Texans' Current Draft Position: 9-13

[HPF Bob]

With four weeks to go:

1. Carolina 1-11
2. Detroit 2-10
Buffalo 2-10
Cincinnati 2-10
5. Arizona 3-9
Denver 3-9
7. San Francisco 4-8
Dallas 4-8
9. Minnesota 5-7
Washington 5-7
Cleveland 5-7
Tennessee 5-7
HOUSTON 5-7
14. Six tied with 6-6

[edo783]

I suspect we may move up a spot or two when all is said an done. Perhaps #7 or so.

[painekiller]

With four weeks to go:

1. Carolina 1-11
2. Detroit 2-10
Buffalo 2-10
Cincinnati 2-10
5. Arizona 3-9
Denver 3-9
7. San Francisco 4-8
Dallas 4-8
9. Minnesota 5-7
Washington 5-7
Cleveland 5-7
Tennessee 5-7
HOUSTON 5-7
14. Six tied with 6-6

The 1st tie breaker is strength of schedule, and from what I can gather, we have the toughest schedule of the teams we are tied with. That would give us the 13th pick currently. I will have a better stat on this Tuesday.

[kRocket]

I hope that this year we don't have a meaningless run at the end of the season to move us into draft mediocrity again. a couple of wins turned to losses last year moved us down considerably in the draft and maybe out of the running for a top-notch player. Remember that position runs throughout the rounds.

[HPF Bob]

With three weeks to go:

1. Carolina (1-12)
2. Cincinnati (2-11)
3. Denver (3-10)
Buffalo (3-10)
Detroit (3-10)
6. Arizona (4-9)
Dallas (4-9)
8. Washington (5-8)
Minnesota (5-8)
San Francisco (5-8)
HOUSTON (5-8)
Cleveland (5-8)
Tennessee (5-8)

The Titans are actually -3 in the W-L but +26 in pt. differential.

PK is right that SOS determines the tiebreaker for the draft which tends to kill us because it is the worst SOS that gets priority and the AFC South is traditionally a strong division, although not so much this year.

[NBT]

What we need in the Draft is a head hunting excellent coverage FS, and that can be had in the mid first round. After that I still want a DT that can collapse the QB pocket on 3rd downs.

[TheMatrix31]

I want wins. Considering two of our last three games are against teams we f'n hate......I want wins. I don't care about draft position if it means we can beat the hell out of the Titans and cost Jacksoffville a playoff spot.

[painekiller]

What we need in the Draft is a head hunting excellent coverage FS, and that can be had in the mid first round. After that I still want a DT that can collapse the QB pocket on 3rd downs.

I guess it doesn't matter if there are any safeties worth a top 15 pick, go ahead and take one cause we need it.

Currently I do not have safety worth a 1st round pick. I would draft CB Brandon Harris at our current draft position, and move Quin or Jackson to FS. Monday night showed what Pollard can do if used correctly. He needs to be around the line of scrimmage and attaching.

[Nconroe]

Yeah, Pollard looked like an all-Pro this last game, first time they cut him loose at the line all year for some reason.

[HPF Bob]

I want wins. Considering two of our last three games are against teams we f'n hate......I want wins. I don't care about draft position if it means we can beat the hell out of the Titans and cost Jacksoffville a playoff spot.

Sweeping the Titans has its appeal but how will that feel when they draft the defensive player we wanted this spring?

And, if we cost Jacksoffville a playoff spot, all we do is let the even more despised Colts back in.

The real conflict for me is the Broncos game. How do I root when both teams need to lose?

[popanot]

The real conflict for me is the Broncos game. How do I root when both teams need to lose?I think I'd be rooting for the Broncos to lose if I were a fan of both teams. The Texans are going to be in that BPA no-man's land anyway as far as draft position.

[chuck]

How do I root when both teams need to lose?

Don't worry, one of them will.

[NBT]

Yeah, Pollard looked like an all-Pro this last game, first time they cut him loose at the line all year for some reason.

But in those zone defenses we have been using, Pollard couldn't cover a WR, much less a TE, with a blanket. Good tackler, no cover is the rap on our SS.

[ArlingtonTexan]

Well we're moving on up

[HPF Bob]

A lot of bottom-feeders won this week to mix things up:

1. Carolina (2-12)
2. Denver (3-11)
Cincinnati (3-11)
4. Arizona (4-10)
Detroit (4-10)
Buffalo (4-10)
7. San Francisco (5-9)
Houston (5-9)
Washington (5-9)
Dallas (5-9)
Cleveland (5-9)
12. Minnesota (5-8)* - pending MNF result.
13. Tennessee, Seattle and St. Louis at 6-8

[popanot]

Just our luck - and a fitting kick in the @$$ - we'll finished tied with about 5 teams and end up with the last pick amoungst them all.

