Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[HPF Bob]

There's now a two-game gap between the haves and have nots in the AFC playoff race. The haves:

Houston 8-1
Baltimore 7-2
New England 6-3
Denver 6-3
Indianapolis 6-3
Pittsburgh 6-3

The rest of the conference is 4-5 or worse. While the Texans hope to fatten their record at home against the Jaguars, Baltimore plays at Pittsburgh and Indianapolis plays at New England.

The NFC side is murkier with eight teams in the mix and Dallas can creep within a game of the Giants in the NFC East if they can beat the Browns at home despite having a losing record at present.

[WMH]

I am truly impressed at what Indy has done. I saw them as a 4-5 win team for the season, and now they are battling for a playoff spot. Very impressive.

If Ben is done for the regular season, I could see Cincy back in, just don't have alot of faith in Leftwhich, and thier D is not what it was.

Obviously, the road is clear for the Texans and the #1 spot. Just need to stay healthy, and not drop more than 2. Baltimore will drop another, maybe 2, they are wildly inconsistent. At the end of the road, I can see Denver and NE fighting with us at the top. We have head to head over Denver, but probably won't have it over NE.

I could see us dropping the NE game and the last Indy game (assuming it doesn't matter much), ending up at 13-3, but you never know about that Oops games. If the last Indy game means something (#1 vs. #2), it will be interesting if Kubiak plays it out, or cashes it in.

Only other probable option for NE to drop a game is when the host San Fran, so they will likely end up with 12 or 13 W's. Others could happen, but that is the last likely candidate.

[nunusguy]

I forget what the composition of the first playoff-weekend/WC-weekend ? Is it 2 WC teams & 2 Division champs & 2 Byes per conference, or is it 3 WC teams & 1 Division champ & 3 Byes per conference ?

[chuck]

It's pretty clear to me that Denver is the second best team in the conference and quite possibly the second best team in football.

[WMH]

I forget what the composition of the first playoff-weekend/WC-weekend ? Is it 2 WC teams & 2 Division champs & 2 Byes per conference, or is it 3 WC teams & 1 Division champ & 3 Byes per conference ?

The top 2 seeds are off, 3 plays 6, 4 plays 5. 5 an 6 are the wild card teams, 3 and 4 are the other 2 division winners. Scheduling of Saturday vs. Sunday early/late depends on TV draw/anticipated ratings.

The nice thing about being the #1 seed, is we play indoors throughout the playoffs. Slip to the 2, and we could end up in Denver or NE in late January. We could also still end up at home for the AFC Champ game, but more things would need to fall our way (IE, 4 or 5 knocks off 1 in the division round).

[barrett]

It's pretty clear to me that Denver is the second best team in the conference and quite possibly the second best team in football.

I think Houston matches up well with Denver. Manning is performing surgery with short throws and smart audibles, but I think that is the worst strategy to attack the texans defense. You need big plays or we will create a negative play to kill a drive. Plus our DBs squatted on their routes all day. I think we beat Denver 9 times out of 10.

[barrett]

The top 2 seeds are off, 3 plays 6, 4 plays 5. 5 an 6 are the wild card teams, 3 and 4 are the other 2 division winners. Scheduling of Saturday vs. Sunday early/late depends on TV draw/anticipated ratings.

The nice thing about being the #1 seed, is we play indoors throughout the playoffs. Slip to the 2, and we could end up in Denver or NE in late January. We could also still end up at home for the AFC Champ game, but more things would need to fall our way (IE, 4 or 5 knocks off 1 in the division round).

I would not want to face Brady in bad weather, but manning has always been better indoor. If we somehow finished behind Denver I would not mind playing them in the snow.

[Nconroe]

It's pretty clear to me that Denver is the second best team in the conference and quite possibly the second best team in football.

That would make Texas clearly the best team in football.

no arguments here.

