfield throw that came about 1 second after the snap. He didn't wait for the guy to be open (or even know if he was). He made the correct pre-snap read and trusted it. Keenum did this once in the Jacksonville game and had a nice conversion because of it. But in general, he is extremely slow to make decisions with the ball. The timing throws come out late, and against the blitz he thinks escape first rather than get the ball out.

It is unfair to compare Keenum to Brady and Manning, but Wilson is younger than Keenum. Keenum is already 25 years old (almost 26). This is not a fresh faced rookie. He had 6 years at UH and now almost 2 full years in this system. He is behind only in terms of NFL reps. I would not expect the same sort of learning curve as with a 22 year old rookie who had 6 starts.

[Arky]

Roger Staubach had Navy commitments (or something like that) and didn't make it to the NFL until age 27. He didn't get cranked up till age 29 and then had a nice run all the way till age 37. Age schmage.... not really worth nit-picking over. Bigger factors are can he play, can he pass worth a damn, does he show the ability to pick up on things fairly quick? If he (Keenum) answers these with "yeses" by the end of the year, got to keep him around.

--------------------------------------

Ya know, Andrew Luck is in his second year and not exactly setting the world on fire......Statistically, he's Joe Average..... The "next Peyton Manning" has more work to do.... However, I think most people agree that watching him play, one can see he has a very good "toolkit"....

---------------------------------------

Drafting a QB is fine by me but just be prepared to go through the same thing (nit picking, pros and cons, lovers/haters etc.) we are going through with Keenum when he arrives. Someone in another forum I read made the point that a top 5 drafted QB is too big of an investment to leave sitting on the bench..... This QB will more or less be handed the keys sooner rather than later.....

-------------------------------------

With Keenum, I see a Texas boy that could probably tell you a few stories about those Friday Night Lights (and Saturday Night Lights for that matter). Rightly or wrongly, I (still) see some good things lurking..... I (still) see upside.... MNF announcers speaking about Wilson and Brees made it a point to say a QB's height doesn't mean what it used to. Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, Keenum is going to be given a mostly 10 game audition. For an undrafted QB and despite the circumstances, that's all one can ask for......

[HPF Bob]

I see good and bad with Keenum and the bad is mostly fixable with a full camp of practicing with the regulars instead of getting the table scrap reps. Kubiak says Keenum is a great film study and picks up knowledge rather fast.

Right now, he's looking downfield while Schaub was looking to dump pass. If there are shorter routes or designed screens, he isn't finding them.

The New England game was actually the first one for which I could fairly evaluate Keenum because the OL gave him time to throw and the running game worked well enough that the Patriots had to respect it, making play action more effective.

He's only had three picks so far and two of them were because he threw while getting hit. But he's not really accurate and his receivers don't look comfortable trying to catch him. That comes with timing and timing comes from a full off-season throwing hundreds of passes to the receivers where they run the exact same route to the exact same spot with the ball arriving at the exact proper time. You can't really get that down during the regular season. You have to work at that all off-season.

I think there's about a 40% chance of Keenum being a solid NFL quarterback if he's allowed to develop but I'm doubting he'll get that chance in Houston.

[nunusguy]

Ya know, Andrew Luck is in his second year and not exactly setting the world on fire......Statistically, he's Joe Average..... The "next Peyton Manning" has more work to do.... However, I think most people agree that watching him play, one can see he has a very good "toolkit"....

I'd sure like to have Luck on the Texans, but I honestly think I'd rather have Wilson even at the same money as Luck. A couple weeks ago in the Seahawks game vs St Louis, Wilson made a play that was utterly amazing. He flipped a practically perfect pass into the EZ for a TD while on a dead sprint from about 30 yards out. Underhanded ! The kid is truly an amazing athletic talent and has all of the intangibles to go along with it !

[Nconroe]

If we lose Thursday do we take a look at TJ Yates?

[chuck]

If we lose Thursday do we take a look at TJ Yates?

See if he can kick? Sure, why not?

[barrett]

If we lose Thursday do we take a look at TJ Yates?

What would you be looking at him for?