[Joshua]

Just our luck - and a fitting kick in the @$$ - we'll finished tied with about 5 teams and end up with the last pick amoungst them all.

Don't know how it will finish up but as of last week, Cleveland had had the toughest schedule in the league to date so we will probably be picking in front of them if we have the same record.

And I can't believe I just typed a sentence assuming we will have the same record as Cleveland. Wow. They have a rookie 3rd round pick/washed-up Delhomme at QB, a RB nobody wanted, and basically no receivers and will probably have the same or better record than us despite playing a tougher schedule. In just a couple years, Mangini (who I don't even consider to be a good coach) has taken a bunch of castoffs and already made them into a better team than the Texans. But let's just stick to our 43 year plan. As McNair would say, "We're on the right track."

[HPF Bob]

The draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule which hurt the Texans in past years because the AFC South was so strong but it isn't this year. The AFC North is stronger. While this is no sure thing, I am ranking the divisions from weakest to strongest and expecting the SOS to be roughly equivalent.

1. NFC West
2. AFC West
3. AFC South
4. NFC Central
5. NFC East
6. AFC North
7. AFC East
8. NFC South

It actually kicks bad teams in good divisions in the teeth twice - first by forcing them to endure a tough division and secondly by penalizing their draft position by giving them the shaft on draft tiebreakers because of their strength of schedule. I don't agree with the whole SOS tiebreaker (it ought to be the same tiebreakers as determining the playoffs except in reverse) but it often wounds the Texans but not this year.

[painekiller]

I have us picking between 10 and 12 currently. Some depends on the Bears Vikings game tonight, and some depends on how that SOS plays out.

Currently we are not picking in the top 8.

[KJ3]

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

[popanot]

They need to bring back Kris Brown and float a few wide-right.

[painekiller]

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

We have the Broncos playing us this weekend and the Texans should win that one, rookie QB playing and all that, but the Jags should beat us to end the season.

So right now, sadly my 6-10 prediction is looking good.

[Keith]

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

Wow, did you just go two years between posts here? Sooo, whatcha been up to? :D

[HPF Bob]

Assuming the Vikings lose in Phrigid Philly* on Tuesday, here's the updated projected draft order and their final opponent: (z - clinched #1 pick)

1. Carolina (2-13) z - @ ATL
2. Denver (4-11) vs SD
Cincinnati (4-11) @ BAL
Buffalo (4-11) @ NYJ
5. San Francisco (5-10) vs ARI
Arizona (5-10) @ SF
Detroit (5-10) vs MIN
Minnesota* (5-10) @ DET
Houston (5-10) vs JAX
Dallas (5-10) @ PHI
Cleveland (5-10) vs PIT
12. SEA, WSH, TEN (6-9)

Note that SF-ARI and DET-MIN play each other in Week 17 so one could assume that a loss to Jacksonville will put the Texans in the Top 10 in next spring's draft, probably around #8. I wouldn't count on DEN, CIN or BUF to pull off an upset to get their fifth win.

[WMH]

Kuharsky tweeted that we were in the 8th spot:

@espn_afcsouth: Projected draft order from ESPN Stats and Info has #Texans picking eighth right now.

Projected Order Of Top 11 Picks In 2011 NFL Draft
Team W-L Win Pct. Schedule Strength*
1. Panthers 2-13 .133 .576
2. Broncos 4-11 .267 .508
3. Bengals 4-11 .267 .580
4. Bills 4-11 .267 .582
5. Cardinals 5-10 .333 .456
6. 49ers 5-10 .333 .494
7. Cowboys 5-10 .333 .521
8. Texans 5-10 .333 .527
9. Lions 5-10 .333 .549
10. Browns 5-10 .333 .576
11. Vikings 5-9 .357 .542


http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth

[Fonz the Boss]

I'm going to be so upset if we beat the Jaguars.

[HPF Bob]

A win over Jacksonville might drop us from eighth to as far as 11th or 12th.

[popanot]

A win over Jacksonville might drop us from eighth to as far as 11th or 12th.Ahh, yes, a fitting kick in the nuts from Rubes to all us fans on his way out. Without a doubt, it's going to happen.

[TheMatrix31]

I think it's horrible to wish to lose the game, draft position aside.

We loathe Jacksoffville. I want them dead in the water and out of the playoffs. Screw them.

[nunusguy]

I think it's horrible to wish to lose the game, draft position aside.