[chuck]

I think Houston matches up well with Denver. Manning is performing surgery with short throws and smart audibles, but I think that is the worst strategy to attack the texans defense. You need big plays or we will create a negative play to kill a drive. Plus our DBs squatted on their routes all day. I think we beat Denver 9 times out of 10.

In a second meeting Wade would attack Peyton with blitzes he hasn't seen. Their running game doesn't concern me and although their defense is very good and seems to get better every week our offense has so many ways to move the ball, control the ball and score that I think we can cause any defense problems.

If our guys stay healthy (and in a couple of cases get healthy) I will be very, very upset if any AFC team proves to be better.

And I would like to take a moment to congratulate Kareem Jackson for not sucking anymore. I would have to imagine that JJo has been spending some quality time with Young Master Kareem.

[Arky]

Gotta think the Texans ain't done with Sunday Night Football, yet. They have to be under heavy consideration to get flexed in vs. Minnesota (wk 16) or the two games with the Colts (wk 15 & 17) and the draw of media darling Andrew Luck....

[Arky]

To add to the post above..... from the506 (http://www.the506.com/nflmaps/index.html):

Flex Scheduling

•Between weeks 11 and 16, the scheduled (or "pencilled-in") NBC Sunday Night game may be replaced with a "flex" game, depending on competitiveness or ratings concerns. It is the NFL and not NBC that makes the decision to flex a game. The decision is made at least 12 days in advance, and the limits on national broadcasts described above are still in effect. The NFL may also simply decide to make the originally scheduled game official. (Note: in 2011, as Christmas falls on a Sunday and most games are on Christmas Eve instead, flex scheduling does not apply to week 16.)

•In week 17, the NBC game is determined only one week in advance (and usually first announced during the week 16 Sunday Night game), and no game is pencilled in on the original schedule.

•CBS and FOX can each protect five games between weeks 11 and 16 from being flexed to Sunday night. Their decisions are made after week 6. They cannot protect any week 17 games.

•CBS and FOX games may also switch timeslots with 12 days notice (or 6 in week 17) for ratings concerns. These may or may not be called a "flex" depending on who you talk to.

[TheMatrix31]

It looks like all the SNF games will probably stay in their place except maybe SD/NYJ in Week 16. The matchups up until then are all pretty good.

[nunusguy]

Gotta think the Texans ain't done with Sunday Night Football, yet. They have to be under heavy consideration to get flexed in vs. Minnesota (wk 16) or the two games with the Colts (wk 15 & 17) and the draw of media darling Andrew Luck....
I totally forgot about flex games ! Man is it ever nice being a real contender and "in the conversation", thanks for bringing it up Arky. Yep, we could get even more PT this season.

[HPF Bob]

Detroit at Green Bay may look like a dog by the time that game rolls around but there isn't anything else noticeably better that week.

Yes, Week 16 (San Diego at NY Jets) appears to be a major candidate for flexing. Minnesota is a good matchup but so are New Orleans at Dallas and NY Giants at Baltimore.

The problem is that Fox has the rights to all three games and the game being tossed back is a CBS game so the NFL might move a CBS game to Fox in order to balance it out.

Another problem for some local fans is that the Texans and Cowboys are presently both scheduled for Noon on Fox that day meaning Fox affiliates throughout the state will have to choose which came to carry unless one of them gets moved to a later time.

The Texans and Cowboys have the same conflict this Sunday, except it is on CBS with Jacksonville at Houston and Cleveland at Dallas both slated for a Noon start. If you're outside Houston, now's the time to lobby your local CBS affiliate.

[Arky]

Week 13 Philadelphia at Dallas on SNF.... if Dallas loses another game or two, that one could be a scratch... that would be a first. However, the NFL loves them some Cowboys...

