The upcoming Jaguars game, 10/30/2011

[Arky]

The Texans (4-3) play the first of two home games hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday in a CBS early game. The Texans are fresh off probably their best showing of the year in defeating the Tennessee Titans 41-7 at Nashville. Safety Danieal Manning was injured in the game and joins a growing list of incapacitated Texans though he may return in 4-8 weeks. Reserve Troy Nolan will fill in in his absence. The Texans, first place in the AFC South, will be looking for a W to improve their divisional record and to keep the hounds at bay.

The Jaguars are coming off a surprising upset of the Baltimore Ravens on MNF. The Jaguar defense was outstanding putting the clamps on the Raven offense and won by a score of 12-7. The Jaguars 2-5 record is a bit deceptive: they won their first game of the year over the Titans and then proceeded to lose five in a row. They got smashed by the Jets 32-3 in week 2 then had reasonably close and competitive losses to Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Texan defense will need to keep MJD in check and keep the Jag offense led by rookie QB Blaine Gabbert from gaining confidence and getting started on any kind of a roll.

TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon, CST

Announcers (http://www.the506.com/nflmaps/2011/wk8.html) = Marv Albert, Rich Gannon

Favorite (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) = Texans by 9.5 to 10.5

[HPF Bob]

The Jags combine a physical defense and a ball-control offense. The key is obviously to get out to an early lead and force them to play catch-up. Expect the Texans to put 8 or 9 in the box and force Gabbert to beat them with his arm.

On offense, a nice mix of Foster/Tate can open up throws to the tight ends, just as it did against the Titans.

I'm not sure the Texans will cover but, in Houston, I expect them to win.

[nunusguy]

Favorite (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) = Texans by 9.5 to 10.5
After the MNF game, that line is surely gonna move ?

[Arky]

After the MNF game, that line is surely gonna move ?

Oh, it's gonna move alright... I expect the public to be all over the Jags.... :)

Walter (http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2011_08early.php) likes the Jags and has some pretty convincing trends to back it up (ATS = against the spread):

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Jaguars have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Jack Del Rio is 7-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.
Jaguars are 5-1 ATS going into the bye since 2005.
Texans are 17-31 ATS after a win (11-15 since 2007).

I'm picking the Jags, too but would love to see a continuation of the Titans game.....

[WMH]

Man, I just don't see the Hags scoring enough to cover that number, even if they hold us to 20. Outside of MJD breaking long TD run, they are likely to score mostly FG's, probably from 40+. While their D is solid, I watched most of the MNF game, and that was more of BAL being inept/off that night as it was the Hags D being good. Flacco was flat out terrible, and for whatever reason, Ray Rice had something like 12 touches....(glad to see we're not the only team where coaches "out-smart" themselves).

I could see a 20-6 game out of this one.

Yep, the Kool-Aid is COLD. :rolleyes:

[machoneil]

On MNF, the Jags Oline and Dline were dominating LOS vs. BAL. I'm hoping it was a combo of losing streak/ National spotlight/ Home game.

They do not have enough to stop our passing attack, especially during a scripted or no-huddle stretch.

I'm thinking our LBs and Safeties will have to come up huge against their run game.

[barrett]

On MNF, the Jags Oline and Dline were dominating LOS vs. BAL. I'm hoping it was a combo of losing streak/ National spotlight/ Home game.

They do not have enough to stop our passing attack, especially during a scripted or no-huddle stretch.

I'm thinking our LBs and Safeties will have to come up huge against their run game.

How was their OL dominating? They did not score a TD all night. They have the WORST offense in the NFL at 252 ypg (10 yards per game worse than 31st ranked Seattle). Our LBs and Safeties do not need to come up huge, we just need to avoid self destructing and we cruise to an easy victory.

People are way overselling Jacksonville winning that game monday. Remember that Baltimore got rolled by Tennessee earlier in the yea. Baltimore is more jeckyl and hyde than we are.

[nunusguy]

I'm picking the Jags, too but would love to see a continuation of the Titans game.....
Really ?
I might be willing to conceed victory to the Jags in our rematch on their turf later this year, but if the Texans aren't up to winning this game
against this division rival at home this weekend then that's a far bigger disappointment than the home-filed loss we took against he Raiders 2 weeks ago
and they aren't worthy of being the AFC South Champs.

[machoneil]

True, no TDs, but I look at fumbelitis and BAL stacking the box for that. I retract 'dominating' and put forward 'brutish'.

[HPF Bob]

Don't confuse "picking the Jaguars" against the spread (+7) with "picking the Jaguars" to win the game. I don't think anybody here is doing the latter.

It should also be noted that J'ville beat us last year with that ridiculous deflected Hail Mary. I wonder how much, if any, that might get thrown in the players faces before this game.

[WMH]

Local Jax radio host was on 790 with Matt Thomas and said he doesn't see how Jax can stay within 2 TD's of the Texans......