We loathe Jacksoffville. I want them dead in the water and out of the playoffs. Screw them.

But what if a higher position in the Draft gives the Texans the opportunity to select a player who would enable them to more effectively compete with the
Jags in the future in games that really mean something, like getting into the playoffs ?

[barrett]

Is there a big difference in the historical production of the #8 and #12 picks? Or more importantly, what we can do with that pick? I know last year if we had won more we may have been forced into McCourty over KJ. That would have been terrible.

With that said, I have wanted to lose since about week 12 so that Kubiak would be out. Or I should say I've wanted to lose on principal so he would be fired. Because no matter how much I want that on monday through saturday, I find 100% of myself wanting the Texans to win on Sunday (and 100% of myself feeling gut-punched when they find a new way to lose).

Bottom line is I really don't think it matters either way if we win or lose this game.

[HPF Bob]

I'm not a fan of rooting to lose but I don't think winning helps the Texans at all. Winning gives McNair the fig leaf to perhaps stick with Kubiak another year as well as hurting our draft position.

Keep in mind, the draft is what you do with it, not just where you draft. We COULD have had Patrick Willis, not Amobi Okoye. We COULD have had Derrick Johnson, not Travis Johnson. How many more TEs and WRs do you want us to draft instead of finding some better DBs?

And as for kicking the Jags out of the playoffs, they're already out. There may still be a mathematical chance but the Colts would have to choke and if the Jaguars can't even beat the McNabb-less Redskins at home in a must-win situation, I just don't see them making the playoffs.

[chuck]

If you literally root for your team to lose on game day then you are not a fan. If, after a loss in the sort of situation in which we find ourselves, you cannot recognize the silver lining then you are not sensible.

[nunusguy]

I know last year if we had won more we may have been forced into McCourty over KJ. That would have been terrible.

Given the Texans history in choosing corners, they probably would have taken somebody like Kyle Wilson and still left McCourty on the Board.

[coloradodude]

Well, after we got lambasted, utterly dominated, by the cowboys I wanted us to lose every single game after that. The reason? A new coach.

Am I not a fan? Unfortunately, losing seasons or winning Super Bowls are the only way you get a coaching change. I want the Texans to go to the playoffs every single year but this coaching staff is not gonna get that done. Thinking bigger picture means we have to have a coaching change...and a losing season. Ugh, the worst the better because McNair seems okay with mediocrity.

BTW, this weeks game will have the flavor of a preseason game to me. 8th pick or 12th pick means nothing because boom or bust looms in the first round.

[painekiller]

Well, after we got lambasted, utterly dominated, by the cowboys I wanted us to lose every single game after that. The reason? A new coach.

Am I not a fan? Unfortunately, losing seasons or winning Super Bowls are the only way you get a coaching change. I want the Texans to go to the playoffs every single year but this coaching staff is not gonna get that done. Thinking bigger picture means we have to have a coaching change...and a losing season. Ugh, the worst the better because McNair seems okay with mediocrity.

BTW, this weeks game will have the flavor of a preseason game to me. 8th pick or 12th pick means nothing because boom or bust looms in the first round.


In this draft the premium picks appear to be the top 5, after that there is a group of guys that can be #7 or #21 depending on each team/ internet gurus list. So if your not top 5 IMO being #8 or #12 doesn't change much. This is not a great draft for off the chart type talent, but there seems to be a large number number of good prospects.

[WMH]

In this draft the premium picks appear to be the top 5, after that there is a group of guys that can be #7 or #21 depending on each team/ internet gurus list. So if your not top 5 IMO being #8 or #12 doesn't change much. This is not a great draft for off the chart type talent, but there seems to be a large number number of good prospects.

True, but losing might net you Patrick Peterson if we can sneak into the top 5......

I would be a non-fan for a day if that happens.

[painekiller]

True, but losing might net you Patrick Peterson if we can sneak into the top 5......

I would be a non-fan for a day if that happens.

Me too, I see him as the best guy in this draft who is not a QB at Stanford.

[NBT]

I guess it doesn't matter if there are any safeties worth a top 15 pick, go ahead and take one cause we need it.

Currently I do not have safety worth a 1st round pick. I would draft CB Brandon Harris at our current draft position, and move Quin or Jackson to FS. Monday night showed what Pollard can do if used correctly. He needs to be around the line of scrimmage and attaching.

PK, come on now, don't put words in my mouth. I was only saying what I thought was one of our primary needs. It certainly does matter "where" we draft them. At this point in time (a long way from the draft) I was making the point that we were really weak at the FS position. I hope for it to be addressed in a smart fashion this time around.