[HPF Bob]

After another nailbiter, the Texans maintain their conference lead but the division leaders made ground on the wild card hopefuls with one more team jumping into contention:

1. Houston 9-1 (AFC South)
2. Baltimore 8-2 (AFC North)
3. New England 7-3 (AFC East)
4. Denver 7-3 (AFC West)
5. Indianapolis 6-4 (Wild Card 1) (4-3 in conf)
6. Pittsburgh 6-4 (Wild Card 2) (3-4 in conf)
--------
7. Cincinnati 5-5 (3-5 in conf)

The Bengals have two ways to get in - they can overtake Indy or hope that Indy ends the year with six conference losses while Cincy runs the table against AFC opponents OR they can beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh in Week 16 and hope to get other divisional tiebreakers to swing their way (PIT is 1-1 in the division while Cincy is 1-3 - Pittsburgh won, 24-17, in Cincy earlier in the season).

So the Bengals are clearly on the outside looking in but if they run the table with SD, OAK, DAL and PHI then beat PIT, it may come down to beating Baltimore in the final week for them.

All the 4-6 teams (BUF, SD, MIA, NYJ, TEN) will need to put on a surge to get into the playoffs.

[HPF Bob]

Incidentally, this site (http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html) calculates that the Texans have a 72% chance to get the #1 seed and a <1% chance of missing the playoffs altogether.

[TheMatrix31]

I really wonder how the injury situations will change things for the AFC when all is said and done. Ben and such hurt in Pittsburgh, Gronkowski hurt in New England (might miss the game against us, even?), all of Baltimore's stuff, Cushing.....

Really interesting. If the playoffs started this coming weekend, I'd be most scared of Denver and New England. Boy, wouldn't it be something if we faced Peyton in the playoffs? I gotta admit, the prospect of facing Manning for a second time in one season scares the shit out of me.

[HPF Bob]

Denver just lost Willis McGahee for 6-8 weeks and none of his backups are all that steady. Without a running game for play action, Manning might be less effective. He still has problems getting his Denver receivers in sync and seems to rely on Brandon Stokely when he needs a critical third down. But Denver's defense is a lot better than when the Texans played them and they just added LB D.J. Williams back from a nine-week suspension.

I'm most worried about New England. But if we stay the #1 seed and they become the #2 or #3 seed, we won't see them until the AFC Championship Game.

[HPF Bob]

ESPN has just posted their "Playoff Machine" online

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Just enter all your "what if" scenarios and see how it comes out.

[Keith]

So the Texans just missed clinching a wild card spot this weekend, but doing so next Sunday is very likely.

A Texans win over the Titans, and I believe they not only clinch a wild card spot, but they will have clinched no worse than the #5 seed.

Even if the Texans lose, a Dolphins loss (against the Patriots) clinches the #6 seed. Or, the combo of both the Bengals and Steelers losing gives them at least the #6 seed as well. If all four teams lose (Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, and Steelers), then the Texans are the #5.

They cannot yet clinch the division in Week 13 as the Colts are still too close with both head-to-head games to play.

ok... scenarios aside, the team seems likely to get one of the top 2 seeds with the big Week 14 match in New England pending. The likely AFC wild cards seem weak this season (aside from an interesting Denver-Indy matchup), so the Texans seem likely to host Denver or Baltimore in the divisional round then possibly the Pats for the AFC championship.

Based on how the pass D has looked the last two games, a shootout against Tom Brady seems daunting, but legit talk about deep AFC playoff matchups in late November is refreshing around here.

[popanot]

Looks like "Next Man Up" applies to the D this year. Hopefully Wade and crew can find the right recipe of players and dial up the right schemes to keep the W's coming. I think we should be good if we can get two more AFC wins out of the remaining games. Sure would've been nice had the Chargers taken care of business and beat the Ravens yesterday.

[HPF Bob]

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

[WMH]

I don't see Bmore winning out.
Thier remaining schedule is brutal:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Pittsburgh 4:25 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 9 @Washington 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs Denver 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs New York (G) 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 30 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS

In all honesty, I can see them dropping 2 or even 3 of those games.

