April 3, 2009
Book a Flight to Quality?
by Keith Weiland
Keith@IntheBullseye.com

Recent news (or rather rumors at this point) of substance abuse among several first round prospects in the NFL Draft ought to have several draftniks pushing up their glasses and re-ordering their mock draft selections. Specifically, local first round faves such as USC linebackers Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing have been tainted with talk of steroid use while Boston College defensive tackle has been reported to have used marijuana identified via testing at the Combine in February.

It seems like there is now more evidence than ever before that the Texans should consider any and every opportunity to trade down from the 15th overall pick. But in a draft where the first round talent is projected to be subpar, how much trade compensation is needed to move even farther away from acquiring any of it?

Recall the 2005 NFL Draft, particularly the first round selections. This is the year the Texans owned the 13th overall selection, similarly positioned to where they find themselves in 2009. Also note that the overall quality of the first rounders that year failed to reach their drafted potential.

Hindsight is of course helpful, but even then, many draft followers believed that 2005 was a weak class at the top, and that has proven true. Sitting in the middle, the Texans arguably lost very little in terms of first round pick quality sliding down three picks while gaining meaningful compensation, a third round pick in the following year’s draft that resulted in tackle Eric Winston.

But was there a better move to be made by the Texans in 2005? The team, still employing the 3-4 defensive scheme, was rumored to have interest in adding some pass rush. Two players that appeared to be desirable to the team, Demarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman, we considered quality prospects with only a small chance of lasting all the way to the 13th pick.

Ware went 11th to the Cowboys, and Merriman followed him with the next pick to the Chargers. Perhaps disappointed that their edge rusher was no longer on the board, the Texans dealt the 13th pick to the Saints.

Yay, the Texans traded down.

So fast forward again to the 2009 draft. The Texans have their full allotment of picks this year, plus they added an extra fourth round selection from the Vikings after sending quarterback Sage Rosenfels to the Purple. Both the owner Bob McNair and the head coach Gary Kubiak have stated the need to acquire a player in this draft that will provide an immediate impact this season.

Trading down could be a viable option this year. The Texans find themselves in a desirable position for another team to move up to their spot, particularly if a player in a high-demand position such as quarterback or left tackle is surprisingly available. The Eagles, with multiple first round picks at 21st and 28th overall seem like ideal trading partners.

But as the overall field of first round quality appears to be shrinking from small to smaller, the usual slam-dunk hypothesis to move down and acquire both the desired player and an extra pick or two to boot is suddenly not such a clear decision to make. Let’s hope the Texans remember the 2005 draft and weigh their options appropriately.

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