[Keith]

Another view from the outside on Keenum's potential (part of an article on 'mystery QBs' like McGloin and Tolzien for comparison).
To simplify final evaluations, I modified the Bang-Marry-Kill holistic scoring rubric (the most influential evaluative tool of the 21st century) into the Backup-Maybe-KO system. Backup means that he has proven that he can be a second-string NFL quarterback for a good team; that's a promotion for many of these guys. Maybe means he could still develop into a starter. KO means please, please, please get this guy an offensive coordinator job at some FCS college before we are forced to watch him throw again.
...

Summary: Keenum is a "slow clock" quarterback whose best and worst decisions occur late in the play, when pass routes have developed and the pocket is collapsing. For every downfield throw on the run or rollout bomb to Andre Johnson, there are several plays where Keenum takes a sack, gets hurried, or delivers a throw that should have arrived a split-second sooner.

The Texans' play-action style suits Keenum because it is full of seven-step drops, rollouts and slow-developing pass routes. It is not clear whether that will be the Texans offensive style next year, or how well Keenum would adapt to more of a read-plant-throw system (though he put up big numbers in a quick-trigger system in college). Like many small "pesky pepperpot" quarterbacks, Keenum can be effective in short doses, but low completion rates (54.2 percent) and waning big-play capability in recent games may be signs that the league is figuring him out.

Decision: Maybe. Keenum can definitely stick as a 10-year backup, but there may be more to him than that. He does enough well, and has enough upside, to merit starter consideration.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64365140/

[Arky]

Another view from the outside on Keenum's potential (part of an article on 'mystery QBs' like McGloin and Tolzien for comparison).


http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64365140/

Very good. That's pretty much the way I see it. If Keenum has a strong adaption gene, he can be a starter.

And Nick Foles is an alien. How else do you explain a QB that doesn't have bad games?

[barrett]

Very good. That's pretty much the way I see it. If Keenum has a strong adaption gene, he can be a starter.

And Nick Foles is an alien. How else do you explain a QB that doesn't have bad games?

Against Dallas he had an 11/29 for 80 yards day and lost his starting job. I'd say that's a bad game.

[Arky]

Against Dallas he had an 11/29 for 80 yards day and lost his starting job. I'd say that's a bad game.

Man, got to get up pret-ty early in the morning to slip one by ol' barrett.... ;)

Actually, I was looking at his 19 TD's and 0 INT"s. That's just crazy.... And I do believe he's been named the starter for the rest of the year....

[popanot]

I think we have our answer on Case. He'll be a decent stop-gap starter, and if he's lucky, a career backup that makes a nice living injury and stress-free.

[Keith]

If the 2014 starting QB is already on this roster, then the 2014 season is already a total waste.

In this 2nd Jags game, Case showed us why he is nothing more than a backup, and Schaub showed us why he was demoted.

As for inserting T.J.:
JOQW3L-aXXg

...Tom Cruise says it best... sometimes you just gotta say WTF. Looks like T.J. Yates.

[Arky]

Yeah, not a good showing by Case vs. Jax. Not pitiful but he's seems to run into a wall at times... not really encouraging. :(

Strange because he had a pretty good showing against New England. I'd still prefer he get the remainder of the starts over the other two..... And if he struggles again, bring in one of the others as a relief pitcher...

[cadams]

Yeah, not a good showing by Case vs. Jax. Not pitiful but he's seems to run into a wall at times... not really encouraging. :(

Strange because he had a pretty good showing against New England. I'd still prefer he get the remainder of the starts over the other two..... And if he struggles again, bring in one of the others as a relief pitcher...

i think they should let andre play qb the rest of the year. that would at least give us something interesting to watch

[HPF Bob]

Keenum isn't accurate enough at this level and still indecisive at times. Part of that is inexperience but some of it has to be the player itself. Schaub came in and his knowledge of the offense allowed them to go hurry-up to get back in it but then ended the night with a pick and a sack.

Interesting how different the offense is with these two QBs. With Schaub, it's all five-yard crossing routes (even when we need 10-15 for a first down). With Keenum, it's more ad-libbed and less timing.

I still think I'd rather take Clowney or Matthews at 1-1 then take a QB to develop in Round 2. There's nothing wrong with keeping Schaub or Case and letting the development QB ease his way into the pros instead of being "the guy" in Week 1.