Just my opinion, but I believe the top 2 will come from HOU, NE or DEN, in that order.

Denvers remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Tampa Bay 4:05 PM FOX
14 Thu, Dec 6 @Oakland 8:20 PM NFL
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Baltimore 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 4:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 4:25 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Tampa, who's been playing pretty well, and @Bmore.

NE's remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 @Miami 1:00 PM CBS
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Houston, ;), and San Fran.

[barrett]

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

[HPF Bob]

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

[barrett]

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

[cadams]

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

gotta agree here. i do think the texans drop at least one game, if not two before the end of the season, but i think you have to say that either the pats or ravens (if not both) probably lose a game as well.

baltimore is not good enough to win out. they have played terribly on the road this year and should have lost yesterday to san diego

[HPF Bob]

Question:

How many games have the Broncos, Ravens and Patriots lost the last four weeks?

Answer: none. We went 4-0 in November and didn't gain any ground on anyone. Thinking those teams can continue to play above the rest of the AFC is not unrealistic at all.

If the Patriots played Houston in Houston, I'd feel better about the Texans perhaps winning it. If the Ravens played Denver in Denver, I could see the Broncos winning that. But the fact that those key games (and SF at NE) are in Foxboro and Baltimore, means the home team probably wins in cold weather.

The Ravens are a much better team at home. Just look up the scores. If Big Ben doesn't play against the Ravens, Baltimore wins that too.

BTW, worst case scenario is if Schaub and Foster get hurt and we limp in at 10-6.

[cadams]

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

[WMH]

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

Its the Houston Pro Football Illness. People catch it every now and then, and if you don't watch it, it can be contagious. Thankfully, it usually doesn't last more than 6 days, at least it hasn't this year. ;)

[barrett]

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

There you have it. A perfect explanation for why everything will break against us.

Of course you could spin it all the opposite way if you felt like it. Baltimore and NE didn't lose in November but made up no ground...

How about a simple question. What kind of odds would you need to place money on both those teams going undefeated the rest of the way?

[barrett]

I meant to quote Bob there.

[Arky]

I know one thing: MNF matchup of Texans vs. Pats two games from now is already being discussed/anticipated as the NFL Game of the Year in one of the (national) sports betting forums I peruse. Would not surprise me if the Pats are a small favorite in this one.... I'm just hoping the Texans will be healthy enough to acquit themselves well..... But right now, a W at Tennessee is just as important...

[cadams]

on the pats, i wouldn't count out miami from steeling a win from them in one of their two remaining games either.

[chuck]

Let's face it, we're going to find out which are the truly elite teams down this stretch. Each of the four teams we're discussing will have ample opportunity to make its case.

[WMH]

Scratch Bmore from the list. Its now a 3 horse race.

Thank you Charlie Batch?
Wow......

[Arky]

Scratch Bmore from the list. Its now a 3 horse race.

Thank you Charlie Batch?
Wow......

Yep. It now looks like this:

Houston 11-1
New England 9-3
Baltimore 9-3
Denver 9-3
Indianapolis 8-4
Cincinnati 7-5
Pittsburgh 7-5

We got a 2 game lead on everyone else. Cincy and Pittsburgh - only one of those two advances. We've beaten 2 of 3 of our closest competitors and face the third (New England) on Monday night. Should be a real rip snorter.... ;)

[WMH]

Nick Scurfield (@NickScurfield) tweeted:
#Texans would clinch the top seed in the AFC next week if they win & BAL (at WAS), DEN (at OAK) & IND (vs TEN) all lose

[Keith]

Nick Scurfield (@NickScurfield) tweeted:
#Texans would clinch the top seed in the AFC next week if they win & BAL (at WAS), DEN (at OAK) & IND (vs TEN) all lose
Amazing, though unlikely.

Amazing to do it this early then go more than a month before participating in another meaningful game.

Unlikely because the Raiders and Titans aren't beating anybody.

