Playoff scenarios

[Arky]

As far as I can tell, the Texans still have a shot at a first round bye. Baltimore lost today and Pittsburgh could very well lose to SF on MNF. We have 8-2 conference record which is better than Baltimore (7-3) and Pitt (7-3). I believe if the Texans win their 2 remaining games and Baltimore falters against either Cleveland or Cincy, the Texans get the #2 seed....

[HPF Bob]

We have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Pittsburgh but Baltimore has the head-to-head over us. The problem is that if the Texans tie with both then the first elimination is between Pittsburgh and Baltimore which Baltimore wins due to a 2-0 series win over Pittsburgh which then gives Baltimore the tiebreaker over us too.

So, somehow, the Steelers have to finish a game ahead of the Ravens but manage to lose again themselves while Houston wins out in order for Houston to get a first-round bye. That means Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have to lose one more time while Houston does not.

Then it will be:

New England 13-3
Houston 12-4
Pittsburgh 12-4 (loses tiebreaker)
Baltimore 11-5 as a wild card.

In any other rational scenario, we're the #3 seed.

[nunusguy]

So if we open up with a wild-card game at Reliant I'm thinking it's looking like Cinci again or the Jets or maybe someone out of the AFC west ?

[HPF Bob]

NYJ (8-6): vs NYG, @ MIA
CIN (8-6): vs ARZ, vs BAL
TEN (7-7): vs JAX, @ HOU
OAK (7-7): @ KC, vs SD
SD (7-7): @ DET, @ OAK

Nobody has an easy road to the last playoff spot. We need to root for the Bagels to beat the Ratbirds the final weak of the season.

[cadams]

if pitt loses tonight and the pats lose one of their remaining two the texans would get the number one seed. 4 teams at 12-4, pitt out due to balt having head to head wins, then hou has best conf record between new england and baltimore

[Nconroe]

If Rithlesberger keeps throwing picks Pitt just might loose.

[popanot]

Well, 1 down... Of course, the Texans need to hold up their end of the bargain and win out. Let's hope the Ravens lose another game. Talk by some of wanting to see the Texans in a wildcard game b/c it gives them (and us fans) a better chance at a playoff win is just plain silly. I'd much rather take the path of playing the fewest games possible to reach the SB.

[Arky]

The Chron (http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2011/12/a-thorough-breakdown-of-texans-playoff-scenarios/) posted a pretty thorough breakdown of the all the playoff scenarios.

If the Texans want a first-round bye, they need help.

If they win their two remaining games — at Indianapolis (on Thursday) and against visiting Tennessee (Jan. 1) — they would earn a bye only if either New England or Baltimore suffers a loss.

New England, at 11-3 is in control of the race for the top seed. The Patriots face Miami, which lost to New England earlier this year but is 5-2 after an 0-7 start to the year. The Patriots close with Buffalo, which beat New England earlier this year but has lost its last seven games.

Baltimore has the most challenging game remaining of the top four teams, finishing the year at Cincinnati, which lost 31-24 to Baltimore earlier this season but likely will be fighting for a wild-card berth. The Ravens also host 4-10 Cleveland.

The Ravens swept Pittsburgh during the season, so in a tie-breaker the Ravens would win the AFC North, leaving Pittsburgh with a wild-card berth.

But, should Baltimore fall to Cincinnati (or Cleveland), Pittsburgh would win the division by winning out against two sorry teams (St. Louis and Cleveland).

If Pittsburgh wins the division and finishes with the same record as Houston, the Texans would get the edge because of their win over the Steelers this season.

So, Texans fans, there’s another reason to cheer for former Katy star Andy Dalton and the Bengals in the final week of the season.

The most likely scenario, if there is such a thing, is that New England, Baltimore and Houston win out (since they are the top playoff teams after all), giving the Texans the No. 3 overall seed and a first-round game at Reliant Stadium.

Against whom? Well, good luck figuring that out. (See below)

[Keith]

Texans are locked into the #3 seed.

Who do you want to see as the #6? And should the Texans win, which road game would you prefer, Pats/Ravens/Steelers?

[barrett]

Texans are locked into the #3 seed.

Who do you want to see as the #6? And should the Texans win, which road game would you prefer, Pats/Ravens/Steelers?

I'd most like to play Cincy. They are not very good offensively and Yates would probably be most confident going into that game due to the win and how it happened. Plus I think they are the least talented.

I would hugely prefer Pittsburgh or Baltimore to having to play New England. NE turns almost any game into a shootout, and we are not equipped for that. With Pittsburgh we are in a slugfest and we know there line struggles. And Baltimore lays an egg about every 3 or 4 games.