[HPF Bob]

Well, the Vikings just gave us a little help with their Tuesday night win in Philly. Guess those guys can play in the snow, after all! :D

Now if the Lions can beat the Vikes off their short week, that will be even better.

[NBT]

So right now, sadly my 6-10 prediction is looking good.

Uhhmmmm........... 5-11. We lose both of the last two games. :(

[Nconroe]

Sounds Like Garrard is out as QB for Jags this next week, that could be bad for our draft position. Although I am ok in general with trying to win every game you can.

[Roy P]

Don't know how it will finish up but as of last week, Cleveland had had the toughest schedule in the league to date so we will probably be picking in front of them if we have the same record.

And I can't believe I just typed a sentence assuming we will have the same record as Cleveland. Wow. They have a rookie 3rd round pick/washed-up Delhomme at QB, a RB nobody wanted, and basically no receivers and will probably have the same or better record than us despite playing a tougher schedule. In just a couple years, Mangini (who I don't even consider to be a good coach) has taken a bunch of castoffs and already made them into a better team than the Texans. But let's just stick to our 43 year plan. As McNair would say, "We're on the right track."

That's why I want Rob Ryan! Look at how many games the Browns have allowed more than 30 points or how many times they held a team under 20. Then compare that to the "top defenses" in the league that actually have offenses that can score, and win Time of Possession.

[HPF Bob]

With the Texans' season done, the first six picks are set.

1. Carolina (2-14)
2. Denver (4-12)
3. Cincinnati (4-12)
4. Buffalo (4-12)
5. Arizona (5-11)
6. Cleveland (5-11)

Picks 7-14 could all be 6-10 if Seattle loses tonight. As best as I can tell right now, it lines up like this:

7. San Francisco
8. Seattle (if they lose tonight)
9. Washington
10. Dallas
11. Tennessee
12. Houston
13. Detroit
14. Minnesota

So, it seems that win cost us five draft spots.

[dadmg]

This is what GBN (http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html) and NFL DraftCountdown have, post-Seahawks game:

1 Carolina 2-14 .574
2 Denver 4-12 .516
3 Buffalo 4-12 .578
4 Cincinnati 4-12 .582
5 Arizona 5-11 .465
6 Cleveland 5-11 .570
7 San Francisco 6-10 .488
8 Tennessee 6-10 .508
9 Dallas 6-10 .512
10 Washington 6-10 .516
11 Houston 6-10 .523

[HPF Bob]

That's probably correct. Sucks that Tennessee beat us handily and then snuck past us for a better draft position. That's why I don't like the strength of schedule as the tie-breaker.

IMO, it ought to be the same tie-breaker as for determining playoff seeding except the worst move on instead of the best.

[Arky]

Not to turn this into a prospects thread but Draft Countdown (http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Rankings.php) has LB Von Miller at #8 and DT Stephen Paea at #11 and they're only using Seniors. There might still be a shot at Miller at #11....

[TheMatrix31]

I'd rather go with secondary or DL than another LB....but Cushing and Ryans have been very nice to us so far as very early picks....I dunno.

Admittedly, I don't know much about college football.

[HPF Bob]

First, they need to determine who the DC will be and if they run a 4-3 or a 3-4. Miller would be a great addition in a 3-4 as a rush LB (although Barwin might be the best candidate for that role). Miller gets upfield very fast and puts pressure on the opponents to adjust. Remember the Cowboys (if the DC is Wade Phillips and he switches us to a 3-4) drafted Demarcus Ware in just about the same spot and he instantly upgraded the Cowboys' defense.

I'm not saying this is exactly how I'd go (is there a CB worth that high a pick?) but if we go 3-4 then Miller becomes a solid pick at that slot.

[painekiller]

Not to turn this into a prospects thread but Draft Countdown (http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Rankings.php) has LB Von Miller at #8 and DT Stephen Paea at #11 and they're only using Seniors. There might still be a shot at Miller at #11....

When the juniors are added in, Miller drops, he is a top 25 pick at worse, most likely a top 15 at best. At number 11, I would grab him if we are going to a 3-4.

If Paea weighs in under 300 then he is a 3-4 DE and as such an unlikely pick for us, we appear loaded with 3-4 DE types.

One good thing about Wade Philips version of the 3-4 is he runs a one gap system for the DEs. That means it is more about penetration and attaching the line verses the more familiar tie up the blocker type system that Nick Fangio ran while here, BTW his Stanford defense had a pretty nice season this year. A guy we might want to target in the 3rd round from Stanford is NT Sione Fua.