KOOL-AID! Drink it up.

[Arky]

Don't confuse "picking the Jaguars" against the spread (+7) with "picking the Jaguars" to win the game. I don't think anybody here is doing the latter.....

Exactly. I think the Texans will win but not by 10+, i.e. Jags to cover....

This should be a taking-care-of-business game for the Texans. We learn a little bit about this year's team each week and there are some things going on that are unprecedented. For example, they are +6 in giveaways/takeaways (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/league/afc) which is good for 2nd in the AFC (Buffalo is +9). That's what winning teams do: have more takeaways than giveaways. I'm pretty sure they've never had that good of position in their history this late into the season. So, is there a game on the horizon where they cough the ball up left and right ("same old Texans") or are they going to keep improving that number?

[Nconroe]

And if sacks relates, Texans have 19 , same as Baltimore, which is second highest in NFL to 14 sacks by Jags.

Otherwise defenses stack up pretty even and maybe Jacksonville has had an even tougher schedule than Texans to date.

I was thinking something like 24-16 for Texans, but who knows. Just win.

[TheMatrix31]

Just don't give up any stupid fake punts.

[HPF Bob]

Apparently, the very early lines had the Texans by 9-1/2 so it has already moved down if it is now 7. The two things that concern me are: 1) the Texans have never been that good at stopping MJD and 2) we'll be the fourth straight 3-4 defense the Jags will have faced so they'll know exactly what we are doing.

IMO, Sunday was the first time all year we've played two good halves. Just because it happened once, we shouldn't assume we won't go back to our "one good half" trend this week.

[barrett]

Apparently, the very early lines had the Texans by 9-1/2 so it has already moved down if it is now 7. The two things that concern me are: 1) the Texans have never been that good at stopping MJD and 2) we'll be the fourth straight 3-4 defense the Jags will have faced so they'll know exactly what we are doing.

IMO, Sunday was the first time all year we've played two good halves. Just because it happened once, we shouldn't assume we won't go back to our "one good half" trend this week.

Even if they are used to a 34, they have scored 13 ppg against those 34 defenses. That would be like saying Peyton manning has owned the texans so much they know what to expect and should beat him next time.

[WMH]

Apparently, the very early lines had the Texans by 9-1/2 so it has already moved down if it is now 7. The two things that concern me are: 1) the Texans have never been that good at stopping MJD and 2) we'll be the fourth straight 3-4 defense the Jags will have faced so they'll know exactly what we are doing.

IMO, Sunday was the first time all year we've played two good halves. Just because it happened once, we shouldn't assume we won't go back to our "one good half" trend this week.

Agree somewhat, but I really think you are discounting the total ineptness of the Hags offense. They are averaging 12 pts. per game....and that's a little skewed cause the hung 20 on Cincy. Probably closer to 10ish without that game.

Even if we have one of our 1st half games, which we all know is a definite possibility, I just don't see how they have the fire power to catch back up.

[Keith]

Exactly.

I think the Texans cover easily. They are typically a fast-start team which ought to make the Jags think pass too early. I like the offense to jump out quickly in the first half and for the defense to express themselves in the second.

This is battle red day.... I doubt the team suffers any sort of letdown after the Titans win, though I could see the Jags going through the motions here after their business with the Ravens.

[Arky]

I guess we'll see Sunday....

Interesting to note, the spread is not moving. Still 9.5 to 10.5 (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php). Walt has 57% of the money coming in on Houston. Though a small sample size @ 2,000, this tells me the general public might have more faith in the Texans covering that some of us do....

There's a phenomenon in the betting world that happens sometimes.... Last week, when the Titans were favored by 3, right before kickoff, I saw two of the sportsbooks (5Dimes and Sportbet) drop to Titans by 1.5. This means a huge amount of money came in for Houston at the last minute. When you see something like that, you can bet (pun intended) it is pro-gamblers/sharps wagering on what they think is a lock. When I saw that, I thought "Texans might just win today"..... :cool:

[WMH]

No real surprise here:

@McClain_on_NFL: Andre Johnson didn't practice today. Gary Kubiak said he's not ready to play Sunday.

@McClain_on_NFL: Kubiak said he held Johnson out of practice to help him prepare for Cleveland game.

@McClain_on_NFL: Johnson practiced Wednesday and Thursday but said he didn't feel right after both practices.

Personally, and this is assuming we come out of Sunday with a W, I'm not sure I play him vs. Cleveland either....one game at a time though.

[Keith]

Personally, and this is assuming we come out of Sunday with a W, I'm not sure I play him vs. Cleveland either....one game at a time though.Worth the threat at least to get the Browns to spin their wheels on how they adjust their defensive plan if there is a possibility Andre plays. Probably not a big waste of their time, but all part of the chess match....
:p

[HPF Bob]

I'm actually kind of happy AJ will sit this week out because I think we can win without him. Then, next week, activate him but use him sparingly - more as a decoy than as a weapon.