[barrett]

Keenum isn't accurate enough at this level and still indecisive at times. Part of that is inexperience but some of it has to be the player itself. Schaub came in and his knowledge of the offense allowed them to go hurry-up to get back in it but then ended the night with a pick and a sack.

Interesting how different the offense is with these two QBs. With Schaub, it's all five-yard crossing routes (even when we need 10-15 for a first down). With Keenum, it's more ad-libbed and less timing.

I still think I'd rather take Clowney or Matthews at 1-1 then take a QB to develop in Round 2. There's nothing wrong with keeping Schaub or Case and letting the development QB ease his way into the pros instead of being "the guy" in Week 1.

I agree Bob, I'd go Clowney over Matthews for sure, but I agree that I don't like any of the 1-1 QB options.

And I hope Case catches on somewhere like GB next year. I think he can play, but he is almost like a relief pitcher with one great pitch that gets knocked around if he goes through the order twice. He should be a spot starter and save the day in relief guy (Flutie). He struggles when you gameplan for him. Imagine him in GB this year savin gthe Packers season by winning 3 out of 4 when Rodgers goes down. Or having a Hostettler run to a superbowl. I think that is the ceiling for him.

[barrett]

Man, got to get up pret-ty early in the morning to slip one by ol' barrett.... ;)

Actually, I was looking at his 19 TD's and 0 INT"s. That's just crazy.... And I do believe he's been named the starter for the rest of the year....

I just remember watching that game and thinking how obvious it was to me that Foles was not an NFL QB. He was even worse than the numbers. By the end of the game he was concussed and Matt Barkley was throwing INTs. I thought he was done in Philly and Chip Kelly was an idiot who was being exposed by the NFL. I guess I could have been wrong...

[Arky]

I just remember watching that game and thinking how obvious it was to me that Foles was not an NFL QB. He was even worse than the numbers. By the end of the game he was concussed and Matt Barkley was throwing INTs. I thought he was done in Philly and Chip Kelly was an idiot who was being exposed by the NFL. I guess I could have been wrong...

Eh, we're all fans - it's what we do. We bitch, complain, knee-jerk and whine. And it's a good thing we aren't in charge.... ;)

[HPF Bob]

Kirk Cousins is going to start for the Redskins this week while they sort out the whole Snyder/Shanny/RG3 mess.

Skins also do not have a #1 choice this year because they traded it to the Rams to draft RG3. Depending on what happens there, the Texans may have an interesting target should they not want to pick a QB with the overall top choice.

And if Shanny survives in Washington, could he be interested in Matt Schaub who is already familiar with the offense and played college ball at Virginia?

Wouldn't it be a nice, tidy package if we sent Schaub, this year's 2nd and next year's 1st for RG3 or Schaub and this year's 2nd for Cousins?

[WMH]

Kirk Cousins is going to start for the Redskins this week while they sort out the whole Snyder/Shanny/RG3 mess.

Skins also do not have a #1 choice this year because they traded it to the Rams to draft RG3. Depending on what happens there, the Texans may have an interesting target should they not want to pick a QB with the overall top choice.

And if Shanny survives in Washington, could he be interested in Matt Schaub who is already familiar with the offense and played college ball at Virginia?

Wouldn't it be a nice, tidy package if we sent Schaub, this year's 2nd and next year's 1st for RG3 or Schaub and this year's 2nd for Cousins?

Don't see the Redskins new coach allowing that to happen in his first year. I don't see Shannahan surviving that mess.

[Nconroe]

Cousins might be woth a second or third round pick only. Schaub for Cousins might be a big cap hit. I guess Shanahan and most of staff gone .

[jaimeg]

I just remember watching that game and thinking how obvious it was to me that Foles was not an NFL QB. He was even worse than the numbers. By the end of the game he was concussed and Matt Barkley was throwing INTs. I thought he was done in Philly and Chip Kelly was an idiot who was being exposed by the NFL. I guess I could have been wrong...

We all seem to think it's obvious Case is not an NFL QB.

Maybe somebody should knock him over the head:D