[Nconroe]

I'm sure it would be good to have home field advantage for playoffs but for last several years a wold card team has won the superbowl.

There is some counter intuitive evidence it may be better to not have a week off in the playoffs in
the name of consistency and staying hot when your hot.

So main goal of being in playoffs is reached.

Now try to get even better this last quarter of the season.

[cadams]

try to get/stay healthy would be my preference. the texans have a lot of injuries that having that extra week off would assist with

[WMH]

Amazing, though unlikely.

Amazing to do it this early then go more than a month before participating in another meaningful game.

Unlikely because the Raiders and Titans aren't beating anybody.

Totally agree, BUT.....its still pretty cool. ;)

[HPF Bob]

With Baltimore's loss, the Texans have a two-game lead on New England and a 2-1/2 game lead on Baltimore and Denver because of head-to-head wins. Beating the Patriots practically seals the home field advantage whereas a loss would remove our margin for error. We'd probably need to win out against the Colts and Vikings if we lost to the Pats.

[cadams]

With Baltimore's loss, the Texans have a two-game lead on New England and a 2-1/2 game lead on Baltimore and Denver because of head-to-head wins. Beating the Patriots practically seals the home field advantage whereas a loss would remove our margin for error. We'd probably need to win out against the Colts and Vikings if we lost to the Pats.

not sure that is right. even with the loss the texans would be 1/2 a game up on the pats, and the pats still have the 49ers on their schedule. i think it is likely the pats lose one game downt the strecth. if they do the texans could lose this coming week, and one more (the finaly indy game maybe) and it not make a difference.

[Keith]

Denver and Baltimore play each other (@BAL) in Week 16, too.

NE's remaining schedule:
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

Indy's remaining schedule:
14 Sun, Dec 9 vs Tennessee 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Houston 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Kansas City 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Houston 1:00 PM CBS

The SF @ NE game is maybe a tough one for NE since they play a good 49er defense just 6 days after playing the Texans. So even though the Pats get SF at home, that ought to be a good one.

I think we'll learn a lot more about just how good the Patriots really are in these next two games. They put up a lot of points against weaker opponents. They mauled a decent Rams team 45-7, though that was under unusual circumstances (game played in London), and they mauled a surprising Colts team 59-24, but we're already questioning just how good the Colts really are anyway.

[HPF Bob]

I'm not sure I'd pin my hope on a team traveling east three time zones that isn't even sure who their starting quarterback should be. If this was the old Montana-Craig-Rice 49ers, that would be different.

[cadams]

i don't think he was pinning hopes. rather he was stating that playing them coming off the texans game will do a lot to offset the traveling east issues.

i agree that the next two weeks will give us a very good idea of who the pats are this year. they have really been all over the place. the the team who played in the two big victories discussed by keith, or the team that lost to the cards at home?

[Arky]

What kills me is to hear the TV guys (ESPN, NFLN) talking on the subject of "who's the best in the AFC?".... They so want to give the love to the Manning/Broncos and the Brady/Pats (power polls be damned).... Someone mentions the Texans and they'll mumble something about "defensive problems"..... One guy is still not over the Texan's loss to Green Bay pointing to that as proof they are "not worthy".... smfh....

The lone exception I've seen is Darren Sharper on NFLN. He's been in the Texan's corner for several weeks, now...

A Texan victory of the Pats might just rearrange the paradigm... I've heard one or two of the play-by-play guys mention what some of us are already thinking..... that there is a new player in the top dogs of the NFL and one that is built to stay there for a while....

[TheMatrix31]

I can't take ESPN seriously anyway. I don't watch ESPN unless there's a live event to be watched. And NFL Network is in a major slide, looking more and more like ESPN every day.

Sad.