[nunusguy]

Looks like our WC opponent could be any team from a group including Cinci, the Jets, the Chiefs, Oakland, and the Titans, depending of course on what the outcome of their games are next Sunday and tiebreakers ?
I'm curious about Kuibaks approach to Sundays regular season finale against the Titans, one of those possible playoff opponents ? Will he go all-out to win the game or give consideration to resting starters by limiting their snaps ?

[HPF Bob]

Cincy is in the drivers seat for the last wild card slot but they have to beat the Ravens or hope for help. I do think they make a good first round opponent because I think they lack confidence in themselves, just like we do.

The Chiefs and Chargers are officially out so it is down to Cincy, the Jets, the Titans or the Raiders. It looks like the Bengals take most tiebreaker scenarios, then the Raiders, then the Titans then the Jets but it all depends on the outcomes of about six AFC games.

[popanot]

The Bengals and Jets are about the same, IMO. The Raiders are probably a team that could cause a lot of problems in the playoffs. One thing is for damn sure, though. We need to beat the Titans this week and put them out of their misery. I'm tired of them hanging around. Of course, we're talking Houston sports here and the sporting Gods (GODell and his merry band of 'overofficious jerks') will make sure we play -and subquently lose to- Bud at home in a playoff game. It would only be a fitting conclusion to the season for the long suffering Houston sports fan.

[HPF Bob]

I think the Texans are likely to sit some of their best players on Sunday, including AJ because winning benefits them nothing at this point. They are division champs. They are the #3 seed and winning or losing doesn't change that. Even if the Titans somehow wind up as the sixth seed, the Texans know they can beat these guys when healthy. The only difference between our earlier win in Nashville and now is Schaub.

[edo783]

The only difference between our earlier win in Nashville and now is Schaub.

That isn't a small difference.

[WMH]

I'm seeing a return trip by the Raiders....

Don't think Cincy will beat the Ravens.
I think SD has already went into the tank, especially with the effort they gave last week.
Jets will likely beat Miami, but it won't matter either way.
I think the Titans will pull this off due to resting players in the 2nd half, but it won't matter for them either.

If that's the case, hopefully Kubiak will come up with a better gameplan for the run game, which was non-existent in round 1. We can't count on TJ throwing for 400+ like Schaub did to keep us in the game.

[Nconroe]

Well, I'm happy to see Jets eliminated from playoffs this year.

[popanot]

It would take a collosial meltdown by San Diego right now for it not to be Cinci coming here next week.

[popanot]

Denver loses so its definitely Cinci.

[Arky]

Denver loses so its definitely Cinci.

Yep, NBC just showed win against Cincy and we get New England.....

[HPF Bob]

As I understand it, we get Baltimore as long as we win. If Cincy wins, THEY get New England.

[Arky]

As I understand it, we get Baltimore as long as we win. If Cincy wins, THEY get New England.

Hmm, OK. Maybe I'm wrong. NBC showed it in bracket-like form but come to think of it, there were no connecting lines.....

[HPF Bob]

After the wild card round, the brackets are reset by seeds.

So, if 3 beats 6, 3 plays 2.
If 6 beats 3, 6 plays 1.
If 4 beats 5, they play 1 if 3 beats 6 but plays 2 if 6 beats 3.
If 5 beats 4, they play 1 if 3 beats 6 but plays 2 if 6 beats 3.

Think through it and it will make sense. The key is that the highest seed always plays the worst remaining seed.

[Arky]

Early line (http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml): Texans 2.5 pt favorite over Bengals

[WMH]

Seeing tweets that NBC picked up the game for 3:30 on Saturday.
Gonna be a GREAT day!

[Keith]

Yep, confirmed by Bengals official site.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Wild-day-gives-Bengals-playoff-berth-Saturday-at-430/358b23da-ab92-4af6-920a-45f05ea629d2

[chuck]

That will allow for some serious tailgating.

[WMH]

That will allow for some serious tailgating.

Ah, yeah! And some good quality couch time on Sunday to recoup.

:D

[nunusguy]

Not the opponent I wanted, was hoping we'd get the Titans, but there's no turning back now.

[Keith]

If the Texans win, they'd play noon on Sun 1/15 at Baltimore... not trying to jinx, but for those of you who need to juggle your schedules...

[nunusguy]

Half of the AFC playoff teams are from the North as division winner NE is the lone team from the East. And the Jets end up at .500, I dunno has Ryan predicted a victory for the 2013 SB yet ?
Early odds make us favored by a FG.

[HPF Bob]

Noteworthy that we were 3-1 against the AFC North so perhaps we should consider ourselves AFC North Champions!