[WMH]

From Paul K @ ESPN AFC South Blog:

Houston clinches AFC South division with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie OR

2) HOU tie + IND loss

Houston clinches a first-round bye with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2) HOU win + IND loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

Houston clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie + BAL loss + DEN loss

[Keith]

What kills me is to hear the TV guys (ESPN, NFLN) talking on the subject of "who's the best in the AFC?".... They so want to give the love to the Manning/Broncos and the Brady/Pats (power polls be damned)....
I think a lot of TV guys have simply forgotten or somehow ignored that the Texans beat Denver IN DENVER already this season. I get less irritated when others still claim the Pats are the best... they are the defending AFC champs at least with a credible resume this season, at least for one more week.

[HPF Bob]

These things are earned. Brady and the Pats have done it. Manning in the past has done it. The Texans have never been to an AFC Championship game and you always wonder when nerves will come in to play. So, I'm not worried the Texans get dissed a bit. In fact, I think it is good for the team to maintain focus by reminding them that there are still doubters out there.

The Texans will get their due soon enough.

[chuck]

These things are earned. Brady and the Pats have done it. Manning in the past has done it. The Texans have never been to an AFC Championship game and you always wonder when nerves will come in to play. So, I'm not worried the Texans get dissed a bit. In fact, I think it is good for the team to maintain focus by reminding them that there are still doubters out there.

I'm on board with all of this. Just win, baby.

[Arky]

These things are earned. Brady and the Pats have done it. Manning in the past has done it. The Texans have never been to an AFC Championship game and you always wonder when nerves will come in to play. So, I'm not worried the Texans get dissed a bit. In fact, I think it is good for the team to maintain focus by reminding them that there are still doubters out there.

The Texans will get their due soon enough.

I'm not worried about it either.... It's just I'm aghast at how far the devil-worshipping-east-coast-media-bias-conspiracy-illuminati (is that enough hot-topics?), have their craniums stuck up their rectums..... ;)

And yep, if the Texans are who we think they are, they'll get that defense tweaked and make some noise.....

[barrett]

Recognition and respect typically arrives too late and lasts too long. Like Bob says, if Houston wins it will come.

Plus I truly could care less about respect and attention from the media. I don't need a national news outlet to validate the Texans. It's not a beauty contest like the BCS. Everyone in the world can agree that Denver and NE are the best, and it doesn't change that those teams will have to come play in Reliant.

[WMH]

Whelp, we have pretty much removed our margin of error.

Go Ratbirds, and Go 9'ers.

3 horse race looks like it will come down to week 17.
Of course I am assuming our guys get thier heads out of thier a$$es.........

[HPF Bob]

I had factored in this loss even back when the schedules came out. Surprised it was so one-sided but not really surprised that we lost. I knew all along it would be our hardest game of the season. We still got that half-game lead and three to play. None will be easy but none should be impossible.

I hope the Texans line the field with Houston cops for when AP comes to town. ;)

[HPF Bob]

Super Bowl matchups of the past 10 years:

2011 -- No. 3 Giants over No. 1 Patriots

2010 — No. 6 Packers over No. 2 Steelers

2009 — No. 1 Saints over No. 1 Colts

2008 — No. 2 Steelers over No. 4 Cardinals

2007 -– No. 5 Giants over No. 1 Patriots

2006 — No. 3 Colts over No. 1 Bears

2005 — No. 6 Steelers over No. 1 Seahawks

2004 — No. 2 Patriots over No. 1 Eagles

2003 — No. 1 Patriots over No. 3 Panthers

2002 — No. 2 Buccaneers over No. 1 Raiders

You can see that #1 seeds in the playoffs don't prosper as well as most of us think, although I also think this misleads a bit. Home field advantage is still huge but the SB winner often seems to be the team that "gets hot" at the right time. This often bodes well for the healthier teams, of which I'd say we're probably about 80% on the health scale right now.

[Arky]

Ya, looks like #1's are 2-7 in the big game (including 2009 when both #1's made it). I think the thing is, if you're a #1, you have a really good chance of "getting there". Didn't remember that Seattle was a #1 back in 2005....

[machoneil]

Indy may not have anything to play for in the last game at thier house

[Arky]

Oooh, if this Niners vs. Pats game hold up (Niners currently leading 31-17, early 4th quarter), I believe the Texans may only need to win 1 of their remaining two games to get home field throughout (aka #1 seed).... Who would've thought the Pats could look so bad on Primetime? I know the Texans would never, uhhhh, nevermind.....

[Keith]

The Niners win over the Pats really does a huge favor for the Broncos. If current seedings hold, it would be the Pats as the #3 going to #2 Denver, assuming of course the Pats survive the Wild Card game.

And if the Colts are #5 and the Ravens #4, I don't think the Ravens are quite so automatic at home anymore. Always upsets in the playoffs....

[HPF Bob]

Texans just need to beat Minny next week to clinch home field overall. Denver now moves into the #2 slot with home games against Cleveland and Kansas City to close out the season.

The most likely scenario now is #1 Houston and #2 Denver get first-week byes.

First week will be Cin/Pit at NE, Indy at Baltimore If the home teams win, it then becomes Baltimore at Houston and NE at Denver. It really can't shape up any better for us.

Oh, and congrats to the AFC East Champion SF 49ers. You are better men than we are.

[WMH]

Oh, and congrats to the AFC East Champion SF 49ers. You are better men than we are.

Any given Sunday Bob. You've likely watched enough football to know that. It was amazing to watch the ball bounce the 49ers way as much as it did last night. It was also amazing to watch Brady bring his squad back from doldrums. Its what makes the NFL so great.

Needing 1 W out of 2 games for the #1 seed is pretty damn good if you ask me. We can pick apart this or that, but the fact remains, is we are 12-2, and that sounds pretty damn good to me. :D

[Nconroe]

Hope we wrap this all up with a win this week playing Vikings and Adrian Petersen.

Houston clinches a first-round bye with:

1) HOU win or tie OR
2) NE loss or tie OR
3) DEN loss

Houston clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) HOU win OR
2) HOU tie + DEN loss or tie OR
3) NE loss or tie + DEN loss

[Keith]

Denver's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 3:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 3:25 PM CBS

NE's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

I am not expecting any more help from either of these teams to get the Texans the #1 seed.

[cadams]

Denver's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 3:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 3:25 PM CBS

NE's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

I am not expecting any more help from either of these teams to get the Texans the #1 seed.

if the texans need help then they don't deserve a bye, much less a #1 seed. two winnable games and only need to win one of them.

[HPF Bob]

I tend to agree. The Texans ought to win one of the two games and preferably Sunday's. That's all they need to wrap this up because they have the tiebreaker with Denver and a two-game lead on the Patriots.

[HPF Bob]

Looks like Denver is winning so it should be:

1. Houston 12-3 (has tiebreaker over Denver)
2. Denver 12-3
3. New England 11-4
4. Baltimore 10-5
5. Indianapolis 10-5
5. Cincinnati 9-6

It seems extremely likely that if Houston beats Indy, these standings will look the same next week But if Indy wins, Houston drops to the #3 seed and hosts Cincy in the first round followed by a return trip to New England.

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

[painekiller]

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

We have to really hope it stays this way.

[Arky]

Though the talk I've heard is Texans as #1 or #3 seed, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that the Texans could end up the #2 seed. Not likely, but here's the scenario: Texans don't show up again and lose to the Colts, Broncos win over KC, and New England loses to Miami. Miami has won their last two by a combined 48-13 (albeit, Jax and Buffalo) but perhaps New England doesn't take the game seriously and rest starters half a game or so and Miami plays a good game. The spread is roughly NE by 11 and dropping (i.e. money is coming in on Miami). The game is in Foxboro, however......Just something to consider.....

Of course, the Texans could solve everything by taking care of the Colts..... I'd rather see the Texans have a bye week to heal despite the "going to get rusty" argument...